Category Archives: Connecting the Dots

Forget the Great Wall – Meet The Great Haze

Beijing from space, courtesy NASA

Image 1. Beijing from space, Jan., 2013, courtesy NASA

忘了长城 – 我们现在有大的雾度

“Forget the Great Wall – We Now Have the Great Haze”

– Translation by Google

In the 1960’s and 1970’s astronauts showed that we could see the Great Wall of China from space. Today, it’s the Great Haze of China that we can see from space .  The New York Daily News, here, published this image, taken by NASA in January 12, 2013 (here) when the Air Quality Index, AQI, reached 775.

The AQI was established by the US EPA. AQI above 300 is considered dangerous. AQI at 775 is probably deadly.

Continue reading

What Next? – For the 21st Century

Barack-Obamajoe-biden

What should we do now?

  1. Strengthen the safety net.
  2. Reverse the Citizens United and Florence v Burlington rulings.
  3. Place reasonable restrictions on Second Amendment rights, as  reasonable restrictions exist on First Amendment rights. And tax properties and income of religious institutions.
  4. Address Climate Change.
  5. Develop a Renewable & Sustainable Energy Infrastructure – Clean & Green within 15.

As President Obama said, in his Second Inauguration, (White House . Gov / The Atlantic)

The commitments we make to each other …  do not sap our initiative; they strengthen us.  They do not make us a nation of takers; they free us to take the risks that make this country great.

“We will respond to the threat of climate change, knowing that the failure to do so would betray our children and future generations. 

“The path towards sustainable energy sources will be long and sometimes difficult.  But America cannot resist this transition, we must lead it.

Continue reading

Barbara Buono will Win, Apple will Grow, Assad will Die and other forecasts for 2013


LF_w_Barbara_Buono

In “The World Will Not End and Other Predictions for 2012,” I developed a set of predictions for 2012, the accuracy of which were described by me in 2012 Revisited. Here are my predictions for 2013. As noted last year, I am extrapolating from patterns that I see – also known as reading tea leaves.

  1. New Jersey’s Governor Chris Christie will lose his re-election campaign to NJ Senator Barbara Buono, pictured with me, above. The Tea Party Republicans will not compromise with President Obama, Democrats in the House and Senate, or the Republican Leadership in the House and Senate.  They will, again, threaten to shut-down the U. S. government.
  2. A major hurricane will batter the Gulf Coast or the Eastern Seaboard, causing $25 to $80 Billion worth of damage. FEMA will be there to help.
  3. Apple will continue to report record sales and record profits. It will close out the year with a market capitalization around $650 Billion, up from today’s level of $470 Billion. If HP‘s Board doesn’t fire CEO Meg Whitman, HP may return to profitability. Dell‘s market share and market capitalization will fall.
  4. The wind and solar industries will increase in the US and globally, particularly Japan, which is now planning to have 100% renewable energy by 2040, and India, which is learning from the mistakes being made in China, Japan, and the West.
  5. Large industrial conglomerates will continue to design and sell wind turbines, LED lighting, PV solar modules and more energy efficient medical devices, etc.
  6. Assad will fall – and will die – by the end of 2014.
  7. Mohammed Morsi and the Moslem Brotherhood will consolidate power in Egypt, but will not abandon the Egypt – Israel peace treaty.
  8. Iran will provide weapons and support to Islamists in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia.
  9. Israel, feeling threatened, and very concerned regarding Iran, Syria and Egypt, will ignore pressure to negotiate with the Palestinians.
  10. Roger Saillant and RP Siegel will not win any awards for their novel, Vapor Trails.

For an overview of the details see below.

Continue reading

Securing Our Schools, Part 2

 KIDS

(18 of the 20 children killed at Sandy Hook. Image courtesy of Island 106.)

In response to the killing of 20 children and four teachers, Dawn Hochsprung, the school’s beloved principal, and school psychologist Mary Sherlach at Sandy Hook Elementary School, the NRA’s Wayne LaPierre’s proposed stationing armed police, at taxpayer’s expense, in every school. We at Popular Logistics, think this wasn’t thought through – or is a “red herring” meant to distract people from the real problem – close to 300 million weapons in the hands of roughly 80 million people in the United States.  given the number of weapons in the USA, the number of people with weapons, the ease and lack of oversight with which people can obtain weapons, the editors of Popular Logistics, as discussed here, believe that we need to think seriously about securing our schools.

(Note that the NRA’s executive offices are at 11250 Waples Mill Rd, Fairfax, VA, 22030. The NRA can be reached via telephone to 703-267-1250, via Fax to 703-267-3985, and via e-mail at nracrdf@nrahq.org)

As with commercial aviation safety, we should start by securing, or hardening our schools. Our “back of the envelope” calculation suggests that we can do this for about $40,000 per school, and therefore $5.6 Billion for the 140,040 schools in the United States. That will be explored in Part 3 of this series. This post continues the discussion of development of a squad of officers/agents for each school, begun in Part 1.

Continue reading

An Armed Police Presence in Every School

Police officers, image courtesy of Bureau of Labor Statistics

Police Officers, Image courtesy of BLS.

 

Following the December 14, 2012 killing of 20 children, four teachers, the principal and psychologist in Sandy Hook Elementary School, and his mother by Adam Lanza in Newtown, Connecticut (CNN),  Wayne LaPierre (bio) of the National Rifle Association gave a “Press Conference” (in which the Press were not allowed to ask any questions). He suggested that the Federal Government hire police officers for every school in the USA (full transcript: Daily Caller, Washington Post).

Left unsaid is how many new police officers we would need, and what it would cost to hire, train, and equip them. Continue reading

2012 Revisited

Crystal Ball

In “The World Will Not End & Other Predictions for 2012, here, I wrote:

  1. Apple and IBM will continue to thrive. Microsoft will grow, slightly. Dell and HP will thrash. A share of Apple, which sold for $11 in December, 2001, and $380 in Dec. 2011, will sell for $480 in Dec. 2012.” (Mostly Correct, except Apple did better than I expected.)
  2. The Price of oil will be at $150 to $170 per barrel in Dec., 2012. The price of gasoline will hit $6.00 per gallon in NYC and California.” (Wrong)
  3. There will be another two or three tragic accidents in China. 20,000 people will die. (The number of accidents was underestimate. Their magnitude was overestimated – however … )
  4. There will be a disaster at a nuclear power plant in India, Pakistan, Russia, China, or North Korea. (Wrong)
  5. Wal-Mart will stop growing. Credit Unions, insurance co-ops and Food co-ops, however, will grow 10% to 25%. (Wrong on WalMart, right on Credit Unions, altho the numbers were off.)
  6. The amount of wind and solar energy deployed in the United States will continue to dramatically increase. (Right. Very Right!)
  7. The government of Bashar Al Assad will fall. (Wrong – but there’s still time.)
  8. Foreclosures will continue in the United States. (sadly, true, but not as bad as it could have been – thanks to Obama)
  9. Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio will resign. Calls for Clarence Thomas to recuse himself from matters involving his wife’s clients will become louder, but Justice Thomas will ignore them. A prominent politician who says “Marriage is between a man and a woman,” or her husband, will be “outed” as gay. President Obama will be re-elected.” (Right on Obama and the American voter. Wrong on Arpaio)
  10. The authors of Vapor Trails will not win a Nobel Prize for literature. They will not win a “MacArthur Genius Award.” Nor will I despite my work on this blog or “Sunbathing in Siberia” and the XBColdFingers project. (Right, tho I would have like to have been wrong on this one.)

Here are the details. Continue reading

Solar Power & Electric Utilities: Is The Paradigm Shifting?

Ground Mounted Array.

The 16-module solar array pictured above was built in 2005.  It probably has 2.5 Kilowatt (KW) to 2.8 KW of nameplate capacity. In New Jersey, residential solar systems range from 3 KW to 30 KW. Most are between 4 and 10 KW. Commercial systems range from 8KW to 200 KW. Utility scale systems are in the 10 Mega Watt (MW) to 550 MW range. In 2005, the costs for small scale residential systems were around $8.50 / watt, exclusive of any incentives. Today it is probably around half that, and cheaper for the larger utility scale systems. 1.0 MW system would require 4,000 modules of 250 watts each. The system pictured above requires about 50 square feet of land.As illustrated by the photo of the Topaz array, below, a 550 MW system, like Topaz, would require 2.2 million modules, and would cover a lot of ground.

First Solar Topaz

First Solar, FSLR, a $2.8 Billion company, and Sunpower, SPWR, an $840 Million company, two of the pillars of what is left of the American solar energy industry, made some interesting statements in their 2011 annual reports: Continue reading

Fort Calhoun Nuclear Plant, Update.

Fort Calhoun Nuclear Plant

Back in April, 2011, the Fort Calhoun nuclear power plant, on the banks of the Missouri River about 19 miles north of Omaha, was shut down for refueling. The timing was perfect because in June, 2011, the Missouri River flooded. As pictured above, the plant that had been on the shore of the river was suddenly in the middle of the river.

THE PLANT IS STILL SHUT-DOWN – 20 Months after the incident.

Erin Golden, of the Omaha World News, told me on Dec. 19, 2012,

The plant is expected to be $129 million over budget in 2012. The OPPD [Omaha Public Power District] has set a target for the First Quarter of 2013 to bring the plant back on line. And the people at OPPD are optimistic that they will get the plant back on-line. The NRC, however, is not optimistic.

Continue reading

One Airport’s Trash Is 2 Million Worms’ Treasure : The Salt : NPR

Food waste is not just a problem for restaurants — airports also have to deal with piles of this kind of garbage.

At one of the nation’s busiest airports, Charlotte Douglas International in North Carolina, each passenger generates half a pound of garbage on average per visit. But instead of just sending all that trash to the landfill, Charlotte has taken a different approach. It’s the first airport to put worms to work dealing with trash.

Yes, worms.

Before the worms get a whack at the airport waste, there’s some human work required. Twenty-five tons of trash a day tumbles onto a conveyor belt under the supervision of Charlotte Airport housekeeping manager Bob Lucas.

“You see it coming down off the cascade up there,” Lucas says. “What that does is, it gives it like a waterfall effect. So it spreads it out on the belt a little bit more.”

A dozen employees pluck out recyclables and sort through aluminum, plastic and more, so passengers don’t have to do the sorting in the terminal.

In the four months since this operation got under way, trash going from the Charlotte airport to the landfill is down an impressive 70 percent. Recyclables are crushed, baled and sold for cash. There are shirts sorted and laundered and donated, and plastic cups collected. (The shirts come from people who toss clothing when they suddenly discover their suitcases are too heavy.)

The organic stuff — waste from airport restaurants, food scraps off planes, and the half-eaten Cinnabon that a traveler has tossed out — mixes in a big tank for a few days to start the composting process. Then it’s time for the stars of this show to take over.

“There’s the workers,” Lucas says, digging his fingers into the top layer of a 50-foot-long composting bin, “1.9 million of them.”

They are common backyard red wigglers, about 3 inches long, a quarter-inch around — and hungry. Lucas says they eat half their weight a day.

Organic waste ends up in a series of 50-foot beds where the worms do their work. Castings (aka worm poop) fall through a screen at the bottom of the bed and will be used as fertilizer on airport grounds. Enlarge image

Organic waste ends up in a series of 50-foot beds where the worms do their work. Castings (aka worm poop) fall through a screen at the bottom of the bed and will be used as fertilizer on airport grounds.

Julie Rose

“I have not heard of another airport that does that,” says Katherine Preston, environmental affairs director for Airports Council International-North America.

And that’s with good reason. First of all, recycling and worm composting take space many airports don’t have.

Plus, worms are finicky and — as Lucas recently learned — prone to crawling out en masse at times. That resulted in a panicked call to the guy who sold him the worms.

“First thing I told him: ‘They’re trying to leave.’ And he said, ‘Get a light and stick it under the bed.’ And they just turn around and go back in and they’re happy,” Lucas says.

Light on. Crisis averted. If Lucas can keep the worms happy, they’ll soon be producing enough worm poop to fertilize all of the airport’s flower beds and shrubs, Lucas says.

Worm poop. Go ahead and giggle. Charlotte officials sure did as they debated the $1.2 million it cost to launch the program. But they’re not laughing now: The airport expects to be making money off its trash in five years.

via One Airport’s Trash Is 2 Million Worms’ Treasure : The Salt : NPR.

A View From The Ground: Thailand Confronts Drug-Resistant Malaria : Shots – Health News : NPR

Global efforts to combat malaria are under threat from new strains of drug-resistant malaria, which are cropping up in Southeast Asia.

Over the last decade, the number of malaria deaths around the world has dropped sharply, from just over 1 million in 2000 to roughly 600,000 last year.

Much of that progress is due to the widespread use of drugs containing artemisinin. The new malaria drugs quickly kill the parasite.

But in Southeast Asia doctors are starting to see cracks in artemisinin’s armor. The drugs are working more slowly, and sometimes they’re failing to wipe out the malaria parasite entirely.

This 5-year-old boy was carried to a Thai malaria clinic by his mother from deep inside Myanmar. If the mother had waited even a day longer, doctors say, the child probably would have died.

Shots – Health News

Stakes Rise In Malaria Battle As Cracks Appear In Drug’s Armor

A second promo image for the malaria animation post.

Shots – Health News

Herbs And Empires: A Brief, Animated History Of Malaria Drugs

The World Health Organization reported Monday that artemisinin resistance has now been detected in four countries: Cambodia, Myanmar (also known as Burma), Thailand and Vietnam.

Although the resistance is still limited to Southeast Asia, WHO officials worry that it could spill out of the region.

Two hot spots for artemisinin resistance are in Thailand’s thickly forested border regions. One is along Thailand’s eastern border with Cambodia, and the other is on the country’s western boundary with Myanmar.

If artemisinin-based treatments become ineffective in Africa — where malaria remains the leading killer of children under the age of 5 — it could be disastrous. Doctors say they have few other powerful drugs to use against the disease.

Global funding for the fight against malaria rose to $1.71 billion in 2010, or nearly twentyfold since 2000. But it has plateaued in the past few years, the WHO said. Many malaria interventions, like distribution of bed nets and insecticide spraying have also leveled off during this time, the report found.

via A View From The Ground: Thailand Confronts Drug-Resistant Malaria : Shots – Health News : NPR.

Memory Quizzes Still Best For Alzheimer’s Diagnosis : Shots – Health News : NPR

When it comes to predicting whether someone will have Alzheimer’s disease, newfangled diagnostic tests for the illness aren’t as good as old-fashioned quizzes of thinking and memory.

That’s the word from a study that compared different methods for identifying Alzheimer’s. The results was just published in the Archives of General Psychiatry.

Scientists have been looking for a scan or lab test, such as changes in particular proteins in the blood, to simplify and speed up the detection of Alzheimer’s. The goal is to be able to identify people at risk of the illness long before symptoms such as impaired thinking surface. But that goal is far from being realized.

In this study, researchers compared how well biological and cognitive tests did at identifying whether people who already had mild cognitive impairment would go on to develop Alzheimer’s. They found that two tests measuring verbal memory were the best at predicting whether someone would develop Alzheimer’s in the next two years.

In those tests, people were read a story or a list of words, and then asked to recall the information 30 minutes later. In people who are progressing to Alzheimer’s, "there’s forgetting," neuroscientist Terry Goldberg, a co-author of the study, told Shots. "There’s an increased rate of forgetting."

One biological marker, a brain scan that measured changes in the thickness of the middle temporal lobe, also predicted people who went on to have Alzheimer’s. Other biological markers, such as tests for telltale proteins in blood and cerebrospinal fluid, also revealed changes, but not as well. Those tests have been used in research laboratories, but aren’t being used to test for Alzheimer’s in clinical practice.

"It’s not that the biomarkers didn’t work," says Goldberg, a professor at Hofstra North Shore-LIJ School of Medicine in Manhasset, N.Y. "But when you compared them head to head, you find that the cognitive markers are the most robust."

That means that the thinking tests can also be used for guides in designing therapies. In fact, Goldberg says, they may ultimately be more useful that the biological tests. "What you want to change is how people do in everyday life," he says.

The trick is to diagnose mild cognitive impairment, a stage between normal forgetfulness and serious cognitive problems. It sometimes leads to Alzheimer’s, but can be caused by other diseases, too. People with MCI can be more forgetful, have trouble multitasking, and take longer to remember or decide. This study looked at 116 people with MCI who were diagnosed with Alzheimer’s disease in two years, 204 people with MCI who didn’t get Alzheimer’s and 197 healthy people as controls.

The study used information from the Alzheimer’s Disease NeuroImaging Initiative, which is looking for ways to identify risk factors for Alzheimer’s, and techniques for early diagnosis.

The goal would then be to create treatments that could profoundly slow or even halt the disease’s process. No such treatments exist now. Earlier this year, the National Institute on Aging redefined Alzheimer’s, broadening the definition and including the fact that biomarkers can be used for early detection. But since there is no treatment that slows or halts the disease, those biomarker tests don’t help patients or families manage the disease.

via Memory Quizzes Still Best For Alzheimer's Diagnosis : Shots – Health News : NPR.

Ready. Set. Memorize! : NPR

In the gymnasium of a South London technical school, site of this year’s World Memory Championships, Norwegian Ola Kaere Risa checks his stopwatch.

Risa is Norway’s only contestant this year.

"I hope to defend the glory of my country," he says, laughing.

The 21st World Memory Championships are under way in London this weekend. About 75 competitors from some two dozen countries are vying to see who can memorize the most numbers, faces, playing cards or random words in a set amount of time.

Related NPR Stories

A brain made from colored gears appears inside a gray human head.

Shots – Health Blog

Middle-Aged Brains Are Already Past Their Prime

PET scans of the brains of a person with normal memory ability and someone diagnosed with Alzheimer’s

Shots – Health Blog

Memory Quizzes Still Best For Alzheimer’s Diagnosis

Research shows that under certain circumstances, we can train ourselves to forget details about particular memories.

Shots – Health Blog

Can We Learn To Forget Our Memories?

Walking shoes

Fitness & Nutrition

Stand Up, Walk Around, Even Just For ’20 Minutes’

Dong Xun, 10, is a competitor from China. His best event? Abstract images.

"I want to remember 250 this time," he says.

Yudi Lesmana’s best trick? The competitor from Indonesia says he can memorize about 25 decks of cards an hour.

These mental athletes are boosting their brain power while most of us are outsourcing ours into the nearest memory chip.

Nelson Dellis, the U.S. memory champion, says that in practice, he can memorize a deck of cards in about 32 seconds.

Dellis is ranked 24th in the world. His grandmother’s death from Alzheimer’s disease prompted him to work on his own terrible memory, he says.

Now, he helps companies and individuals do the same.

"Because people realize that they’re not using their brains as much," says Dellis. "They notice that they don’t remember numbers or addresses because they’re always typing them into their smartphones, you know?"

At the opening ceremony of the championships, the chief statistician of the event — Phil Chambers — receives a wild round of applause, perhaps one of the few places on the planet where this happens.

"You are warriors of the mind," competition co-founder Tony Buzan tells the crowd. Buzan — an expert on the brain and the thinking process, and inventor of mind mapping — says many of the strongest competitor nations have long traditions of memory work.

"China — 10,000 years ago, they started to develop systems that helped children remember. In Japan: the same. The Indian, the Arabic nations: extraordinary memory systems," he says.

Across the hall, officials — their title is "arbiter" — shuffle decks of cards and double-check columns of words and numbers.

Co-founder and chess grandmaster Raymond Keene says few here are human calculators or prodigies born with photographic memories.

"Everybody has their own way of creating the ability to memorize the facts they want to memorize," he says. "So they aren’t machines — most of them, some of them are dyslexic, and they fought against that to get where they are."

Just ordinary people, he says, who have trained their brains to do extraordinary things.

Share

Facebook

Twitter

Email

23Comment

via Ready. Set. Memorize! : NPR.

In France, Free Birth Control For Girls At Age 15 : NPR

Beginning next year, young women in France between the ages of 15 and 18 will have access to birth control free of charge, and without parental notification. The French government says the new measure is intended to reduce pregnancies in this age group that result from a mixture of ignorance, taboo and lack of access to contraception.

One place where information is available on birth control, abortion and sexual abuse is a family planning clinic in a gritty neighborhood in the east of Paris.

On a recent day, a counselor talks with a handful of teenage girls in a sitting room. Clinic director Isabelle Louis says the young women who come to the clinic aren’t necessarily poor; she says many hail from well-off families and live on the other side of Paris.

“It’s not very easy for young women to go to see her family doctor and ask for contraception,” Louis says. “A lot of them are afraid the doctor would tell the parents she came.”

Starting in January, a law will protect these girls’ anonymity at their family doctor’s office, and the state will pick up the cost of the consultation and contraception. Under current rules, teenagers wanting absolute anonymity with a doctor have to pay for the visit in cash without submitting a claim to get the money back. And birth control is only partially reimbursed by the French state. Only clinics like this one are free.

via In France, Free Birth Control For Girls At Age 15 : NPR.

How Much Good Can You Do? There’s A Calculator For That : The Two-Way : NPR

This time of year, many are thinking about giving to one charity or another and wondering just how much good their donations will do.

Oxford University ethics professor Toby Ord talks with All Things Considered today about his “Giving What We Can” campaign, which encourages members to donate 10 percent of their incomes to charities, and the online calculators he’s come up with that aim to show how steady giving can produce some very positive effects.

For instance, Ord’s calculator estimates that if a 55-year-old earning $50,000 annually gave 10 percent of that income to charity each year until age 65:

20 “healthy lives” would be created (that’s somewhat akin to saving lives, but more about making lives better and less subject to such threats as chronic or deadly diseases).

There’s also a calculator that aims to show just how rich you may be. An American family of four with an annual household income of $100,000, for example, ranks among the richest 3.4 percent of the world’s population, according to Ord’s research.

Toby Ord, founder of Giving What We Can.

Toby Ord, founder of Giving What We Can.

Giving What We Can

via How Much Good Can You Do? There’s A Calculator For That : The Two-Way : NPR.

Current Intelligence: bombings and explosions reported within last 24 hours

Three incidents in areas in which the United States is active; one of the three may be the explosion of a long-buried land min. The lethality of land mines is no less than an IED or factory-produced munitions. One difference is that, because they’re clustered, more or less, in known areas, they’re easier to find, their relative age means that, however volatile, they don’t contain new technology and, if identified during demining operations, there’s at least the possibility of an information advantage.  Plus robots, ground-penetrating  radar, and other technologies. None of which makes a fraction of a difference in the absence of a commitment to clear mines in countries like Afghanistan.

From Afghanistan, Reuters via The New York Times:

Blast Kills 10 Afghan Girls Collecting Firewood – NYTimes.com – JALALABAD, Afghanistan (Reuters) – A blast killed 10 Afghan girls as they were collecting firewood in eastern Afghanistan on Monday, government officials said.

It was not immediately clear what caused the explosion in volatile Nangarhar province. It could have been a bomb planted by Taliban insurgents or a landmine left over from decades of conflict. The girls, between nine and 11 years old, were collecting wood in remote Chaparhar district, near the porous border with Pakistan, which is infested with some of the world’s most dangerous militant groups. “Unfortunately, 10 little girls were killed and two others wounded but we don’t know whether it was planted by the Taliban,” said Ahmadzia Abdulzai, provincial government spokesman. It was not immediately clear what caused the explosion in volatile Nangarhar province. It could have been a bomb planted by Taliban insurgents or a landmine left over from decades of conflict. The girls, between nine and 11 years old, were collecting wood in remote Chaparhar district, near the porous border with Pakistan, which is infested with some of the world’s most dangerous militant groups. “Unfortunately, 10 little girls were killed and two others wounded but we don’t know whether it was planted by the Taliban,” said Ahmadzia Abdulzai, provincial government spokesman.

Posted on the NYTimes.com website within an hour of the Reuters piece referenced above, Car Bomb Kills at Least 17 in Pakistan Tribal Region by Declan Walsh And Ihsanullah Tipu Mehsud. The headline – horrifying enough – understates matters. The piece in fact reports not one but two incidents, the second being the first “concerted attack” on the Peshawar airport. Excerpted from that piece:

Regarding the Car Bomb:

A powerful car bomb exploded near government offices in a town in the northwestern tribal belt on Monday, killing at least 17 people and wounding dozens, local officials said.

….

In Monday’s attack, officials said that a vehicle loaded with an estimated 90 pounds of explosives was detonated by remote control in Jamrud town, close to Peshawar, which borders the tribal belt. Although the blast occurred near the offices of a senior government official, its immediate force ripped through the women’s waiting area of a bus stop, said Jahangir Azim, a senior official in the Khyber agency. The dead included four Afghan woman and three children, he said. There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the blast, which damaged shops and vehicles across a wide radius. The dead and an estimated 44 wounded people were rushed to local hospitals.

The Airport attack:

“At the moment we are not in position to allege someone for the blast or to tell exactly what was the motive behind the attack by the perpetrators,” said Asmatullah Wazir, a local government official, by telephone. The Taliban attack against the Peshawar airport saw five militants die during a failed attempt to break through the airport perimeter wall on Saturday night, while another five died during a shootout with security forces at a nearby house on Sunday morning. At least five other people, including three civilians and two police, died in the attack, which marked the first concerted attack on the Peshawar airport. Although the Taliban claimed responsibility for that attack, officials identified several of the attackers as Uzbeks, suggesting that Al Qaeda-linked elements had also participated. Together, the two attacks killed at least 32 people and wounded more than 80, highlighting the challenges facing the security forces in the run-up to general elections that are due in the next six months.

Attack on Nearby House:

(Notice that the following quote is contained within the “airport attack” excerpt above). The Taliban attack against the Peshawar airport saw five militants die during a failed attempt to break through the airport perimeter wall on Saturday night, while another five died during a shootout with security forces at a nearby house on Sunday morning. (emphasis supplied).

Of these three attacks – we should keep in mind the possibility that they’re related  – either as a show of the ability to coordinate multiple attacks, as a means of diverting resources and attention.  That’s chilling, of course. And it’s hard to say which would be worse – one well-organized organization,  or a community with many groups willing to shed blood, with no reservations about the blood of civilians, including noncombatant women and children.

Third, the Reuters report Bombs and Blasts Kill 11 in Iraq’s Disputed Areas, which was moved onto the New York Times website at 0453  Eastern time, describes at least 11 bombings and shootings over two days in the area in which Iraqi Kurdistan borders Iraq proper.  It’s probably safe to say that the combined resources of Reuters, the Times, and the Washington Post in Iraq don’t permit covering a dozen incidents at the same time in any detail.

It seems to us  fairly obvious that the international community, including the United States, ought to try to brokera deal  which protects the Kurds’ interests – since the only thing all of their neighbors have in common is antipathy towards the Kurds and a commitment to deny them a homeland. The other inferences we draw from this slice of recent events are that things aren’t improving in Iraq, Afghanistan or Pakista; that things are likely to worsen with the departure of United States forces; and that are likely to worsen even if United States and NATO  forces were, tomorrow, to radically increase military and civil assistance.

There is one set of steps we could take, at relatively low cost: address the matter of land mines in Afghanistan:

  • Continue funding research into safe technologies for detecting and making safe land mines, including controlled detonations; we might find that, with some adaptations, our UAV (“Unmanned Aerial Vehicle,” or “drone”) technologies, may lend themselves to precisely targeting minefields and use the drones’ munitions to “cook off” the buried ordnance – with, of  course, the permission and cooperation of local communities
  • If we can’t eliminate them in the near term, our armed forces – with the assistance of NGOs and contractors – could mark and fence off minefields, essentially child-proofing them. Where minefields block critical routes,  we can do both:  clear a path sufficient for vehicle, farm equipment, animal, or  pedestrian passage, and secure the uncleared portion of the area.
  • If Afghani children are risking death to collect firewood, we can, as we plan our exit from Afghanistan, use our military and civilian engineers to make it unnecessary for children to die or be maimed because of Afghanistan’s energy poverty. What can we do?
  1. Help communities insulate housing with available materials, from the environment and using discarded materials. For instance, walls built with automobile tires filled with dirt have been used to construct sturdy, highly insulated and wind resistant-walls;
  2. Solar ovens are inexpensive, can be built with scrap metals, and permit cooking with little or no wood;
  3. There are a variety of systems  – again, relatively low-tech – which convert solar energy to heat and/or hot water;
  4. Photovoltaic  solar panels and low-speed wind turbines can provide enough energy for the essentials: light, refrigeration, and wireless communications. This means we can help Afghanis build a telecommunications and Internet infrastructure with reasonable bandwidth;  the cost of digging  trenches and burying fiber-optic cable – except perhaps in major cities – is an excuse for inaction.  Giving Afghanis an information infrastructure makes possible distance learning and telemedicine  (think remote diagnostics with general  practitioners and specialists).
  5. The proposals above are, or should be- non-controversial.  Our final proposal we make knowing that it will disturb many, but with the certainty that it is the least worst of available options: take steps to wards the decriminalization of opiates. The illicit market in opiates has, at different times,  financed the Taliban (who were clever enough to ban small-scale opium growers in order to force the price upwards), various warlords whose allegiances are, at best, available only for short-term rental, and made great fortunes for Pakistani military and intelligence officers, and well-connected members of Pakistan’s political elites. None of these men – and, apparently, they are all men – are allies of the United  States. Nor do they have the welfare of Pakistani or Afghani citizens in  mind.  These  are, for want of a more sophisticated phrase,  the bad guys.  Let’s do to them now what we did to the Mob when we ended Prohibition in 1933: take away their primary source of income.

Then, when we need the cooperation of a Pakistani official or an Afghan warlord, they may still be corrupt, but we’ll have reduced the likelihood that they’re already taking money from the Taliban, for whom opium revenues were and are unrivalled, even by the fortunes of Osama bin Laden before his family and the Saudi government  cut off access to his trust fund income (if not “trust funds” in the narrow Western legal meaning,  Osama was still, even with many brothers, a beneficiary of one of the largest estates or bequests in Saudi Arabia, larger than the estates of many Saudi royals).

Even if we have to buy opium to keep it off the market – we need to stop  the big-time  drug dealers – who, like their distant cousins in Mexico – are dependent on the illegal  status of drugs and its corollary – fantastically high prices for an agricultural commodity.

 

We’ve cut the head off of every  Al-Qaeda member who’s taken the top operational spot. Let’s take away their money, too. Bin Laden couldn’t have hid in Abbottabad for so long without lots of money to buy land, build a house with high  walls, and finance the travel expenses of a network of couriers. Front companies, office rent, disposable mobile phones, buying and renting lots of vehicles, bribing  the odd official – running a covert operation is pricey.

So – if we’re going to leave Afghanistan – let’s leave the citizenry safer and healthier – and take the drug money away from the bad guys on our way out.

 

 

 

 

xxx