Author Archives: L J Furman, MBA

About L J Furman, MBA

Analyst here and Director of Information Technology with an MBA in Managing for Sustainability.

For the 25th Anniversary of the Bruntdland Commission Report on Our Common Future

Image courtesy of NASA. Our tax dollars at work.

Let us remember the Blue Marble. There would be no food – and no life – without sunlight and clean water.

The whales, and the dolphins, the deer and the polar bear, are our cousins.

Let us return to the UN on March 20, May 9, June 20, September 3, and December 21 with delegations of thinkers and builders of sustainability and demand, respectfully, that we as members of communities of Earth, whether economically “Developed,” such as  the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, France, or Canada; or “Developing,” such as Brazil, China, India, and Mexico; whether materally rich or materially poor, set as our overriding goal “Sustainable Development.”

This, “Sustainable Development,” as defined by Gro Harlem Brundtland as “development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the abilities of future generations to meet their needs,” or as defined by John Ehrenfeld as “development that leads to flourishing forever,” is simply and precisely development around harnessing natural processes such as wind, sunlight, ocean currents, the heat of the earth’s core, rather than extracting and consuming natural resources such as coal, oil, subterranean methane, and uranium, and creating toxic wastes.

Let us embrace not only the negative goals of lowering greenhouse gas emissions, and reducing distribution of toxic substances such as the arsenic, lead, mercury, uranium, zinc, etc. emitted from burning coal but also the positive goal of rearchitecting our economies – our interconnected global economy – around sustainable development.

Not more stuff distributed inequitably, but GOOD stuff, equitably distributed. After all, do we need a new cellphone every two years? Or a new car every three or four? How many shoes, trousers, shirts, coats, cameras, televisions, etc. does a person need?

Let us do this as a protest outside the UN, along the lines of Occupy Wall Street and other demonstrations – with substantive statements, drums, guitars, flair, and enthusiasm, and cover it ourselves on YouTube, Twitter, the blogosphere, and Ted Talks, but let us also demand that our Representatives in state houses, governor’s offices, the House, the Senate, and the White House and city halls and state capitals across the world listen and bring our message to the UN for a day, an hour, or even just 15 minutes.

We want to celebrate a turning point in human history. Let us do this on March 20, the anniversary of the Brundtland Commission Report. And, as May 8 and  September 2 respectively mark the 67th anniversaries of the Allied victory over the Nazis and Imperial Japan in World War II, somber turning points in human history, and let us return to the United Nations, and to our city halls, state capitals, congresses and parliments on on May 9 and September 3, and on the solstices June 20 and December 21.

And let us do this with hope for peace, love, and the future.

LED Lamps – The Paradigm is Shifting

40 and 65 watt equivalents from CREE and Lighting SciencesI just bought some LED bulbs at Home Depot. The bulbs, from Cree and Lighting Sciences, are sold under the “ecosmart” ™ brand. The Lighting Sciences bulbs will go into my bathroom.  The CREE bulbs will go into the bedrooms, family room, and the kitchen. Over their 35,000 lifespan, each LED bulb will outlast 14 or 15 incandescents, or 4 or 5 compact flourescents and will use 16% of the power of the incandescent bulbs or 75% of the power of the compact flourescents. At $0.14 per kwh, the LEDs will consume $51.45 worth of power over their lifetimes, compared to $68.60 for the CFL’s and $318.50 for the incandescents. This is summarized in Table 1, below.

Comparison of LED, Incandescent Filiment, and CFL Light Bulbs
Description   Filiment         CFL         LED
Wattage 65 14 10.5
Bulb lifespan (hours) 875 8,000 35,000
Electricity (kwh) per 35,000 hours 2762.5 595 446.25
Electricity cost at $0.14 / kwh $318.50 $68.60 $51.45
Table 1

 

CREE LED High Hat, offCREE LED High Hat, onThese are “Dimmable.” They are also expensive – the 65watt equivalent, rated for 35,000 hours, costs $24.97; the 40watt-equivalent, rated for 50,000 hours, costs $9.97. Lowes and CostCo have similar units. The units from Lowes are currently more expensive. The prices are offset by the electricity savings and durability of the bulbs. These bulbs should last 15 to 20 years. If they are on 4 hours per day. If electricity prices don’t change, the LEDs will cost 3/4 the cost of a CFL and 1/6 the cost of an incandescent. In addition, since they use much less electricity, they will throw off much less heat. Thus, I will also save on air conditioning bills. Since 1 LED bulb will last as long as 4 CFL’s or 15 incandescents, I will also spend much less time changing bulbs – once installed, I expect to change the bulbs, every 15 to 20 years.

Like old fashioned incandescents, invented by Thomas Edison in the 1800’s, and unlike compact flourescents, or CFL’s, LED bulbs use no mercury or lead. They are easy to dispose of; if they break they do not create a toxic waste issue.

They offer three very clear advantages: They use much less power, they last much longer, they release no toxic wastes when they break.

The 65-watt equivalent bulbs, from CREE, produce 575 lumens of light on 10.5 watts of power.  They have a 3-year warranty, but as noted, are rated for 35,000 hours of use. They also feature an integrated housing to fit inside a 6″ can or “high hat.” These are dimmable. If on for an hour, each will consume 10.5 watt-hours, 0.0105 kwh.

LEDs from Lighting SciencesThe 40-watt equivalent bulbs, from Lighting Sciences, produce 429 lumens of light with 9 watts. Thus, if on for an hour, each will consume 9 watt-hours, or 0.009 kilowatt hours, as opposed to 0.04 kwh. The three used in my bathroom will consume 0.027 kwh, per hour as opposed to 0.12 kwh per hour from the bulbs they are replacing. These are for indoor use only, and should last 50,000 hours. I am concerned about heat dissipation in the fixture, and will probably replace the glass housings.

LED & CFL at turn-on This picture shows LED and CFL bulbs in the bathroom at turn-on. Note that there is no “warm-up” time for the LED bulb.

Cree, a $2.5 billion company, trades under the symbol CREE. Its price, at the close of trading, on 12/23/11, was $21.66 per share.  It’s 52-week range is $20.25 to $69.21. Cree has an EPS, or earnings per share of $0.92. a P/ E, or price / earnings ratio of 23.60, a debt to asset ratio of 0.00, and net operating margins of 17.08. Cree has 4,753 employees. Institutions own 78% of the company.

Lighting Sciences, a $284 million company, trades under the symbol LSCG. Its price, at the close of trading on 12/23/11, was $1.39 per share. The debt to asset ratio is 8.52. It’s 52-week range is $1.32 to $5.39. The operating margins are negative -122.84, and the EPS is negative: -$2.59. Lighting Sciences has 152 employees. Institutions do not own this company.

This is probably a good time to invest in CREE.  It might be a great time to speculate in Lighting Sciences.

The paradigm is shifting. Or, as Dylan once said, “The times, they are a-changin’.”

The World Will Not End & Other Predictions for 2012

space-apple-logo

 

Here are my top 10 predictions for 2012. These are less readings of the tea leaves or the entrails of goats and chickens and more simple extrapolations of patterns in progress. Altho that may be the way effective oracles. They just masked their observations with hocus pocus, mumbo-jumbo, and guts.

This list runs a gamut from business and technology to energy, instability in the Middle East, micro-economics in the United States, politics, and not-yet-pop culture.

  1.  Apple and IBM will continue to thrive. Microsoft will grow, slightly. Dell and HP will thrash. A share of Apple, which sold for $11 in December, 2001, and $380 in Dec. 2011, will sell for $480 in Dec. 2012.
  2. The Price of oil will be at $150 to $170 per barrel in Dec., 2012. The price of gasoline will hit $6.00 per gallon in NYC and California.
  3. There will be another two or three tragic accidents in China. 20,000 people will die.
  4. There will be a disaster at a nuclear power plant in India, Pakistan, Russia, China, or North Korea.
  5. Wal-Mart will stop growing. Credit Unions, insurance co-ops and Food co-ops, however, will grow 10% to 25%.
  6. The amount of wind and solar energy deployed in the United States will continue to dramatically increase.
  7. The government of Bashar Al Assad will fall.
  8. Foreclosures will continue in the United States.
  9. Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio will resign. Calls for Clarence Thomas to recuse himself from matters involving his wife’s clients will become louder, but Justice Thomas will ignore them. A prominent politician who says “Marriage is between a man and a woman,” or her husband, will be “outed” as gay. President Obama will be re-elected.
  10. The authors of Vapor Trails will not win a Nobel Prize for literature. They will not win a “MacArthur Genius Award.” Nor will I despite my work on this blog or “Sunbathing in Siberia” and the XBColdFingers project.

Here are the details … Continue reading →

Moore's Law Applied to Solar Power

Gordon MooreDoes “Moore’s Law” hold for Solar Power?

In New Jersey, between 2001 and 2010, we went from a total of six systems with a combined capacity of 9.0 KW to about 7000 systems with a combined capacity of 211,000 KW or 211 MW. This is illustrated below.

Solar Capacity, NJ, 2001 to 2010. Increase from 9 KW in 6 systems to 211 MW, or 211,000 KW in 7000 systems

Increase from 9 KW in 6 systems to 211,000 KW in 7,000 systems. Copyright, 2010, L. J. Furman. All Rights Reseved.

This is the “hockey stick” curve of exponential growth typical of positive feedback mechanisms. I expect this kind of growth to continue for the next few years as prices drop, until solar meets 25% to 35% of New Jersey’s needs. This would be another 2500 to 3500 systems and about 200 additional MW in 2011 and 4000 to 5000 systems of 300 to 500 MW in 2012 , and brings me back to “Does ‘Moore’s Law,’ or a corollary, apply to PV Solar?” or “Is this a bubble?” Continue reading →

Jeremy Grantham at Marlboro College – on Investing for Sustainability

Jeremy GranthamJeremy Grantham, the founder of GMO LLC, a hedge fund with $93 Billion under management, will speak Friday, 12/2/2011, at 5:00 PM at the Marlboro College Grad School, 28 Vernon Street, Brattleboro, Vermont.

Grantham has written “Everything you need to know about global warming in 5 minutes,” which can be found at Think Progress and The Big Picture.”

He says “In the last 200 years we have increased the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by about 40%.”

(Ed. note: We have pumped about 1.0 trillion tons of Carbon Dioxide into the atmosphere. This has increased the atmosphere’s capacity to absorb heat and water.)

It is prudent and conservative to ask “What will happen next?”

Grantham continues:

What is the cost of lowering CO2 output and having the long-term effect of increasing CO2 turn out to be nominal?  The cost appears to be equal to foregoing, once in your life, six months’ to one year’s global growth – 2% to 4% or less.  The benefits, even with no warming, include: energy independence from the Middle East; more jobs, since wind and solar power and increased efficiency are more labor-intensive than another coal fired power plant; less pollution of streams and air; and an early leadership role for the U.S. in industries that will inevitably become important.

Conversely, what are the costs of not acting on prevention when the results turn out to be serious:  costs that may dwarf those for prevention; and probable political destabilization from droughts, famine, mass migrations, and even war.  And … what might be the cost at the very extreme end of the distribution: Definitely life changing, possibly life threatening.”

It would be interesting to hear Mr. Grantham’s views on Cape Wind, Solar Energy, Marine Hydro, the Obama – Buffett idea to tax wealthy people, and the Popular Logistics plan for 100% Clean, Renewable Energy (here). However, I suspect I know what he might say:

How would you pay for it?

Granted that if we factored the environmental costs of carbon dioxide, arsenic, lead, mercury, radioactive wastes, zinc, etc. coal, oil, methane, and nuclear would be much more expensive than they are believed to be today. But we don’t factor in those costs….

In New Jersey between 2001 and 2010, e went from a total of six systems with a combined capacity of 9.0 KW to about 7000 systems with a combined capacity of 211,000 KW or 211 MW, and I expect another 3000 systems and about 200 additional MW in 2011. This is exponential growth, leading to the following questions:

  • Does ‘Moore’s Law’ apply to Solar?
  • Is this a Bubble?
  • Or Is it a Paradigm – Shift?

GOP Debate On CNN, with Questions by American Enterprise Institute & Heritage Foundation

GOP Candidates, 2011, Courtesy CBS News

Follow LJF97 on Twitter Tweet At the conclusion of the GOP debate, Wolf Blitzer thanked CNN‘s partners, the American Enterprise Institute and the Heritage Foundation. This partnership explains the framing of the debate on energy as “Burn Baby Burn” or “Drill Baby Drill.”

No questions were asked on the potential for renewable energy technologies, such as wind, solar, geothermal, hydro. Nor were questions asked on climate change or on the pollution and cleanup costs from coal, oil, gas, or nuclear.

Energy policy and climate are linked, and could be addressed in one question:

This summer people in Texas experienced an extended drought and 100 days in which the temperature was over 100 degrees (CBS). Is this normal? Is this the ‘new normal?’ If this is triggered by burning so much carbon based fuel in the last 200 years that we have elevated the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide from about 260 parts per million in 1800 to about 390 ppm today (350.org), and we have burned mountains of coal, lakes of oil and gas, is it prudent to continue to burn coal, oil, and gas, or should we embark on a plan to transition to non-fossil-carbon sources of energy, such as wind, solar, hydro, geothermal, etc? And if so, how quickly?

This could also be asked in a national security context:

Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, identified energy and climate change among the constraints which, in his words, “could place the United States at a strategic turning point…. Glaciers are melting at a faster rate, causing water supplies to diminish in Asia. Rising sea levels could lead to a mass migration and displacement similar to what we saw in Pakistan’s floods last year.  And other shifts could reduce the arable land needed to feed a growing population in Africa, for example. Scarcity of water, food and space could create not only a humanitarian crisis but create conditions that could lead to failed states, instability and, potentially, radicalization.” (NRDC / WWF) What does this mean for the USA in the next 4 to 8 years and what should the President do about it?
Continue reading →

NYPD Shield Assessment for Occupy Wall St, Nov 17

NYPD SHIELD Countering Terrorism through Information Sharing| |Follow LJF97 on Twitter Tweet |NYPD Shield, NYPD Counterterrorism Bureau, Terrorism Threat Analysis Group, “Countering Terrorism Through Information Sharing” sent me an email:

RE: NYPD SHIELD – Plans for All-Day “Mass Non-Violent Direct Action” On November 17th, 2011

Demonstrations are scheduled to take place in multiple locations throughout the five boroughs of New York City on Thursday, November 17th, 2011.  To view a copy of our assessment containing information regarding these demonstrations, please log into our website at secure.nypdshield.org and click on the Plans for All-Day “Mass Non-Violent Direct Action” On November 17th, 2011 PDF file under “Features.”

Regards,

NYPD SHIELD

I logged in. Downloaded the PDF. Here’s the text of the assessment:

Plans for All-Day “Mass Non-Violent Direct Action” on November 17th

Executive Summary

Demonstrations are scheduled to take place in multiple locations throughout the five boroughs of New York City on Thursday, November 17th.

Stated locations for mass demonstrations include the New York Stock Exchange and Foley Square.

Goals of the demonstrations include occupying subway trains, bridges in New York City, and Foley Square.

Advertisements for the demonstrations are being disseminated on various websites, online forums, social media groups, and blogs associated with the hacking group Anonymous, and the event has already received coverage in mainstream media sources.

Background

Recently, posts appeared on websites associated with groups engaged in protests in New York City and other cities announcing all-day citywide public demonstrations opn Thursday, November 17th. The demonstrations, labeled the day of Mass Non-Violent Direct Action!, are being heavily publicized and have three goals: 1) Shut Down Wall Street; 2) Occupy the Subways; and 3) Take The Square (referring to Foley Square). Organizers of the planned demonstration hope that many thousands of people will participate.  Although the planned demonstrations call for non-violent direct action, in recent weeks protests in other cities in the United States and Europe have led to riots, clashes with law enforcement, physical assaults, and property damage.

Schedule of Public Actions on November 17th

  • Shut Down Wall Street
    • Time: 7:00 AM
    • Location: New York Stock Exchange, Lower Manhattan
    • Description: This demonstration is planned to begin at Zuccotti Park and lead to a mass-gathering in front of the New York Stock Exchange prior to the opening bell of the market.
  • Occupy the Subways
    • Time: 3:00 PM
    • Description: This demonstration is planned to involve multiple groups protesting on subway platforms and trains.
  • Take The Square
    • Time: 5:00 PM
    • Location: Foley Square, Lower Manhattan
    • Description: This demonstration is planned to follow Occupy the Subways and to involve large groups gathering and then marching to “the bridges.”

I agree with the many of the Occupiers, and with members of the Tea Party, that there are profound systemic challenges facing the United States, and humanity; however, the goals noted above, along with Tea Party solutions as enunciated by Michele Bachmann, Sarah Palin, Rick Perry, Paul Ryan, etc., are patently absurd.  While the Tea Party can shut down the Federal Government – many are members of Congress – the Occupiers cannot “Shut Down Wall Street.” They are unarmed. They wear t-shirts, sweat-shirts, and jeans. The NYPD officers surrounding Zuccotti Park are heavily armed and wear riot gear. Similarly, based on my personal observations and my reading news accounts, primarily in the NY Times and the San Francisco Chronicle, it seems that most of the physical assaults and much of the property damage described in the analysis portion of NYPD Shield’s “Threat Assessment” was committed by members of the police and directed against the protesters; including, for example, clearing Zuccotti Park and destroying the property of the occupiers, beginning 1:30 AM local time, Tuesday, November 15. (Note comment 19, to the NY Times Editorial “The Mayor Confronts the Occupiers“. The Mayor DIDN’T confront the occupiers. The Mayor sent in the police who arrested many and destroyed whatever property was left.)

Having said that, I must note that the writers and editors of Popular Logistics are not associated with the hacking group “Anonymous.”  And I also would like to respectfully point out that NYPD Shield is, ironically, one of the “online forums, social media groups, and blogs” that is disseminating information – essentially advertising – the demonstrations. (Obviously, Popular Logistics is another.)

NYPD_Shield.Assessment.Mass_Nonviolent_Direct_Action_11_17_2011

Occupy Wall Street – Stay Awake – Save The Baby

Occupy Wall Street, OWS

| |Follow LJF97 on Twitter Tweet |  In ending the camp-out phase of Occupy Wall Street, Mayor Brookfield and Judge Stallman did the Occupy movement a favor.  The Occupiers can claim victory. Now they can focus on delivering the message –
  • Economic Democracy – We must build sustainable economic systems which recognize that Earth is a stakeholder, that economic activity must be in harmony with earth / the biosphere.
  • We May Occupy Wall Street – But No Sleeping and Banksters need Watchin’ – You can’t shut your eyes when the “Banksters” are in town – there must be strong regulations such as those both presidents Roosevelt put in place to regulate the railroads (Theodore) and the financial industry (Franklin).
  • Dismantle the Revolving Doors between Wall Street and Washington (And City Hall)!

And do so without worrying about the logistics problems of food, water, shelter, sanitation, medical care, all of which are important – they are, after all, why they are there.

Mayor Brookfield threw out the bath. Let’s save the baby!

See also –

Worldly Philosophers for Hire

| |Follow LJF97 on Twitter Tweet | In “Wanted: Worldly Philosophers,” Roger Backhouse and Bradley Bateman say:|”IT’S become commonplace to criticize the “Occupy” movement for failing to offer an alternative vision. But the thousands of activists in the streets of New York and London aren’t the only ones lacking perspective: economists, to whom we might expect to turn for such vision, have long since given up thinking in terms of economic systems — and we are all the worse for it. ”

 As these pictures, from here, and here, show, the “Occupy” movement supports labor rights and environmental protection. The “Occupiers” do not, therefore, lack perspective.

Image shows union support at Occupy Wall St.They – we – see my work here at Popular Logistics, here at XBColdFingers, or meet me at Zuccotti – lack influence.

Paul Krugman and Joe Stiglitz are the most famous economists whom Backhouse and Bateman might describe as “Worldly Philosophers with perspective.” Tom Friedman may not have have studied economics; but he too fits the bill of “Worldly Philosopher with Perspective.” There are others.

Sadly, Obama, Biden, Sommers, Geithner, and Chu, like Bush, Cheney, Rice, Rove and Rumsfeld, like Bachmann, Cain, Gingrich, Huntsman, Paul, Perry, Romney, and Santorum, don’t know the answers – and what is worse, they don’t even seem to know which questions to ask.

As noted above, “the ‘Occupiers’ do not lack perspective.  They – we – lack influence.” To correct that I would like to personally extend an invitation to President Obama, Vice President Biden, any members of the cabinet, or the White House or campaign staff and any of the current candidates for the Republican nomination to meet me at Zuccotti Park, or at the time and place of their choosing, for a discussion on the issues.

Connecticut Power – Failure

Snow on tree on car  Follow LJF97 on Twitter Tweet The few inches of heavy wet snow that fell in October took out power in parts of New Jersey and Connecticut. Millions lost power in the storm. Nine days later 50,000 remain without power in Connecticut. Hundreds are without power New Jersey and Massachusetts. Connecticut Outage map here.  News coverage here: Business Week / NPR / NY Times.

People in New Jersey have installed over 400 MW of nameplate capacity solar. While this is a fraction of the 7.0 GW, or 7,000 MW, of generating capacity needed by the 8 million or so people who reside in New Jersey, and these systems don’t feed the grid when the power is out, let’s do a thought experiment.

Ground mounted solar array in snowLet’s imagine each of the 50,000 in Connecticut who remains without power had a PV solar array. They’d have power during the day. Lets also imagine that microhydro turbines along the Connecticut River, in other rivers, off the shores, and a set of utility scale wind turbines. The result? Power, day and night, without pollution.  Power without the need to mine coal, drill for oil, fracture the ground for methane, or generate tons of radioactive waste.

Lets further postulate 50 MW on each of the public schools, and 1.5 to 5.0 MW on each of the colleges and universities in the state.

In the event of a major outage from a storm like the October Surprise of 2011, or Irene, the schools could be used as emergency shelters with power, during the day when the sun is shining – as it has been since the storm.

And these systems generate power in predictable amounts, with no fuel and no pollution.

An emergency backup power system is only used during an emergency. Solar energy systems are used every day – and so are a more efficient use of capital.

And as the picture above suggests – there’s an interesting feedback pattern when snow falls on a solar array. Solar arrays are pitched to face the sun. Snow is translucent – allows light to pass thru.  The snow covered solar array generates power, which generates heat, which melts the snow, exposing the array to more sunlight – which generates more power.

Can Anyone Really Create Jobs? Yes We Can!

FDR Follow LJF97 on Twitter Tweet Writing in the NY Times, Adam Davidson of Planet Money, asks “Can Politicians Really Create Jobs? Davidson says “No.”

But with all due respect to Mr. Davidson, as Barack – The Candidate – Obama said, “Yes, We Can!”

And yes, Presidential candidates can create jobs – presidential campaigns are staffed by people. So obviously, the President can create jobs. Anyone can. All it takes is a need for something to get done. Whether you do it yourself or you pay someone else to do it, it’s a job. So the real question for the President, the Presidential Candidates, our elected Representatives in Washington and in State and Local Government, and for us ourselves, is not “Can we create jobs?” The real question is “How do we create 10 or 15 million good new jobs?”

Davidson talks about Keynes and the Chicagoans.

Chicagoans believe that economies can only truly recover on their own and that policy interventions only slow the recovery. It’s a puzzle of modern politics that Republicans have had electoral success with a policy that fundamentally asserts there is nothing the government can do to create jobs any time soon…. Romney, Perry, Herman Cain and the rest won’t come out and say, “If elected, I will tell you to wait this thing out.”

This is what Herbert Hoover said and why Franklin Delano Roosevelt won the election in 1932.

Instead, Republican candidates fill their jobs plans with Chicagoan ideas that have nothing to do with the current crisis, like permanent cuts in taxes and regulation. These policies may (or may not) make the economy healthier in 5 years or 10, but the immediate impact would require firing a large number of America’s roughly 23 million government workers.

What John Maynard Keynes said is less that “government can create jobs” but is more along the lines of

“in economic times such as these, when there is high unemployment because business will not hire people to create inventory that is likely to remain unsold, government is the only entity that has both the means and the will to create jobs.”

Less “government can” and more “Government Must!”

What is our government, after all? Lincoln said it best:

– “Government of the people, by the people and for the people.”

And there is much work to be done. We need to rebuild our infrastructure. This includes our crumbling current infrastructure of schools, roads, mass transit, etc. This will create jobs. We also know that domestic energy production peaked in 1971. International oil production seems to be peaking now, altho given the state of the world economy, and the state of infrastructure in Iran, Iraq, and Libya, the international peak may be a few years off. However, we should build a sustainable energy infrastructure. We will need it eventually. It is good for the environment, it will strengthen our economy and our state of national security. But rather than by using a simple program to provide loan guarantees to various corporations; the government should mandate that all government buildings should be well insulated, efficient, heated and cooled with geothermal, and powered with a mix of solar, wind, local hydro, biofuel (from waste, sewage, manure, etc., not food crops).

Just as police and courts exist to protect people from those who would point a gun at their heads and say “Your money or your life,” enforcement agencies must protect people from those who would discard toxic substances into the air we breathe, the water we drink, the food we eat, and the ground from which we farm.  We need to regulate banks and other financial firms. This too will create jobs. We need to provide health care to all our citizens, not just 5 out of 6, or 265 million out of 307 million, leaving 1 out of 6, or 45 out of 307 million without access to health care.

Davidson is wrong about one other thing. It’s not either go into debt to create jobs or fire people to cut taxes. Government has two sources of revenue: debt and taxes. It seems fair to me that a progressive tax policy, can be used to generate the revenues needed to pay for the jobs society needs to be done.  Wealth, after all, is not created in a vacuum. Wealth is created by people buying things that other people are selling. People want to buy Apple computers, music players, cell phones.  The people who design and build them get wealthy. The wealthy benefit by living in society; therefore demanding that all, including the wealthy, pay a fair share, as illustrated here, in my post on Progressive Tax Policy is fair, balanced, reasonable, and smart.

  • Over $100 Million, 57.5%. Plus 5.0% Social Security Insurance & Medicare.
  • Between $10 Million and $100 Million: 52.5%. Plus 5.0% SSI & M.
  • Between $5 Million and $10 Million: 42.5%. Plus 5.0% SSI & M.
  • Between $1 Million and $5 Million: 32.5%. Plus 5.0% SSI & M.
  • Between $100,000 and $1 Million: 22.5%. Plus 5.0% SSI & M.
  • Below $100,000: 17.5%. Plus 4.0% SSI & M.
  • Royalty income should be taxed at the same rates as wages and salary.
  • Income in the form of unsold stock options is tax-deferred and taxed when sold.
  • Inheritances of $1.0 million and under from a grandparent, parent, partner, or child should not be taxed. Inheritances from distant relatives, or that portion above $1.0 million should be taxed as indicated above.

So can anyone create jobs? The answer is a resounding ‘Yes, We Can!’

It's The Feedback – It's Always The Feedback

NYPD Interacts WithProtester  Follow LJF97 on Twitter Tweet On Nov 2, 2011, Senator Tom Udall of New Mexico introduced a Constitutional Amendment that would overturn the Citizens United decision of the Supreme Court (Technorati / WSJ).

The managers of Bank of America, who accepted $45 billion in TARP money, and decided to pay back its customers with a $5 per month fee for the privilege of holding a debit card, recently recently decided to reverse course on the fee for debit cards ( CBS Miami /Oregon Live).

Meanwhile, back on the streets, the authorities appear to believe that a show of force and the use of force by the police will quell the demonstrations. Yet the opposite is the case. As the cops overreact – pepper spraying 4 women in NYC (NY Times / YouTube), running over a lawyer for the Occupiers (CBS / Daily Mail / Salon / Yahoo) people get angrier and join the Occupation – causing the police to either moderate or escalate their response.

The Plot to Sieze the White HouseAfter a US Marine Corps veteran of the Iraq war was injured in Oakland other veterans come to occupations all over the country. They came quoting Smedley Darlington Butler, the Marine Corps General who wrote “War is a Racket,” ISBN: 978-1434407009, and figured in the events described in “The Plot to Seize The White House,” by Jules Archer, ISBN: 978-1602390362.

These are examples of balancing feedback loops, as described by Dana Meadows in Thinking in Systems, A Primer, ISBN: 978-1603580557. (A researcher with Jay Forrester at MIT and Dartmouth, Meadows founded the Sustainability Institute.)

Continue reading →

Occupy Wall Street Is News Fit To Print

_Follow LJF97 on Twitter Tweet  Monday’s NY Times leads with a story on arrests of “Occupy Wall Street” protesters in Denver and Nashville.  I don’t understand how can we give corporations free speech, yet deny people the right to assembly. On the Op-Ed page, Friedman gets it right in Did You Hear The One About The Bankers, Douthat misses the point in “What Tax Dollars Can’t Buy, ” and on the editors provide some data that supports the protesters, here. Continue reading →

Progressive Tax Policy

“Taxes are the price we pay for civilization.” – Oliver Wendell Holmes.

Progressive tax structures are not about punishing the rich. They are a recognition that wealthy people derive benefits from being in society. Warren Buffett, Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, Michael Jordan, Oprah, for example, got rich because people buy their products or watched them play basketball or on TV.  Paris Hilton is wealthy because her great-grandfather built a successful business. Their successes are wonderful. But their success should not require me to subsidize their lifestyles.

This tax structure can be implemented by October 31, 2012, and effective January 1, 2013, if not by Congress, then by Executive Order.

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