Sustainability v Globalization

“Think Global, Act Local,” – Anonymous.

“Re-localization is a critical step in moving toward sustainability. The “global economy” is one of the culprits of our present mess,” – John Ehrenfeld.

“Sustainability is the possibility that human and other life will flourish on the planet forever,” – John Ehrenfeld.

Ehrenfeld, author of “Sustainability by Design,” here, lectures at Marlboro College in its MBA in Managing for Sustainability.

In “Italy’s accordion Industry: Tiny and Thriving“, NPR’s Morning Edition, on 1/9/12, discussed globalization in the context of the accordion industry in Italy. The piece began: “More than 70% of Italy’s gross domestic product comes from small businesses – and they’re not growing. Economists are worried that this will make it impossible for Italy to climb out of it’s massive $2.6 Trillion debt.”It concluded “But until more small companies [coalesce into giants like Prada] things in … Italy will stay out of tune with the global eonomy.”

But the piece also reported that the Italian accordion makers focus on quality. They don’t make many instruments – make about 20% of what they made in their heyday, one company makes 180 to 200 per month, but they make the Ferraris of the accordion world. More accordions are made today are by China, Inc., but those are cheap, low quality things. The Italian instruments sell for up to $50,000 each, to professional musicians such as Bjork and “The Decemberists.”

The story also asks about the long term consequences of 70% of a nation’s GDP coming from small businesses?

But it doesn’t ask:

What is the standard of living and quality of life for craftspeople in Italy? Are people happy? Fulfilled?
What is the wage and income differential between the workers and the owners? Between the manufacturers and the suppliers?
How interconnected are the local economies? Are they using locally sourced materials? Is the economy local? How much of the economy is local?
Aside from Italy’s debt, is their economy sustainable? Another way of asking this is “Could Italy service the debt with a 30 or 50 year payment schedule, with interest set at 2.5% or 3.5%? According to the CIA Factbook, (here) Italy has a population of about 61 million people. While NPR puts the Italian debt at $2.6 Trillion, according to CNN Money, (here) Italy’s debt is about $262 Billion. That’s a per capita debt load of about $4300, according to CNN Money, and $41,995. $4,300 doesn’t seem too bad. Even $42,000 isn’t too bad, over a person’s lifetime. In the United States, $43,000 buys one or two years of college at the undergraduate level.

As noted, the piece ended with “But until more small companies [coalesce into giants like Prada] things in … Italy will stay out of tune with the global eonomy.” This leads me to my final unanswered questions:

Is it a bad thing for Italy to be out of tune with the global economy? and

Is Italy really out of tune with the global economy?

The first two things that come to my mind when I think of “The Global Economy” are China, Inc. / WalMart, and oil. (I see China, Inc. and WalMart as one thing, but that’s another story). I see environmental degredation, poverty of mind, body, and spirit, and working conditions that equate to slavery.Personally, I’d rather be making accordions for a living wage in Italy, where I have a chance to open my own shop, than in China where conditions are equivalent to slavery.

Bjork, a singer from Reykjavík, Iceland, and the Decemberists, from Portland, Oregon, are buying Italian accordions. They would rather spend $50,000 on accordions from Italy than $399 on accordions from China. This suggests that the Italian accordion makers are, in fact, in the global economy, albeit on a different scale of that of the Chinese and one that economists don’t understand.

This brings me to the olive trees pictured above. Olive trees take a long time to mature – 35 to 150 years. But they live, thrive, and produce olives – for a very long time – hundreds of years, thousands of years with luck and proper cultivation. (Achaia Olive Groves).

And just as I would rather be making accordions that sell for $50,000 than those that sell for $399, I would rather sell 200 units for $50,000 each than 25,063 units for $399.

Matthew Aid, author of Intel Wars, on Fresh Air

Fascinating interview with intelligence historian Matthew Aid, author of new book Intel Wars, on NPR’s Fresh Air Well worth listening to. Why America’s Spies Struggle To Keep Up “In Intel Wars, historian Matthew Aid details how bureaucratic policies and a glut of raw data have weakened the intelligence community in its war against would-be terrorists.”

Iran isn’t the most transparent of countries, so it’s hard to know whether this is another country’s attempt to slow down the Iranian nuclear program, something to do with Iranian politics or something else entirely.

What follows is excerpted from BBC correspondent Mohsen Asgari’s report Iran car explosion ‘kills nuclear scientist’ in Tehran

A university lecturer and nuclear scientist has been killed in a car explosion in north Tehran, reports say. Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan, an academic who also worked at the Natanz uranium enrichment facility, and another unidentified person were killed in the attack. The blast happened after a motorcyclist stuck an apparent bomb to the car. Several Iranian nuclear scientists have been assassinated in recent years, with Iran blaming Israel and the US.

Both countries deny the accusations. Iran’s Vice-President Mohammad Reza Rahimi told state television that the attack against Mr Ahmadi-Roshan would not stop “progress” in the country’s nuclear programme. He called the killing “evidence of [foreign] government-sponsored terrorism”. Local sources said Wednesday’s blast took place at a faculty of Iran’s Allameh Tabatai university. Two others were reportedly also injured in the blast, which took place near Gol Nabi Street, in the north of the capital. ‘Magnetic bomb’

Mr Ahmadi-Roshan, 32, was a graduate of Sharif University and supervised a department at Natanz uranium enrichment facility in Isfahan province, semi-official news agency Fars reported. “The bomb was a magnetic one and the same as the ones previously used for the assassination of the scientists, and the work of the Zionists [Israelis],” deputy Tehran governor Safarali Baratloo said.

Witnesses said they had seen two people on the motorbike fix the bomb to the car, reported to be a Peugeot 405. A second person died in the attack though the car itself remained virtually intact. The BBC’s Mohsen Asgari, in Tehran, says that the explosion was caused by a targeted, focussed device intended to to kill one or two people and small enough not to be heard from far away.

How to Deal With Iran: Sanctions? Bomb? Rescue?

While the editors of Popular Logistics understand that it is important to prepare for emergencies – and carry flashlights, per the 911 Commission, we also understand that it is important to avoid emergencies.

We also note that President Theodor Roosevelt once said “Speak softly but carry a big stick.”

ABC News reports the statements made by the candidates for President in regards to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Most agree that Iran wants nuclear power and nuclear weapons.

ABC, Quoting Candidate Barack Obama, from 2008 as saying, “In confronting these threats, I will not take the military option off the table. But our first measure must be sustained, direct and aggressive diplomacy…. I will always keep the threat of military action on the table to defend our security and our ally, Israel.” The article did not mention the Stuxnet attack on the Iranian Nuclear program, which has been reported to have slowed the development of nuclear technology in Iran. While the origin of the computer virus is unknown, it is reported to be American or American and Israeli.

Newt Gingrich supports regime change in Iran, and using military action if necessary “as a last recourse.” (ABC News).

Jon Huntsman: “Realistically, you’ve got to have all options on the table. You’ve got to be prepared to use all elements of national power.” (ABC News)

Ron Paul: “Why do we have to bomb so many countries? Why are we [having] 900 bases in 130 countries and we’re totally bankrupt? . . . We need a strong national defense . . . and we need to only go to war with a declaration of war.” Paul has called sanctions against Iran an “act of war” that could damage the global economy by impeding the flow of oil. “I think they solution is to do a lot less a lot sooner, and mind our own business, and we wouldn’t have this threat of another war.” (ABC News)

Mitt Romney: ‘Ultimately, regime change is what’s going to be necessary,” says Romney, who believes both “covert and overt” actions should be used to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons. He said the U.S. should develop military plans, though he hoped they were never put into effect. “But the Iranians will understand that we have prepared credible military options, that they’ll know there is a consequence of becoming nuclear.” (ABC News)

Rick Santorum: “‘Yes, that’s the plan,’ said Santorum, when asked if he would order air strikes on Iran if they were going to obtain nuclear weapons. The conservative dark horse … is the most bellicose of the GOP contenders when it comes to Iran. In an interview with Glenn Beck, he said Iran’s regime was worse than al Qaeda, and that an attack on Iran would prevent war.” (ABC News).

As noted, President Theodore Roosevelt once said “Speak softly but carry a big stick.” Huntsman and Obama are speaking softly. Paul is whining. Gingrich, Romney and Santorum are waving their sticks. Santorum went as far as to say “an attack would prevent war.” That is “War prevents war.”

Iran, like Syria, is unstable. The people want food and a healthier economy. They also want change. Gingrich, Romney, and Santorum are saying what the Ayatollahs and Ahmadinejad want to hear. Their bellicose statements unify the people behind the Ayatollahs and Ahmadinejad. But rescuing fishermen – this is the last thing the Ayatollahs and Ahmadinejad want us to do. It shows that they cannot protect Iranians against Somali pirates. It unifies the people of Iran against the government of Iran. And it unifies the people of Iran behind the United States.

It also begs the question – “Why is piracy so common in Somalia?”

Shakespeare, Sorkin, and The American Presidency

“If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, smells like a duck, and quacks … it’s a duck” – anonymous

“What’s in a name? A Rose by any other name would smell as sweet” – Shakespeare, “Romeo and Juliet.”

“Being President of this country is entirely about character.” – Aaron Sorkin “The American President” /screenplay / YouTube.

Santorum, Gingrich & Lobbying

Brooklyn Bridge, courtesy Destination360

Since he lost his reelection campaign in 2006, the Honorable former Senator, Rick Santorum, has been consulting, primarily to companies which benefited from legislation he pushed as a Senator. He earned over $1.0 Million in 2010. Like the Honorable Mr. Gingrich, we know Mr. Santorum is not a “Lobbyist” because he has not REGISTERED as a “Lobbyist.” (NY Times article by Mike McIntire and Michael Luo here and Op-Ed by Maureen Dowd here.)

However, as reported (here) by ABC News, the non-profit “Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington” (CREW) filed a complaint with the U.S. attorney in D.C. and the FBI in which it claims Gingrich repeatedly met with or called members of Congress to pressure them to pass a contentious 2003 Medicare reform bill — legislation from which members of a Gingrich-founded group may have directly profited and Gingrich himself may have indirectly benefitted. (Press Release, here).

These men may try to sell us the Brooklyn Bridge. Or they may try to lease it to someone else, who will in turn erect toll booths and charge us to drive, bike, or walk across.

Continue reading →

Infowar – BBC reports "Israel vows to retaliate after credit cards are hacked"

Israel has said it will respond to cyber-attacks in the same way it responds to violent “terrorist” acts after the credit card details of thousands of its citizens were published online. A hacker named OxOmar claiming to be Saudi said on Thursday he had leaked the private information. Credit card companies say at least 6,000 valid cards have been exposed. Reports say OxOmar may be a 19-year-old living in Mexico.

Israel vows to retaliate after credit cards are hacked via BBC News.

Social Networks Reduce Disaster Risk

Ben Franklin is reputed to have said “we shall hang together, or we shall hang separately.” Long-time readers know that it is our firmly-held conviction that social networks matter more than any single type of preparation or cached equipment. Here is an excerpt from The Key To Disaster Survival? Pals, Neighbors broadcast on the July 4, 2011 edition of All Things Considered:

A researcher’s data suggest that ambulances, firetrucks and government aid aren’t the principal ways most people survive during and recover after a disaster. Instead, it’s the personal ties between members of a community that really matter.

If you want an easy template for doing this in your community, check out the 3 Steps Program.

Strait of Hormuz: oil supply chokepoint

Another example of the risk of petroleum supply interruption: the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz. While it’s hard to imagine that United States military forces wouldn’t prevail in a conflict with Iran, that confrontation might easily escalate.

Excerpted from Oil Price Would Skyrocket if Iran Closed the Strait of Hormuz by Clifford Krauss at NYTimes.com:

HOUSTON — If Iran were to follow through with its threat to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, a vital transit route for almost one-fifth of the oil traded globally, the impact would be immediate: Energy analysts say the price of oil would start to soar and could rise 50 percent or more within days.

An Iranian blockade by means of mining, airstrikes or sabotage is logistically well within Tehran’s military capabilities. But despite rising tensions with the West, including a tentative ban on European imports of Iranian oil announced Wednesday, Iran is unlikely to take such hostile action, according tomost Middle East political experts.

United States officials say the Navy’s Fifth Fleet, based in nearby Bahrain, stands ready to defend the shipping route and, if necessary, retaliate militarily against Iran.

Iran’s own shaky economy relies on exporting at least two million barrels of oil a day through the strait, which is the only sea route from the Persian Gulf and “the world’s most important oil choke point,” according to Energy Department analyst

What does this mean? We think it’s most important in understanding how fragile our dependence on oil is – particularly because protecting requires us to ask our military personnel to put themselves in harm’s way. Petroleum dependence – energy policy – shouldn’t be a casus belli. We have other choices – conservation and renewable energy sources. If we reduce our dependence on oil, we win in many ways: reducing risk to our armed forces; cheaper energy, and better environmental and health outcomes.

Reducing the power of the current Iranian ruling elite is a bonus.

Iran, Oil, & the NY Times

Iranian Warships in Gulf of Hormuz. Ebrahim Norouzi/Jamejamonline, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Norouzi, Getty Images

While Iran is threatening to block the Straits of Hormuz, and various agents are calling for military actions, the crew of an American destroyer patrolling the North Arabian Sea rescued 13 Iranian fishermen captured by Somali pirates in November, 2011. U.S. Navy Rescues Iranians Held by Pirates, 1/6/12, Robert Mackey and J. David Goodman. The article quotes one of the rescued fishermen, Fazel Ur Rehman, 28, “It is like you were sent by God. Every night we prayed for God to rescue us. And now you are here.”

Asian Customers of Iran Look for Other Oil Sources, 1/7/12, Keith Bradsher and Clifford Krauss,

In Bold Step, Europe Nears Embargo on Iran Oil, 1/5/12, Steven Erlander,

Iran Warns the United States Over Aircraft Carrier, 1/4/12, J. David Goodman,

Oil Price Would Skyrocket if Iran Closed the Strait of Hormuz, 1/5/12, Clifford Krauss,

Noise Level Rises Over Iran Threat to Close Strait of Hormuz, 12/29/11, Rick Gladstone,

Oil Prices Predicted to Remain Above $100 a Barrel Next Year, 12/29/11, Diane Cardwell and Rick Gladstone, Lawrence J. Furman, at Popular Logistics, forecast, “The Price of oil will be at $150 to $170 per barrel in Dec., 2012. The price of gasoline will hit $6.00 per gallon in NYC and California.”

Iran Calls Threat of Sacntions from European Union ‘Economic War’, 12/29/11, J. David Goodman,

Iran Threatens to Block Oil in Reply to Sanctions, 12/28/11, David E. Sanger and Anne Lowrey,

Iran Admits Sanctions are Inflicting Damage, 12/20/11, Rick Gladstone,

Given the implications of petroleum shortages and/or price spikes, current tensions with Iran are a serious matter, entirely aside from one’s opinions about Iranian government’s behavior. We note that in preparing a piece about the possibility of Iran attempting to limit world petroleum supplies, a search of the The Times for “+Iran +Oil” yields no less than ten pieces of reporting. We see our role, at Popular Logistics, as framing and interpreting what is going on. We strive to be primary sources of understanding while second-hand sources of news, especially in foreign theaters such as the Middle East, Europe and Asia. We rely on The New York Times, WNYC (our local NPR affiliate), the World Factbook of the CIA, and other agencies of the United States Government, the WorldWatch Institute and other Primary sources of news and information. And so, we pay our taxes, because, as Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes said, “Taxes are the price we pay for civilization,” and (to pat ourselves on the back) we subscribe to the New York Times and WNYC.

Red Cross Physician Kidnapped in Qetta, Pakistan

Gunmen have kidnapped a British doctor working with the International Committee of the Red Cross in the south-western Pakistan city of Quetta, the organisation said.

Armed gunmen seized Khalil Rasjed Dale at about noon local time on Thursday. He was driving in the centre of Quetta from his office to his home, ICRC spokesman Christian Cardon said.

“He was in a clearly marked vehicle with an ICRC emblem. Several armed gunmen hijacked him,” he said, adding that Dale’s family had been informed. He added: “We call for Khalil’s rapid and unconditional release.”

Dale was based in Quetta, the capital of Pakistan’s troubled south-western Baluchistan province. He was working as the ICRC’s health programme manager. It is unclear how long he had been based in the region, or whether his family were in Pakistan or in the UK.

The Foreign Office said it was urgently investigating the incident. No one immediately claimed responsibility, but criminal gangs have often targeted foreign aid workers in the hope of securing large ransoms for their release.

“We are checking all routes out of the districts, but we have not been able to trace that vehicle,” Nazeer Kurd, a senior city police official, said. “We are trying to ensure that the vehicle does not leave Quetta.” Baluchistan is Pakistan’s biggest but poorest province, where Baluch separatist militants are fighting a protracted insurgency for more autonomy and control over the area’s natural resources.

Pro-Taliban militants are also active in the province, which shares borders with Afghanistan and Iran.

Four health workers, including two doctors, were kidnapped by militants last week from the Pishin area of Baluchistan, near Quetta. They were freed after a shootout between police and their kidnappersFrom The Guardian, Gunmen have kidnapped a British doctor working with the International Committee of the Red Cross in the south-western Pakistan city of Quetta, the organisation said.

Armed gunmen seized Khalil Rasjed Dale at about noon local time on Thursday. He was driving in the centre of Quetta from his office to his home, ICRC spokesman Christian Cardon said.

Pro-Taliban militants are also active in the province, which shares borders with Afghanistan and Iran.

Gunmen have kidnapped a British doctor working with the International Committee of the Red Cross in the south-western Pakistan city of Quetta, the organisation said. Armed gunmen seized Khalil Rasjed Dale at about noon local time on Thursday. He was driving in the centre of Quetta from his office to his home, ICRC spokesman Christian Cardon said. “He was in a clearly marked vehicle with an ICRC emblem. Several armed gunmen hijacked him,” he said, adding that Dale’s family had been informed. He added: “We call for Khalil’s rapid and unconditional release.” Dale was based in Quetta, the capital of Pakistan’s troubled south-western Baluchistan province. He was working as the ICRC’s health programme manager. It is unclear how long he had been based in the region, or whether his family were in Pakistan or in the UK. The Foreign Office said it was urgently investigating the incident. No one immediately claimed responsibility, but criminal gangs have often targeted foreign aid workers in the hope of securing large ransoms for their release. “We are checking all routes out of the districts, but we have not been able to trace that vehicle,” Nazeer Kurd, a senior city police official, said. “We are trying to ensure that the vehicle does not leave Quetta.” Baluchistan is Pakistan’s biggest but poorest province, where Baluch separatist militants are fighting a protracted insurgency for more autonomy and control over the area’s natural resources. Pro-Taliban militants are also active in the province, which shares borders with Afghanistan and Iran. Four health workers, including two doctors, were kidnapped by militants last week from the Pishin area of Baluchistan, near Quetta. They were freed after a shootout between police and their kidnappers

Guardian: Guangdong bus driver killed by H5N1 flu strain

A Chinese man diagnosed with the country’s first case of bird flu in more than a year has died in the southern city of Shenzhen.

The 39-year-old bus driver was admitted to hospital with pneumonia but tested positive for the H5N1 bird flu virus. This is the third case in two weeks. This report is disturbing on its face. That said, we wonder how many people around the world would be willing to bet their lives on the Chinese government’s veracity. Please feel free to comment, but let’s try to keep it polite. Excerpted from
Bird flu virus kills Chinese man

A Chinese man diagnosed with the country’s first case of bird flu in more than a year has died in the southern city of Shenzhen.

The 39-year-old bus driver was admitted to hospital with pneumonia but tested positive for the H5N1 bird flu virus.

The strain has a high mortality rate, killing up to 60% of infected humans.

The man, surnamed Chen, developed a fever on 21 December and was admitted to hospital on Christmas Day. Local health officials said 120 people who had close contact with Chen have not developed any abnormal symptoms.

The Chinese health ministry has informed the World Health Organisation about the case, health officials added.

During the month prior to his fever, Chen, apparently had no direct contact with poultry and did not travel out of Shenzhen.

The city, home to 10 million people, is separated by a small river from Hong Kong, where 19,000 chickens have been slaughtered after two were confirmed last week to have died from the H5N1 virus.

With thanks to The Guardian and staff for their coverage.

The city, home to 10 million people, is separated by a small river from Hong Kong, where 19,000 chickens have been slaughtered after two were confirmed last week to have died from the H5N1 virus.

Keynes, Krugman continue to give good advice

Paul Krugman continues to be persuasive, although we worry that it’s necessary for him to make this point. Excerpted from “Keynes Was Right:”

“The boom, not the slump, is the right time for austerity at the Treasury.” So declared John Maynard Keynes in 1937, even as F.D.R. was about to prove him right by trying to balance the budget too soon, sending the United States economy — which had been steadily recovering up to that point — into a severe recession. Slashing government spending in a depressed economy depresses the economy further; austerity should wait until a strong recovery is well under way.

Unfortunately, in late 2010 and early 2011, politicians and policy makers in much of the Western world believed that they knew better, that we should focus on deficits, not jobs, even though our economies had barely begun to recover from the slump that followed the financial crisis. And by acting on that anti-Keynesian belief, they ended up proving Keynes right all over again.

In declaring Keynesian economics vindicated I am, of course, at odds with conventional wisdom. In Washington, in particular, the failure of the Obama stimulus package to produce an employment boom is generally seen as having proved that government spending can’t create jobs. But those of us who did the math realized, right from the beginning, that the Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (more than a third of which, by the way, took the relatively ineffective form of tax cuts) was much too small given the depth of the slump. And we also predicted the resulting political backlash.

So the real test of Keynesian economics hasn’t come from the half-hearted efforts of the U.S. federal government to boost the economy, which were largely offset by cuts at the state and local levels. It has, instead, come from European nations like Greece and Ireland that had to impose savage fiscal austerity as a condition for receiving emergency loans — and have suffered Depression-level economic slumps, with real G.D.P. in both countries down by double digits.

Link

Professor David Levine “John H. Biggs Distinguished Professor of Economics at Washington University in St. Louis.” What is Game Theory?

For the 25th Anniversary of the Bruntdland Commission Report on Our Common Future

Image courtesy of NASA. Our tax dollars at work.

Let us remember the Blue Marble. There would be no food – and no life – without sunlight and clean water.

The whales, and the dolphins, the deer and the polar bear, are our cousins.

Let us return to the UN on March 20, May 9, June 20, September 3, and December 21 with delegations of thinkers and builders of sustainability and demand, respectfully, that we as members of communities of Earth, whether economically “Developed,” such as the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, France, or Canada; or “Developing,” such as Brazil, China, India, and Mexico; whether materally rich or materially poor, set as our overriding goal “Sustainable Development.”

This, “Sustainable Development,” as defined by Gro Harlem Brundtland as “development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the abilities of future generations to meet their needs,” or as defined by John Ehrenfeld as “development that leads to flourishing forever,” is simply and precisely development around harnessing natural processes such as wind, sunlight, ocean currents, the heat of the earth’s core, rather than extracting and consuming natural resources such as coal, oil, subterranean methane, and uranium, and creating toxic wastes.

Let us embrace not only the negative goals of lowering greenhouse gas emissions, and reducing distribution of toxic substances such as the arsenic, lead, mercury, uranium, zinc, etc. emitted from burning coal but also the positive goal of rearchitecting our economies – our interconnected global economy – around sustainable development.

Not more stuff distributed inequitably, but GOOD stuff, equitably distributed. After all, do we need a new cellphone every two years? Or a new car every three or four? How many shoes, trousers, shirts, coats, cameras, televisions, etc. does a person need?

Let us do this as a protest outside the UN, along the lines of Occupy Wall Street and other demonstrations – with substantive statements, drums, guitars, flair, and enthusiasm, and cover it ourselves on YouTube, Twitter, the blogosphere, and Ted Talks, but let us also demand that our Representatives in state houses, governor’s offices, the House, the Senate, and the White House and city halls and state capitals across the world listen and bring our message to the UN for a day, an hour, or even just 15 minutes.

We want to celebrate a turning point in human history. Let us do this on March 20, the anniversary of the Brundtland Commission Report. And, as May 8 and September 2 respectively mark the 67th anniversaries of the Allied victory over the Nazis and Imperial Japan in World War II, somber turning points in human history, and let us return to the United Nations, and to our city halls, state capitals, congresses and parliments on on May 9 and September 3, and on the solstices June 20 and December 21.

And let us do this with hope for peace, love, and the future.