Author Archives: L J Furman, MBA

About L J Furman, MBA

Analyst here and Director of Information Technology with an MBA in Managing for Sustainability.

Nuclear Power – or Un Clear Power

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, has voted to allow Georgia Power to spend $14 Billion of ratepayer monies to build two reactors, Vogtle 3 and 4 near Waynesboro, Georgia. These would be the first new nuclear plants in the US in 35 years. Opponents say “we don’t need the power, but the utility wants the revenue stream.” Supporting this allegation Georgia Power plans to charge ratepayers – customers – for the costs of construction WHILE BUILDING THE PLANTS – BEFORE THE ARE ONLINE. see Georgia Power – Nuclear – Recovering Financing Costs.

Scott Peterson, of the Nuclear Energy Institute, was quoted on Morning Edition on Friday, 2/10/12, here, ” saying,

Nuclear plants, because they are very large, 24/7 power producers, really anchor the entire U.S. grid for electricity,”

He also said,

“Gas prices are unpredictable, and so is energy from wind and solar.”

He’s wrong on all three counts.

Gas prices are rising. They may be difficult to predict on a day to day basis, but the trend is upward.
Similarly, solar and wind are also predictable. The Department of Energy, DoE, knows precisely how much wind and sun passes over every square inch of the United States, and how much sunlight hits every square inch of the United States over the course of a year. And how much electricty a wind turbine or a photovoltaic solar energy system will produce anywhere in the US. The PVWatts solar calculator, for example,here, http://www.nrel.gov/rredc/pvwatts/, tells you how much power a solar array will produce over the course of a year.
And nuclear is not 24 x 7. While the waste is 24 hours by 7 days per week by 365 days per year by ten thousand years, nuclear plants are not 24 by 7 days by 365. They are more like 24 by 7 by 350; they are shut down for about a month for refueling every 18 months. Nuclear plants are also shut down unexpectedly due to events like hurricanes, earthquakes, floods.

The Fort Calhoun reactor, on the Missouri River in Nebraska was shut down for refueling in May, 2011 . It stayed shut down due to flooding. It was offline throughout the summer and fall, (my coverage here and here) and as far as I know it is still offline. According to David Lochbaum, of the Union of Concerned Scientists, the shutdown cost the plant’s owners $1 million per day – $100 million if it was brought back online in September, $250 million if it is still offline. And I would hazard a guess that the owners asked for and received permission to charge the ratepayers those $1.0 million per day. (As far as I know the plant is still offline. I will update this post when I have more information.)

Regarding the Vogtle plants … the plan is to build two Westinghouse AP 1000 pressurized water reactors, here. Theses are 1154 MWe plant, that, according to Westinghouse,

“use the forces of nature and simplicity of design to enhance plant safety and operations and reduce construction costs.”

They are forecast to cost $14 Billion. $14 Billion divided by 2,308 MWe is $6.065 per MWe. That does not include the costs of security, fuel or waste management

Solar and wind costs less, takes a lot less time to deploy, do not require fuel, do not produce dangerous toxic wastes, do not present a target to terrorists and do not require special security infrastructures.

Pulling Water out of Thick Air – The Vapour Inc PURE WATER GENIE

Earth from Space

Beduins in the Sahara, Morocco

While water covers 73% of the earth’s surface, clean water is, in many parts of the world, a scarce and expensive resource, and is increasingly becoming more scarce and more expensive. It is common in the eastern and central parts of the US, however, even here we experience water shortages. Frakking, coal processing, cooling nuclear power plants, and other industrial processes require clean water, and produce dirty water, and water shortages are predicted in 36 states over the next 5 years.

Yet water is in the air. It’s easier to pull water out of a river or a stream, or even out of the ground, where it exists in the liquid state, than to condense water vapor out of the air, but this is about to change. And water vapor in the air is cleaner than water on the ground.

The Vapour Inc Pure Water Genie ™ condenses water out of the air, and uses about 1 kwh per gallon, depending on humidity and air temperature. The units come in various sizes for personal or office applications to embassy scale sizes.

My friends at Vapour Inc, call it the “Pure Water Genie.” I would call it a “Cloud Machine,” or a “Box of Rain.”

Consider the American Embassy in Damascus, or Tehran, or a military base in Afghanistan. The Vapour Pure Water Genie is a source of pure water in hostile territory. If the American Embassy in Tehran had it’s own discrete and independent water supply back in 1979, our military could have been better able to secure the site. If remote military bases in various operating theaters have their own discrete and independent water supplies, then we don’t have to allocate resources to move water in hostile territory; our logistics positions are stronger. If we can pull water out of thick air, we don’t need to burn fuel or risk lives transporting it. If it’s coupled with a solar energy system then our embassies we don’t need fuel for generators in countries like Egypt, Iraq, Syria, Pakistan, Russia and China, which are either unstable, potentially hostile, have limited supplies of clean water, an unstable energy supply and distribution system.

The Vapour Genie uses electricity to pull water out of air without plastic and fuel used to bottle and transport bottled water. The water is chemical-free, with purity second only to distillation. This is unmatched by bottled water, and in some cases tap water. The six-stage filtration includes: Sediment, Sterilize, Carbon Block, TCR, UF, UV. As fuel prices go up, so will the cost of transporting bottled water. As the costs of “disposing” and recycling plastics increases, so will the cost of bottled water. But while fuel prices and plastic recycling costs will go up, solar energy systems will be stable or drop due to advances in engineering. (See my post from Dec. 17, 2011, “Moore’s Law Applied to Solar Power,” here.)

The Pure Water Genies perform optimally in 70% to 80% humidity and temperatures between 75 F and 84 F (24 C and 29 C). We can’t control ambient humidity, but we can control temperature. In Kabul, Afghanistan, for example, in a controlled room with 78 F, the humidity will range from 33% in August to 77% in February. The Water Genie 5000 will produce 600 liters per day in August and 4650 liters per day in February.

These could replace water coolers in offices across the United States – and according to John at Vapour Inc., there are 12 million today. And these could provide a secure water supply for our embassies and for service personnel on missions around the world.

Unemployment Drops Slightly in January, 2012

In Jobless Rate Fell To 8.3% in January, 2012, as, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, approximately 243,000 new jobs were added in the economy, here. This is good. But an unemployment rate of 8.3% means there are 13 million people out of work and looking for jobs. That doesn’t count the millions that are out of work and not even looking. We need 13 million new jobs – 52 months of 243,000 new jobs per month.

On NPR’s Morning Edition, Friday, Feb. 3, 2011, here, Renee Montagne interviewed Yuki Noguchi on the Bureau of Labor Statistics January jobs report, the Employment Situation Summary, here, on jobs in the economy. Early on, at about 1 minute 30 seconds, Ms. Montagne asked, “What about government jobs?”

Ms. Noguchi replied, “Government job loss is minimal.”

This is a critical piece of the puzzle. Toward the end of the segment, at about 3 minutes, 14 seconds, Ms. Noguchi said “let’s say the hiring stays at this level, with nearly 13 million people unemployed, it would take nearly four years for all those people to find jobs. And that number doesn’t count people who are not even looking.”

President Roosevelt and John Maynard Keynes proved that during economic times such as these, while business owners are capable of hiring, they are reluctant to hire because they are reluctant to risk capital. The only entities that are both willing and able are agencies of the government and not-for-profits such as schools, hospitals, etc. This is because they serve their stakeholders, not their stockholders.

–

Keynes wrote his seminal General theory on Employment, Money, and Interest During the Depression. He looked at the classical theory which said, essentially, the Depression can’t be happening, and at the empirical data which said “It is happening” and concluded that if the theory is out of sync with the facts, then the theory must be flawed. His theory is described by Paul Krugman, here, and Aaron Schwartz, here.

21 of 2011 – Most Significant Events of the Year

Tweet While it ain’t over till it’s over, 2011 is over. A lot that could have happened, didn’t. Obama didn’t resign, Donald Trump didn’t throw his hat into the ring or divorce his current wife and marry one or more Kardashians. Newt Gingrich threw his hat into the ring, but also didn’t divorce his current wife and marry one or more Kardashians. These are the most significant events of 2011.

Japan, March, 2011 . Nebraska, June, 2011. An earthquake triggered a tsunami which slammed Japan with a 30 foot wave, which shut down twelve nuclear reactors at three sites, triggering melt-downs in three reactors at the Fukushima Dai-ichi site. We now see radioactive particles in food and soil in Fukushima Prefecture. The United States government recommended an evacuation of a 50 mile radius from the plant – this is a semi-circular no-man’s land of 3,927 square miles. It would be 7,854 square miles but the plant was on the coast and therefore half of this radioactive no-man’s land is in the Pacific Ocean. The environmental ramifications of radioactive materials spreading over Japan and flowing into the Pacific Ocean are not known (Popular Logistics click here, here, here), however, liabilities to TEPCO and Japan are estimated to $100 Billion (click here). In the United States, two nuclear power plants on the Missouri River, the Fort Calhoun and Cooper plants, were shut-down when the Missouri River flooded (Popular Logistics, here). Eight nuclear power plants from South Carolina to Connecticut were shut down in the aftermath of the earthquake that struck with an epicenter in Virginia August 23, 2011, and Hurricane Irene a few days later (Popular Logistics, here). In the words of Mycle Schneider, describing the World Watch Institute report he authored, “The industry was arguably on life support before Fukushima. When the history of this industry is written, Fukushima is likely to introduce its final chapter,” (click here). However, the three melt-downs at Fukushima, coupled with the melt-down at Chernobyl in 1986 and the partial melt-down at Three Mile Island in 1979, suggest a probability of one melt-down every 14 years.
South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Vermont, August, 2011. Hurricane Irene covered an area of approximately 170,000 square miles, or about the size of California.”
Washington, DC, December. 2011. After 4,000 Americans were killed, about 50,000 were wounded, and $1 trillion was spent over 8 years, President Obama ended the American mission in Iraq that Congress authorized in October, 2002, President Bush started in March, 2003 and declared “Accomplished” in May, 2003 (for a timeline, click here).
Washington DC, Abbottabod, Pakistan, May, 2011, American soldiers, on orders from the White House, found and killed Osama bin Laden in a compound in Pakistan (NY Times, click here).
Yemen, In summer, 2011, American military forces, using a drone aircraft piloted from the ground via remote control, from the ground, targeted and killed Anwar al Awlaki, an American born Al Queda operative in Yemen (NY Times, click here).
The hacking group “Anonymous” broke into the computers of the security consulting group “Stratfor” and found 44,188 Encrypted Passwords, of which roughly 50% could be easily cracked. 73.7% of decrypted passwords were weak” (NPR, click here).
The “Stuxnet” computer worm virus, harmelss on PC’s runing MS Windows, Mac OS X, and Linux, and other computers, appears to have targeted centrifuges used in the Iranian uranium enrichment facilities. While the viruses were discovered in 2010, they became understood in 2011. The virus caused the centrifuges to spin out of control, wrecking themselves (NY Times, here, NPR here, CNET here, Wikipedia here). Continue reading →

Apple, Blackberry, and Classical Physics

In “The World Will Not End, and Other Predictions for 2012,” I wrote “Apple and IBM will continue to thrive. Microsoft will grow, slightly. Dell and HP will thrash. A share of Apple, which sold for $11 in December, 2001, and $380 in Dec. 2011, will sell for $480 in Dec. 2012.”

Apple has already spiked to 427.75. If I’m proven wrong it may be because I underestimated Apple’s projected future value.

What about Research in Motion, RIMM? They invented mobile e-mail, with the first “Blackberry” in ’98 or ’99. When you got paged, you could write a response, send it, and it would be received almost immediately. It was tied to email, integrated with Microsoft Exchange or Lotus Notes. I remember it well. As a database administrator on Wall Street I carried one for two years. In my current professional role I have carried one for six and managed a Blackberry Enterprise Server, along with other servers. In the late 90’s it was basically a pager with a keyboard and software that did e-mail. Today, you can also take pictures, browse the web – gives new meaning to the word ‘crawl’- listen to music, make phone calls.

But what will be the value of Research in Motion next year? Still around $8.5 B? Down to $6.2 B? Back up to about $30 B? If they don’t change, I imagine the value will be $4.0 to $6.0 B, or they will be a division of another company, such as AT&T, NorTel, Winstream, HP, or a private equity firm.

Here’s the basic financial data on the companies:

Basic Data on Apple and Research in Motion
Stock	Price	Mkt Cap	EPS	P/E	52 Wk Low	52 Wk High
AAPL	419.81	390.18	27.67	15.17	310.5	427.75
RIMM	16.17	8.47	4.24	3.81	12.45	70.54
Table 1

At first glance the company looks like a tremendous investment: RIMM is a $8.7 Billion company with no debt, earns $4.24 per share (EPS), has a Net Profit Margin of 17.13, and the stock only costs $16.17 per share (as of close of trading Friday, January 13, 2012). The ratio of stock price to earnings (P/E) is 3.81. Their network is secure and robust. A Blackberry handheld should be on the belt of every first responder. They are lighter and probably as secure, more reliable, more robust than the Motorola units carried today, and they also do instant messaging, virtually instant e-mail, and come with a built-in camera. They don’t belong in your “go-bag;” they belong on your belt.

At second glance, an analyst put the intrinsic value at $22.00 per share or $12 billion (up from $16 per share and $8.7 Billion) saying “the network is worth $12.50 per share, their patents are worth $7.50 per share, and they have $2.00 per share in the bank.

Compare this to Apple. A $390 Billion company, Apple has no debt, EPS of 27.67, NPM of 23.95, and the stock only costs 419.81 per share. The P/E is 15.17. Apple also makes an instant communications device, but it doesn’t have it’s own network. Research in Motion does. So if the AT&T, Verizon, or other network is down you will still be able to send a “PIN to PIN,” “BBM” or E-Mail with a Blackberry, but not with an iPhone. On the other hand, there is an iPhone app that turns the camera flash into a flashlight.

These are summarized in Table 1, “Basic Data,” above and Table 2 “Other Financial Information,” below. (Note: all data are from Google).

Other Financial Information
	Debt to Assets	Return on Avg Assets	Net Profit Margin
AAPL	0	27.06	23.95
RIMM	0	29.56	17.13
Table 2

The data also show that Apple, with a price of $419.81 is close to it’s historic 52-week high of $427.75, while, at $16.17 RIMM is close to it’s historic 52-week low of $12.45. Looking at the chart from last year, Apple was steady from January to July (and you could have lost money by investing in it at $360 in January and selling at $310 in July) but increased after July. Research in Motion, on the other hand, dropped pretty steadily from February 17, 2011 to December 20, 2011.

What’s next for APPLE and Research in Motion? What was it that Newton said? “A body in motion tends to stay in motion unless acted upon by an outside force.” I have a lot of confidence in Apple. It’s in motion. Rumors about the iPad 3 are that it will be lighter, faster, and have better graphics. They will make improvements on the iPads, iPhones, iPods, iMacs, Mac Books, iOS, OS X, the applications software, and who knows, they may even get Apple TV right this year. (They will, sooner or later.) As far as Research In Motion; some of their products – the Blackberry hand-helds and Blackberry Enterprise Server software are terrific. However, I would have a lot more confidence in the company’s future if I was an “Outside force” hired to act upon the body. (I would also kill to work at APPLE.)

Reality, Pseudo-Reality, and China

Does Freedom of Speech imply the responsibility to speak honestly – even when what is not what people want to hear? John Ehrenfeld, on his blog, in discussing the US Presidential Campaign, noted (here),

“[M]y concerns and consternation at the virtually complete absence of truth from [a GOP debate in New hampshire]. Not only was the truth gone, but the participants appeared almost gleeful about speaking freed from the constraints that truth-telling creates…. I recall an interview with Eric Fehrnstrom, Mitt Romney’s campaign manager, who said, in response to a question about the untruths being uttered by Romney, that this was none of his concern; it was up to the media to provide the facts.”

I addressed this in a wry manner with “Ridin’ the Magic Carpet” on XB Cold Fingers.

Richard Seireeni, on the Chelsea Green site (here), suggests that our biggest challenges, perhaps threats, come from outsoucing manufacturing of American branded consumer goods to China.

And in the New York Times, Paul Krugman explains how America is not a corporation (here).

For one thing, there’s no simple bottom line. For another, the economy is vastly more complex than even the largest private company.

Most relevant…, however, is … giant corporations sell the great bulk of what they produce to other people, not to their own employees — whereas even small countries sell most of what they produce to themselves, and big countries like America are overwhelmingly their own main customers.

Yes, there’s a global economy. But six out of seven American workers are employed in service industries, which are largely insulated from international competition, and even our manufacturers sell much of their production to the domestic market.

And the fact that we mostly sell to ourselves makes an enormous difference when you think about policy.

Consider what happens when a business engages in ruthless cost-cutting. From the point of view of the firm’s owners (though not its workers), the more costs that are cut, the better. Any dollars taken off the cost side of the balance sheet are added to the bottom line.

But the story is very different when a government slashes spending in the face of a depressed economy. Look at Greece, Spain, and Ireland, all of which have adopted harsh austerity policies. In each case, unemployment soared, because cuts in government spending mainly hit domestic producers. And, in each case, the reduction in budget deficits was much less than expected, because tax receipts fell as output and employment collapsed.

Ehrenfeld, observing the irony in a GOP Debate on the day of Vaclav Havel’s death, wrote about truth;

Havel’s signature accomplishment [was] pointing out that people have to live in truth or lose their freedom…

Truth, as Havel says, is essential to our existence as a free people at all times, but perhaps even more now as we become ever more aware of the complexity of the world we live in. Ideologies are the epitome of denial of the interconnectedness of this world, where ties grow more in number and strength everyday. Actions here have effect in places and times we do not expect or ignore. Are we really going to bomb away the so-called threat of Iranian nuclear weapons with no other consequences? Will freeing the market from all government oversight and restraints create wealth for everybody when the results of the last few decades show us the exact opposite? Ideologies, either from the left or right, are all dangerous, but our two-party system and the means their leaders communicate with us pushes themes into ideological positions frequently compressed into tiny sound bites or political ads….

There are many, many truths out there that are getting clobbered. If any of these men (no women left) are elected, they will be expected to act in accordance to these statements, ignoring what they find. Obama was faced with a financial crisis and its fallout on the economy as he moved in. He certainly was not the creator of these problems. It is interesting and ironic that the name Bush, on whose watch these problems started to arise, has been barely mentioned during this campaign, and not at all during these recent “debates.” I continue to put quotes around this word as real debates require some depth in discussing issues and solutions. Truthfulness would require putting the current messes into context, a least attempting to do so. I admit that would be difficult because the big messes are all a result of our failures to recognize complexity and act accordingly.

Richard Seireeni on the Chelsea Green site (here) wrote:

In the run up to the Republican Convention, we’ve heard everything and nothing. We’ve heard Newt, Mitt and Ron go on about issues that have little if any impact on jobs and national security, but not a single word about the real reason we have massive and permanent unemployment….In 2010, we imported 364 billion dollars in goods from China while we exported only 91 billion to them. That is nearly a 4 to 1 trade imbalance….

The Chinese people have become admirable competitors, but their hybrid Totalitarian-Capitalist government is not our friend. They don’t share our philosophies on human rights, labor rights, or geo-political issues, like containment of Iran’s nuclear ambitions. In fact, China is a major importer of Iranian oil, in opposition to U.S.-sponsored trade restrictions, and has probably received access to our recently downed drone aircraft as a reward.

While GOP candidates are preoccupied with Terrorism and Obamacare, the People’s Liberation Army has been quietly developing a new advanced stealth fighter, Predator-style drones, the first in a planned fleet of blue water aircraft carriers, an advanced rocket and space program, and a growing nuclear arsenal. Those cheap consumer products have turned China into a super power one purchase at a time. Every time an American patriot buys a Made-in-China product at Walmart, he or she is investing in China’s military expansion, which forces us to invest more in our military to counter the threat.

Sustainability v Globalization

“Think Global, Act Local,” – Anonymous.

“Re-localization is a critical step in moving toward sustainability. The “global economy” is one of the culprits of our present mess,” – John Ehrenfeld.

“Sustainability is the possibility that human and other life will flourish on the planet forever,” – John Ehrenfeld.

Ehrenfeld, author of “Sustainability by Design,” here, lectures at Marlboro College in its MBA in Managing for Sustainability.

In “Italy’s accordion Industry: Tiny and Thriving“, NPR’s Morning Edition, on 1/9/12, discussed globalization in the context of the accordion industry in Italy. The piece began: “More than 70% of Italy’s gross domestic product comes from small businesses – and they’re not growing. Economists are worried that this will make it impossible for Italy to climb out of it’s massive $2.6 Trillion debt.”It concluded “But until more small companies [coalesce into giants like Prada] things in … Italy will stay out of tune with the global eonomy.”

But the piece also reported that the Italian accordion makers focus on quality. They don’t make many instruments – make about 20% of what they made in their heyday, one company makes 180 to 200 per month, but they make the Ferraris of the accordion world. More accordions are made today are by China, Inc., but those are cheap, low quality things. The Italian instruments sell for up to $50,000 each, to professional musicians such as Bjork and “The Decemberists.”

The story also asks about the long term consequences of 70% of a nation’s GDP coming from small businesses?

But it doesn’t ask:

What is the standard of living and quality of life for craftspeople in Italy? Are people happy? Fulfilled?
What is the wage and income differential between the workers and the owners? Between the manufacturers and the suppliers?
How interconnected are the local economies? Are they using locally sourced materials? Is the economy local? How much of the economy is local?
Aside from Italy’s debt, is their economy sustainable? Another way of asking this is “Could Italy service the debt with a 30 or 50 year payment schedule, with interest set at 2.5% or 3.5%? According to the CIA Factbook, (here) Italy has a population of about 61 million people. While NPR puts the Italian debt at $2.6 Trillion, according to CNN Money, (here) Italy’s debt is about $262 Billion. That’s a per capita debt load of about $4300, according to CNN Money, and $41,995. $4,300 doesn’t seem too bad. Even $42,000 isn’t too bad, over a person’s lifetime. In the United States, $43,000 buys one or two years of college at the undergraduate level.

As noted, the piece ended with “But until more small companies [coalesce into giants like Prada] things in … Italy will stay out of tune with the global eonomy.” This leads me to my final unanswered questions:

Is it a bad thing for Italy to be out of tune with the global economy? and

Is Italy really out of tune with the global economy?

The first two things that come to my mind when I think of “The Global Economy” are China, Inc. / WalMart, and oil. (I see China, Inc. and WalMart as one thing, but that’s another story). I see environmental degredation, poverty of mind, body, and spirit, and working conditions that equate to slavery.Personally, I’d rather be making accordions for a living wage in Italy, where I have a chance to open my own shop, than in China where conditions are equivalent to slavery.

Bjork, a singer from Reykjavík, Iceland, and the Decemberists, from Portland, Oregon, are buying Italian accordions. They would rather spend $50,000 on accordions from Italy than $399 on accordions from China. This suggests that the Italian accordion makers are, in fact, in the global economy, albeit on a different scale of that of the Chinese and one that economists don’t understand.

This brings me to the olive trees pictured above. Olive trees take a long time to mature – 35 to 150 years. But they live, thrive, and produce olives – for a very long time – hundreds of years, thousands of years with luck and proper cultivation. (Achaia Olive Groves).

And just as I would rather be making accordions that sell for $50,000 than those that sell for $399, I would rather sell 200 units for $50,000 each than 25,063 units for $399.

How to Deal With Iran: Sanctions? Bomb? Rescue?

While the editors of Popular Logistics understand that it is important to prepare for emergencies – and carry flashlights, per the 911 Commission, we also understand that it is important to avoid emergencies.

We also note that President Theodor Roosevelt once said “Speak softly but carry a big stick.”

ABC News reports the statements made by the candidates for President in regards to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Most agree that Iran wants nuclear power and nuclear weapons.

ABC, Quoting Candidate Barack Obama, from 2008 as saying, “In confronting these threats, I will not take the military option off the table. But our first measure must be sustained, direct and aggressive diplomacy…. I will always keep the threat of military action on the table to defend our security and our ally, Israel.” The article did not mention the Stuxnet attack on the Iranian Nuclear program, which has been reported to have slowed the development of nuclear technology in Iran. While the origin of the computer virus is unknown, it is reported to be American or American and Israeli.

Newt Gingrich supports regime change in Iran, and using military action if necessary “as a last recourse.” (ABC News).

Jon Huntsman: “Realistically, you’ve got to have all options on the table. You’ve got to be prepared to use all elements of national power.” (ABC News)

Ron Paul: “Why do we have to bomb so many countries? Why are we [having] 900 bases in 130 countries and we’re totally bankrupt? . . . We need a strong national defense . . . and we need to only go to war with a declaration of war.” Paul has called sanctions against Iran an “act of war” that could damage the global economy by impeding the flow of oil. “I think they solution is to do a lot less a lot sooner, and mind our own business, and we wouldn’t have this threat of another war.” (ABC News)

Mitt Romney: ‘Ultimately, regime change is what’s going to be necessary,” says Romney, who believes both “covert and overt” actions should be used to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons. He said the U.S. should develop military plans, though he hoped they were never put into effect. “But the Iranians will understand that we have prepared credible military options, that they’ll know there is a consequence of becoming nuclear.” (ABC News)

Rick Santorum: “‘Yes, that’s the plan,’ said Santorum, when asked if he would order air strikes on Iran if they were going to obtain nuclear weapons. The conservative dark horse … is the most bellicose of the GOP contenders when it comes to Iran. In an interview with Glenn Beck, he said Iran’s regime was worse than al Qaeda, and that an attack on Iran would prevent war.” (ABC News).

As noted, President Theodore Roosevelt once said “Speak softly but carry a big stick.” Huntsman and Obama are speaking softly. Paul is whining. Gingrich, Romney and Santorum are waving their sticks. Santorum went as far as to say “an attack would prevent war.” That is “War prevents war.”

Iran, like Syria, is unstable. The people want food and a healthier economy. They also want change. Gingrich, Romney, and Santorum are saying what the Ayatollahs and Ahmadinejad want to hear. Their bellicose statements unify the people behind the Ayatollahs and Ahmadinejad. But rescuing fishermen – this is the last thing the Ayatollahs and Ahmadinejad want us to do. It shows that they cannot protect Iranians against Somali pirates. It unifies the people of Iran against the government of Iran. And it unifies the people of Iran behind the United States.

It also begs the question – “Why is piracy so common in Somalia?”

Shakespeare, Sorkin, and The American Presidency

“If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, smells like a duck, and quacks … it’s a duck” – anonymous

“What’s in a name? A Rose by any other name would smell as sweet” – Shakespeare, “Romeo and Juliet.”

“Being President of this country is entirely about character.” – Aaron Sorkin “The American President” /screenplay / YouTube.

Santorum, Gingrich & Lobbying

Brooklyn Bridge, courtesy Destination360

Since he lost his reelection campaign in 2006, the Honorable former Senator, Rick Santorum, has been consulting, primarily to companies which benefited from legislation he pushed as a Senator. He earned over $1.0 Million in 2010. Like the Honorable Mr. Gingrich, we know Mr. Santorum is not a “Lobbyist” because he has not REGISTERED as a “Lobbyist.” (NY Times article by Mike McIntire and Michael Luo here and Op-Ed by Maureen Dowd here.)

However, as reported (here) by ABC News, the non-profit “Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington” (CREW) filed a complaint with the U.S. attorney in D.C. and the FBI in which it claims Gingrich repeatedly met with or called members of Congress to pressure them to pass a contentious 2003 Medicare reform bill — legislation from which members of a Gingrich-founded group may have directly profited and Gingrich himself may have indirectly benefitted. (Press Release, here).

These men may try to sell us the Brooklyn Bridge. Or they may try to lease it to someone else, who will in turn erect toll booths and charge us to drive, bike, or walk across.

Continue reading →

For the 25th Anniversary of the Bruntdland Commission Report on Our Common Future

Image courtesy of NASA. Our tax dollars at work.

Let us remember the Blue Marble. There would be no food – and no life – without sunlight and clean water.

The whales, and the dolphins, the deer and the polar bear, are our cousins.

Let us return to the UN on March 20, May 9, June 20, September 3, and December 21 with delegations of thinkers and builders of sustainability and demand, respectfully, that we as members of communities of Earth, whether economically “Developed,” such as the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, France, or Canada; or “Developing,” such as Brazil, China, India, and Mexico; whether materally rich or materially poor, set as our overriding goal “Sustainable Development.”

This, “Sustainable Development,” as defined by Gro Harlem Brundtland as “development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the abilities of future generations to meet their needs,” or as defined by John Ehrenfeld as “development that leads to flourishing forever,” is simply and precisely development around harnessing natural processes such as wind, sunlight, ocean currents, the heat of the earth’s core, rather than extracting and consuming natural resources such as coal, oil, subterranean methane, and uranium, and creating toxic wastes.

Let us embrace not only the negative goals of lowering greenhouse gas emissions, and reducing distribution of toxic substances such as the arsenic, lead, mercury, uranium, zinc, etc. emitted from burning coal but also the positive goal of rearchitecting our economies – our interconnected global economy – around sustainable development.

Not more stuff distributed inequitably, but GOOD stuff, equitably distributed. After all, do we need a new cellphone every two years? Or a new car every three or four? How many shoes, trousers, shirts, coats, cameras, televisions, etc. does a person need?

Let us do this as a protest outside the UN, along the lines of Occupy Wall Street and other demonstrations – with substantive statements, drums, guitars, flair, and enthusiasm, and cover it ourselves on YouTube, Twitter, the blogosphere, and Ted Talks, but let us also demand that our Representatives in state houses, governor’s offices, the House, the Senate, and the White House and city halls and state capitals across the world listen and bring our message to the UN for a day, an hour, or even just 15 minutes.

We want to celebrate a turning point in human history. Let us do this on March 20, the anniversary of the Brundtland Commission Report. And, as May 8 and September 2 respectively mark the 67th anniversaries of the Allied victory over the Nazis and Imperial Japan in World War II, somber turning points in human history, and let us return to the United Nations, and to our city halls, state capitals, congresses and parliments on on May 9 and September 3, and on the solstices June 20 and December 21.

And let us do this with hope for peace, love, and the future.

LED Lamps – The Paradigm is Shifting

I just bought some LED bulbs at Home Depot. The bulbs, from Cree and Lighting Sciences, are sold under the “ecosmart” ™ brand. The Lighting Sciences bulbs will go into my bathroom. The CREE bulbs will go into the bedrooms, family room, and the kitchen. Over their 35,000 lifespan, each LED bulb will outlast 14 or 15 incandescents, or 4 or 5 compact flourescents and will use 16% of the power of the incandescent bulbs or 75% of the power of the compact flourescents. At $0.14 per kwh, the LEDs will consume $51.45 worth of power over their lifetimes, compared to $68.60 for the CFL’s and $318.50 for the incandescents. This is summarized in Table 1, below.

Comparison of LED, Incandescent Filiment, and CFL Light Bulbs
Description	Filiment	CFL	LED
Wattage	65	14	10.5
Bulb lifespan (hours)	875	8,000	35,000
Electricity (kwh) per 35,000 hours	2762.5	595	446.25
Electricity cost at $0.14 / kwh	$318.50	$68.60	$51.45
Table 1

These are “Dimmable.” They are also expensive – the 65watt equivalent, rated for 35,000 hours, costs $24.97; the 40watt-equivalent, rated for 50,000 hours, costs $9.97. Lowes and CostCo have similar units. The units from Lowes are currently more expensive. The prices are offset by the electricity savings and durability of the bulbs. These bulbs should last 15 to 20 years. If they are on 4 hours per day. If electricity prices don’t change, the LEDs will cost 3/4 the cost of a CFL and 1/6 the cost of an incandescent. In addition, since they use much less electricity, they will throw off much less heat. Thus, I will also save on air conditioning bills. Since 1 LED bulb will last as long as 4 CFL’s or 15 incandescents, I will also spend much less time changing bulbs – once installed, I expect to change the bulbs, every 15 to 20 years.

Like old fashioned incandescents, invented by Thomas Edison in the 1800’s, and unlike compact flourescents, or CFL’s, LED bulbs use no mercury or lead. They are easy to dispose of; if they break they do not create a toxic waste issue.

They offer three very clear advantages: They use much less power, they last much longer, they release no toxic wastes when they break.

The 65-watt equivalent bulbs, from CREE, produce 575 lumens of light on 10.5 watts of power. They have a 3-year warranty, but as noted, are rated for 35,000 hours of use. They also feature an integrated housing to fit inside a 6″ can or “high hat.” These are dimmable. If on for an hour, each will consume 10.5 watt-hours, 0.0105 kwh.

The 40-watt equivalent bulbs, from Lighting Sciences, produce 429 lumens of light with 9 watts. Thus, if on for an hour, each will consume 9 watt-hours, or 0.009 kilowatt hours, as opposed to 0.04 kwh. The three used in my bathroom will consume 0.027 kwh, per hour as opposed to 0.12 kwh per hour from the bulbs they are replacing. These are for indoor use only, and should last 50,000 hours. I am concerned about heat dissipation in the fixture, and will probably replace the glass housings.

This picture shows LED and CFL bulbs in the bathroom at turn-on. Note that there is no “warm-up” time for the LED bulb.

Cree, a $2.5 billion company, trades under the symbol CREE. Its price, at the close of trading, on 12/23/11, was $21.66 per share. It’s 52-week range is $20.25 to $69.21. Cree has an EPS, or earnings per share of $0.92. a P/ E, or price / earnings ratio of 23.60, a debt to asset ratio of 0.00, and net operating margins of 17.08. Cree has 4,753 employees. Institutions own 78% of the company.

Lighting Sciences, a $284 million company, trades under the symbol LSCG. Its price, at the close of trading on 12/23/11, was $1.39 per share. The debt to asset ratio is 8.52. It’s 52-week range is $1.32 to $5.39. The operating margins are negative -122.84, and the EPS is negative: -$2.59. Lighting Sciences has 152 employees. Institutions do not own this company.

This is probably a good time to invest in CREE. It might be a great time to speculate in Lighting Sciences.

The paradigm is shifting. Or, as Dylan once said, “The times, they are a-changin’.”

The World Will Not End & Other Predictions for 2012

Here are my top 10 predictions for 2012. These are less readings of the tea leaves or the entrails of goats and chickens and more simple extrapolations of patterns in progress. Altho that may be the way effective oracles. They just masked their observations with hocus pocus, mumbo-jumbo, and guts.

This list runs a gamut from business and technology to energy, instability in the Middle East, micro-economics in the United States, politics, and not-yet-pop culture.

Apple and IBM will continue to thrive. Microsoft will grow, slightly. Dell and HP will thrash. A share of Apple, which sold for $11 in December, 2001, and $380 in Dec. 2011, will sell for $480 in Dec. 2012.
The Price of oil will be at $150 to $170 per barrel in Dec., 2012. The price of gasoline will hit $6.00 per gallon in NYC and California.
There will be another two or three tragic accidents in China. 20,000 people will die.
There will be a disaster at a nuclear power plant in India, Pakistan, Russia, China, or North Korea.
Wal-Mart will stop growing. Credit Unions, insurance co-ops and Food co-ops, however, will grow 10% to 25%.
The amount of wind and solar energy deployed in the United States will continue to dramatically increase.
The government of Bashar Al Assad will fall.
Foreclosures will continue in the United States.
Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio will resign. Calls for Clarence Thomas to recuse himself from matters involving his wife’s clients will become louder, but Justice Thomas will ignore them. A prominent politician who says “Marriage is between a man and a woman,” or her husband, will be “outed” as gay. President Obama will be re-elected.
The authors of Vapor Trails will not win a Nobel Prize for literature. They will not win a “MacArthur Genius Award.” Nor will I despite my work on this blog or “Sunbathing in Siberia” and the XBColdFingers project.

Here are the details … Continue reading →

Moore's Law Applied to Solar Power

Does “Moore’s Law” hold for Solar Power?

In New Jersey, between 2001 and 2010, we went from a total of six systems with a combined capacity of 9.0 KW to about 7000 systems with a combined capacity of 211,000 KW or 211 MW. This is illustrated below.

Solar Capacity, NJ, 2001 to 2010. Increase from 9 KW in 6 systems to 211 MW, or 211,000 KW in 7000 systems

Increase from 9 KW in 6 systems to 211,000 KW in 7,000 systems. Copyright, 2010, L. J. Furman. All Rights Reseved.

This is the “hockey stick” curve of exponential growth typical of positive feedback mechanisms. I expect this kind of growth to continue for the next few years as prices drop, until solar meets 25% to 35% of New Jersey’s needs. This would be another 2500 to 3500 systems and about 200 additional MW in 2011 and 4000 to 5000 systems of 300 to 500 MW in 2012 , and brings me back to “Does ‘Moore’s Law,’ or a corollary, apply to PV Solar?” or “Is this a bubble?” Continue reading →

Jeremy Grantham at Marlboro College – on Investing for Sustainability

Jeremy Grantham, the founder of GMO LLC, a hedge fund with $93 Billion under management, will speak Friday, 12/2/2011, at 5:00 PM at the Marlboro College Grad School, 28 Vernon Street, Brattleboro, Vermont.

Grantham has written “Everything you need to know about global warming in 5 minutes,” which can be found at Think Progress and The Big Picture.”

He says “In the last 200 years we have increased the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by about 40%.”

(Ed. note: We have pumped about 1.0 trillion tons of Carbon Dioxide into the atmosphere. This has increased the atmosphere’s capacity to absorb heat and water.)

It is prudent and conservative to ask “What will happen next?”

Grantham continues:

What is the cost of lowering CO2 output and having the long-term effect of increasing CO2 turn out to be nominal? The cost appears to be equal to foregoing, once in your life, six months’ to one year’s global growth – 2% to 4% or less. The benefits, even with no warming, include: energy independence from the Middle East; more jobs, since wind and solar power and increased efficiency are more labor-intensive than another coal fired power plant; less pollution of streams and air; and an early leadership role for the U.S. in industries that will inevitably become important.

Conversely, what are the costs of not acting on prevention when the results turn out to be serious: costs that may dwarf those for prevention; and probable political destabilization from droughts, famine, mass migrations, and even war. And … what might be the cost at the very extreme end of the distribution: Definitely life changing, possibly life threatening.”

It would be interesting to hear Mr. Grantham’s views on Cape Wind, Solar Energy, Marine Hydro, the Obama – Buffett idea to tax wealthy people, and the Popular Logistics plan for 100% Clean, Renewable Energy (here). However, I suspect I know what he might say:

How would you pay for it?

Granted that if we factored the environmental costs of carbon dioxide, arsenic, lead, mercury, radioactive wastes, zinc, etc. coal, oil, methane, and nuclear would be much more expensive than they are believed to be today. But we don’t factor in those costs….

In New Jersey between 2001 and 2010, e went from a total of six systems with a combined capacity of 9.0 KW to about 7000 systems with a combined capacity of 211,000 KW or 211 MW, and I expect another 3000 systems and about 200 additional MW in 2011. This is exponential growth, leading to the following questions:

Does ‘Moore’s Law’ apply to Solar?

Is this a Bubble?

Or Is it a Paradigm – Shift?

GOP Debate On CNN, with Questions by American Enterprise Institute & Heritage Foundation

Tweet At the conclusion of the GOP debate, Wolf Blitzer thanked CNN‘s partners, the American Enterprise Institute and the Heritage Foundation. This partnership explains the framing of the debate on energy as “Burn Baby Burn” or “Drill Baby Drill.”

No questions were asked on the potential for renewable energy technologies, such as wind, solar, geothermal, hydro. Nor were questions asked on climate change or on the pollution and cleanup costs from coal, oil, gas, or nuclear.

Energy policy and climate are linked, and could be addressed in one question:

This summer people in Texas experienced an extended drought and 100 days in which the temperature was over 100 degrees (CBS). Is this normal? Is this the ‘new normal?’ If this is triggered by burning so much carbon based fuel in the last 200 years that we have elevated the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide from about 260 parts per million in 1800 to about 390 ppm today (350.org), and we have burned mountains of coal, lakes of oil and gas, is it prudent to continue to burn coal, oil, and gas, or should we embark on a plan to transition to non-fossil-carbon sources of energy, such as wind, solar, hydro, geothermal, etc? And if so, how quickly?

This could also be asked in a national security context:

Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, identified energy and climate change among the constraints which, in his words, “could place the United States at a strategic turning point…. Glaciers are melting at a faster rate, causing water supplies to diminish in Asia. Rising sea levels could lead to a mass migration and displacement similar to what we saw in Pakistan’s floods last year. And other shifts could reduce the arable land needed to feed a growing population in Africa, for example. Scarcity of water, food and space could create not only a humanitarian crisis but create conditions that could lead to failed states, instability and, potentially, radicalization.” (NRDC / WWF) What does this mean for the USA in the next 4 to 8 years and what should the President do about it?
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