Author Archives: L J Furman, MBA

About L J Furman, MBA

Analyst here and Director of Information Technology with an MBA in Managing for Sustainability.

What If … Gore had been President?

In the XB Cold Fingers song, “Sunbathing In Siberia,” (Listen / Try or Buy / Lyrics ) Al Gore I wrote,

“If Gore had been awarded the White House
he’d chain us to Kyoto, don’t ya see.
There’d be solar panels on the rooftops,
wind power, clean power, almost free.”

While the song is a tongue-in-cheek look at energy, climate change, and the election of 2000; what if Gore had been the 43rd President?

In this series of posts, I’ll explore this scenario in terms of what it would have meant for the Supreme Court, foreign policy and defense.

  • Who would Gore have appointed to the Supreme Court?
  • How would they have decided Citizens United and Florence v Burlington?
  • What about September 11 – would the 19 terrorists have been able to hijack 4 planes and crash two into the World Trade Center and one into the Pentagon?
  • If so, would we have gone to war in Iraq and Afghanistan?
  • If not, would we have gone to war in Iraq anyway?
  • And what about Iran? Israel? The Arab Spring?
  • And the economy here in the United States?

This next post in the series looks at the Supreme Court. Stay tuned.

Buggy-Whips, Railroads & Oil: Systems Thinking on Fuel

West Texas PumpjackAt the 6th Annual Babson Energy Conference, “Energy, Environment, & Entrepreneurship: Challenging Assumptions, Changing Perceptions”, here, held March 30, 2012, Cimbria Badenhausen, (LinkedIn), an alum of the Marlboro College MBA in Managing for Sustainability, asked Tahmid Mizan, Senior Planning Advisor of Exxon Mobil, “Are you an ENERGY company or a PETROLEUM company?”

Mr. Mizan, of Exxon, didn’t answer the question.

Henry Ford, when asked why he doesn’t use focus groups, is believed to have said, “If I asked people what they wanted, they’d tell me faster horses.” (HBR) Continue reading →

Justice Scalia on the Second Amendment

US Supreme Court Justice Antonin ScaliaJustice Antonin Scalia, interviewed on Fox News, talking about the July 20, 2012, massacre Aurora, Colorado, said,

Obviously the amendment does not apply to arms that cannot be hand carried. It’s to ‘keep and bear’ so it doesn’t apply to cannons but I suppose there are hand-held rocket launchers that can bring down airplanes that will have to be decided…. My starting point and probably my ending point will be what limitations are within the understood limitations that society had at the time.

The segment can be watched here, on YouTube. Continue reading →

Sustainable Investing, Value Investing & Speculation

Earth from Space

Investing for Sustainable Value – changing the paradigm – is critical – because we only have one earth.

This post suggests that investing in Cree, the Ford Motor Company, GT Advanced Technologies, Lighting Sciences, and Solazyme, are investments in companies that are shifting the paradigm toward sustainability. Investments in Cree, Lighting Sciences and Solazyme appear speculative at this time. Investments in Ford and GT Advanced Technologies appear to be “value” investments with significant margins of safety.

“Sustainable development is that which meets the needs of the present generation without compromising the abilities of future generations to meet their needs.” This canonical definition was offered in “Our Common Future,” a report to the United Nations by the Brundland Commission in 1987. Report here, see also wikipedia. “Sustainable Investing,” according to Krosinsky and Robins, is “an approach to investing driven by the long-term economic, environmental and social risks and opportunities facing the global economy.” Continue reading →

The Second Amendment – Revisited

What does the Second Amendment mean in the context of the Aurora Massacre? Columbine? Virginia Tech? Rep. Giffords Town Meeting? The assassination attempt on President Reagan? The assassination attempts on President Ford? The assassinations of President John Kennedy, Robert Kennedy and Martin Luther King Jr? And conditions in other countries, Syria? Iraq? Iran?

Fat Man and Little Boy“A well-regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms shall not be infringed.”

US Constitution, Bill of Rights, Amendment 2.

Does this give each of us the right to our own nuclear warheads and other weapons of mass destruction? If not, what right does it convey? Continue reading →

Apple & Blackberry – Yesterday, Today, & Tomorrow

Blackberry 850 - 2-way messagingBack in 1999, I was walking down a hall to the data center of a US Navy base in Virginia, when I noticed a sign that said “Cell Phones Prohibited. Deadly Force Is Authorized in this Area.” Fortunately my cellphone didn’t ring.

One of my colleagues had an Apple Newton. Just as the Osborne and Kaypro led to the Compaq and the laptops, PDAs running the Newton operating system and PDAs from Go Computers led to the Palm Pilot, and ultimately to the iPod, iPhone, and iPad, but that’s another story.

Research In Motion had just introduced the Blackberry 850 handheld. My colleagues in the financial industry had them. I understood the potential and wanted one. That too is another story.

 

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Cyberwar: USA & Israel v Iran, China v USA, Russia v The World

Iranian Pres. Achmadinejad at Natanz

Iranian Pres. Achmadinejad at Natanz.

Focusing on “Operation Olympic Games,” the US efforts behind the Flame and Stuxnet cyber attacks, Mischa Glenny, in “A Weapon We Can’t Control,” an op-ed in the NY Times, 6/24/12, says the U.S. has “fired the starting gun in a new arms race … cyberweaponry.” However, Mr. Glenny ignores efforts by hackers in China and from the former Soviet Union.

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Co-Ops 102: Credit Unions

“Not for profit, not for charity, but for service.”

– Credit Union motto

“The National Bank at a profit sells road maps for the soul to the old folks home and the college.”

–   Bob Dylan, “Tombstone Blues”

Graph showing deposits of top 20 credit unions and top four banks in the US

Back in 2010, over 9,000 credit unions in the United States had over $500 Billion in deposits. In November, 2011, the top 20 credit unions had $149 Billion in deposits, while Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citibank, the four largest U.S. banks, had over $4.0 trillion. However, as of the end of the first quarter, 2012, credit unions had over $1.0 trillion in deposits – their deposits doubled since 2010.  What happened?

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Co-Ops 101: More than Brown Rice, Granola, & Honey

When they think of cooperatives, Americans may think of hippies and brown rice, granola, and food co-ops like the Brattleboro Food Co-op, in Vermont, and the Flatbush Food Coop, in Brooklyn, New York. Israelis tend to think first of Kibbutzim and Moshavim, the collective farms of the early days of the Yishuv and the State of Israel that have evolved into corporations.  Eastern Europeans may think of the Kolhoz, the collective farms of the failed Soviet state.

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NY Times: Hydraulic Fracturing: “Cleaner than Coal”

Helicopter Cruising Greenland Ice Sheet

Helicopter Cruising Greenland Ice Sheet

“To Make Fracturing Safer,” editorial, in May 11, 2012, begins “Gas … is cleaner than coal” and concludes “Oil and and gas drilling will always be a risky business; the administration cannot let pass this opportunity to make it safer.”

Clean and Green within 18 is the opportunity the Administration should not let pass. We should – MUST – shift to 100% sustainable energy in 18 years! Solar, wind and other sustainable energy systems do not require fuel and day-to-day operations do not create waste. Thus these “negafuelwatt” systems are clean; not just “cleaner than coal.” And they are also cleaner than oil, gas, and nuclear power.

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Facebook IPO: The Sound of Bubbles Popping

Soap Bubble

Soap Bubble, by Irfan Mirza

 Facebook went public on Friday, May 18, 2012. Trading for FB opened at $42.025 per share, giving the company a market capitalization of $72.76 Billion. However, Facebook closed it’s first day as a publicly traded stock down 9.3% at $38.105 per share. On it’s second day, Monday, May 21, it opened at $36.53 per share and closed at $34.03 per share, dropping another 6.8%, and 19% from the opening price. It’s sliding is raising eyebrows in the financial media (Business Week, Chicago Tribune, Reuters).

A Bubble Popping, by Richard Heeks

Bubble Pop, by Richard Heeks

But the question may be less “Why is Facebook’s stock price dropping?” or “Who’s to blame?” than “What should be it’s price?“

GMO‘s Jeremy Grantham talks about “Reversion to the Mean.” The mean, however, for a stock with 2 days of history is not statistically meaningful. So I compared it to Apple, Google, IBM, Microsoft, and Oracle, pulling data off of the Internet at Finance.Google.Com after the close of trading on Monday, May 21, 2012.

(Image Links: Soap Bubble & Bubble Pop)

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Six Sigma & The Law of The Hammer

The Bell Curve showing 3 standard deviations

Bell Curve showing Mean, μ & Standard Deviation, σ.

“The child who receives a hammer for Christmas will discover that everything needs pounding.”

One of my friends asked about “Six Sigma,” famously used by General Electric and Motorola to enhance the quality on their production lines, and famously used by Home Depot and 3M for short term gain and long term failure, (see “Six Sigma, So Yesterday,” on Business Week OnLine, here).

“I understand that Six Sigma means a very high quality system – with only 3.4 errors per million units,” my friend said. “What I don’t understand,” he added, “is the definition in terms of Standard Deviation and Normal Distribution. 99.99966% of the values will fall within 6 Standard Deviations of the Mean, compared to 99.73% of the values falling within 3 Standard Deviations of the Mean. What’s a standard deviation? And what’s a normal distribution?” Continue reading →

Cleaning Up In Hospitals

Germs on the hand

Germs on the Hand. Courtesy Talk is Cheap

5% of hospital patients develop an infection. And the majority of those infections are acquired from the hands of Health Care Providers.

Medicare pays 40% of the nation’s hospital bills. (This, in and of itself, is an argument for a single payer system – one single payer already pays 40% of hospital bills. And it’s the Government.) However, Medicare does not reimburse hospitals for their mistakes. It shouldn’t. If I borrow your car, and run out of gas, it’s my fault, not yours. Note that this is an example of the government doing something right.

Because of this policy decision, medical accidents went from being a source of hospital revenue to a massive financial drain. Medical institutions were forced into the business of disease prevention, at least once people were in their care.

According to the Committee to Reduce Infection Deaths statistics, (PDF) hospital acquired infections kill more people in America than AIDS, Breast Cancer and Auto Accidents combined. What is worse is that 5% of the patients in hospitals acquire infections in the hospital, and the vast majority of the patients that acquire such infections in hospitals get them from the hands of health care providers.

More details after the click.

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Eating Any Time Soon? Brooklyn Food Conference, Sat. May 12.

An Urban Garden in Brooklyn, NY

An urban garden in Brooklyn, NY

The Brooklyn Food Coalition presents the Brooklyn Food Conference, May 12, 2012, from 9:00 AM to 6:00 PM. It will be a day of Workshops, Expo, Youth Summit Policy Roundtable, Demos, Music, Art, Meetups – and good HEALTHY food.

Where? Brooklyn Tech, 29 Fort Greene Place, Brooklyn, NY 11217. Admission is free. Continue reading →

Troubling situation at Entergy-run Nuclear Plan in Michigan

Palisades Nuclear Plant

Palisades Nuclear Plant, Lake Michegan

In A Return To ‘Safety First’ For Michigan Nuclear Plant, NPR correspondent Lindsey Smith reports,

The Palisades nuclear power plant in Michigan had five unplanned shutdowns last year. It’s one of the area’s biggest employers, and its safety record is one of the worst in the country. Now it’s trying to prove to federal regulators that it can meet their standards.

On the shores of Lake Michigan, the Palisades Power Plant is tucked in between tall sand dunes in Covert Township, Mich., at the southern edge of Van Buren State Park. Kathy Wagaman, who heads the chamber of commerce in South Haven, 7 miles north of Palisades … said  “They’ve been a very good neighbor” … “and I just feel confident that they’re taking good care of this.”

The title, however, says it all. “A RETURN to ‘Safety-First.’ Clearly, based on their record, safety has not been Entergy’s number one priority at Palisades.  Marcy, at Empty Wheel, presents a first hand report on the tritium leak of Sept, 2011, here.

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