Saving the Economy, Part Deux

Tweet In Part 1, I criticized “How to Really Save the Economy“, an op-ed in the New York Times, published Sept. 10, 2011. So how do we really save the economy?

“One of the best kept secrets in New York City,” I wrote, “is the existence of a 40 kilowatt (KW) photovoltaic solar array on the Whitehall Street terminal of the Staten Island Ferry,” pictured above, and first covered in Popular Logistics in 2007, here.

There are 90,000 public schools in the United States. Suppose we were to install a 40 KW solar energy system on each of them. PV solar modules require very little maintenance over their 35 to 45 year life expectancy. My initial thought was $5 per watt or $5,000 per kilowatt, but $4,000 per kilowatt is more realistic for the near term price of solar, particularly at the utility scale. This is where we expect the cost of solar in the Q4 2012 timeframe, without subsidies.

At $4,000 per KW of nameplate capacity, each of these 90,000 systems would cost $160,000. This 3.6 gigawatts of distributed daylight-only capacity would cost about $14.4 billion.

It seems to make sense to use taxpayer monies to finance these systems; taxpayers pay the electric bills for public schools and other public infrastructure, so rather than pay a utility to burn coal, oil, or gas, or harness nuclear fission, we could buy solar modules, put them on the roof and transform sunlight into electricity. But what are the other implications? What would it give us? And what do we do at night? How much juice do we get?

The US Dept. of Energy’s (DOE) National Renewable Energy Lab’s (NREL) PV Watts solar energy calculator tells you the power you can expect from a given solar system anywhere in the US. Regarding night-time; solar is effective in conjunction with other sources of energy, and other clean, renewable, sustainable sources include wind, geothermal, micro-hydro, biofuel.

Every public school in the country would have a power plant that generates power, during the day, with no fuel cost and no waste., and no associated mining, processing, transportation, fuel costs and no waste management costs. At $5.00 per watt, or $5 billion per gigawatt, the capital costs are lower than the costs of new nuclear and significantly lower than the costs of coal with carbon sequestration, with none of the risks or hazards associated with the systems: no arsenic, mercury, lead, thorium, uranium, zinc, or carbon.

The systems would be tied to the electric grid, after all, while most of their operations are during the day, schools need power at night. If these systems could be disconnected from the electric grid, then we would have 90,000 structures distributed all over the United States, with power during the day in the event of power outages from storms, earthquakes, accidents, etc. Even if we lost 10% of them in a disaster like Katrina, or an event like Irene or the recent earthquake, we would still have 81,000 all over the country. Coupled with efficient refrigeration systems, we would have shelters with power to keep food and medications cold during emergencies; and these would be distributed across the country.

The solar systems would obviously have to be installed here, which would stimulate the economy, and we could even require the components to be manufactured here, further stimulating the economy.

Why not business as usual?

As reported here the North Anna nuclear plants in Virginia were shut down during the earthquake a few days before hurricane Irene. The Dominion plants in Virginia, and the Oyster Creek plant in New Jersey were shut down and the Millstone 2 & 3 plants in Connecticut and the Brunswick plants in North Carolina were brought to reduced capacity during Irene, and the Fort Calhoun plant in Nebraska has been shut down due to flooding, and losing $1 million per day, since June 6, 2011.

In Part 1, I criticized “How to Really Save the Economy, “an op-ed in the New York Times, published Sept. 10, 2011. “The United States,” according to Robert Barro, who teaches economics at Harvard and is a “fellow” at the Hoover Institution, “is in the third year of a grand experiment by the Obama administration.”

“This is inaccurate,” I wrote, Obama is the President, but the US Constitution provides a framework in which power is divided into three branches of the Federal government, and the power of the each of the branches is checked and balanced by the others, and “all power not expressly granted to the federal government is held by the states and the citizens.” It would be more accurate, therefore, to say,

“The United States is in the third year of an experiment in governance between the Obama administration, the Congress, the Judiciary, the Republican Party, various special interests, and the citizens. This appears to be an experiment in governance by not-governing. Due to significant differences of opinion with regards to the direction in which to drive the ship of state, the ship of state appears to be floundering. Governance by not-governing doesn’t work!”

In parts 3 and 4 I hope to present feedback from the telecommunications and wind industries. Meanwhile, another radioactive nail in the nuclear coffin – an explosion in a low-level waste management facility in France killed one person and injured four. DC Bureau, Associated Press reports “An explosion at a nuclear waste facility in southern France killed one person and injured four on Monday. Authorities said there was no radioactive leak, but critics urged France to rethink its nuclear power in the wake of the catastrophe at Japan’s Fukushima plant.The Nuclear Safety Authority declared the accident “terminated” soon after the blast at a furnace in the Centraco site, in the southern Languedoc-Roussillon region, about 20 miles (32 kilometers) from the city of Avignon. One of the injured suffered severe burns…. the body was burned so badly it was carbonized”

Saving the Economy, Numero Uno

Tweet “The United States,” according to Robert Barro, who teaches economics at Harvard and is a “fellow” at the Hoover Institution, “is in the third year of a grand experiment by the Obama administration.” This is inaccurate. Obama is the President, but the US Constitution provides a framework in which power is divided into three branches of the Federal government, and the power of the each of the branches is checked and balanced by the others, and “all power not expressly granted to the federal government is held by the states and the citizens. It would be more accurate to say that the United States is in the third year of a grand experiment by the Obama administration, the Congress, the Judiciary, the Republican Party, various special interests, and the citizens.

Barro published this flawed analysis in “How to Really Save the Economy, “an op-ed in the New York Times, published Sept. 10, 2011.

“How is the experiment going?” Barro asks rhetorically. “Not well,” he answers.

How could it? On January 16, 2009, a week before the Inauguration, Rush Limbaugh, one of the leaders of the right wing of the United States said, “I hope Obama fails.” (The text is on Limbaugh’s site. An audio is on You Tube.) As I wrote, on Popular Logistics, here, a hope that the President fails is hope that the United States fails.

As was reported, here, in the Washington Post on August 6, 2011, and here on Popular Logistics, on August 8, 2011, John Boehner, Eric Cantor, Paul Ryan, and the “Young Guns,” their Republican comrades in the House of Representatives, PLANNED as far back as January, 2009 to use the debt ceiling to create a political crisis. The Republicans have been trying to actualize Mr. Limbaugh’s hopes.

Barro is a professor of neoclassical economics, and a fellow of the Hoover Institution. What he doesn’t understand, and what President Herbert Hoover didn’t understand, is that under economic conditions such as we see today, while businesses and government are able to create jobs, business owners are risk averse, and won’t risk capital. The government MUST create jobs, because businesses won’t. Everyone who has a job and a 10 year old car, and is hesitant with regards to buying a new car, understands this. John Maynard Keynes understood this. Franklin Delano Roosevelt understood this. Herbert Hoover didn’t – which is why he lost to Mr. Roosevelt in 1932, and why, 36 years later, President Nixon said “We are all Keynesians now.” (Note that Mr. Nixon has been called many things. However, “Liberal” is not one of them.)

So how do we really save the economy? See Part Deux.

One of the best kept secrets in New York City is the existence of a 40 kilowatt (KW) photovoltaic solar array on the Whitehall Street terminal of the Staten Island Ferry, pictured above, and first covered in Popular Logistics in 2007, here.

There are 90,000 public schools in the United States. Suppose we were to install a 40 KW solar energy system on each of them. PV solar modules require very little maintenance over their 35 to 45 year life expectancy. At a cost of $5,000 per kilowatt of nameplate capacity, each of these 90,000 systems would cost $200,000. This 3.6 gigawatts of distributed daylight-only capacity would cost about $14.4 billion. The total costs would probably be less because PV Solar is subject to economic forces like Moore’s Law.

It seems to make sense to use taxpayer monies to finance these systems; taxpayer monies pay the electric bills for public schools and other public infrastructure.

Every public school in the country would have a power plant that generates power, during the day, with no fuel cost and no waste. And with no associated mining, processing, transportation, fuel costs and no waste management costs. At $5.00 per watt, or $5 billion per gigawatt, the capital costs are lower than the costs of new nuclear and significantly lower than the costs of coal with carbon sequestration, with none of the risks or hazards associated with the systems: no arsenic, mercury, lead, thorium, uranium, zinc, or carbon.

But what are the other implications? What would it give us? Again. see Part Deux

WSJ: Authorities Try to Discern if Bomb Plot Is Real – WSJ.com

Excerpted from The Wall Street Journal, Authorities Try to Discern if Bomb Plot Is Real, by Adam Entous, Devlin Barrett, and Jessica Holzer. Emphasis supplied. Our view is that the governmental response at all levels has been outstanding. The question remains whether Al-Qaeda used this threat

in order to force us to waste resources, and perhaps respond less methodically next time by making us accustomed, in a sense, to this sort of threat?
In order to smoke out a suspected informant?
In order to study our responses as an aid in their planning?

My comments above are not meant to suggest anything should have been done differently; rather to suggest how difficult it is to counter this conflict effectively.

U.S. intelligence and law-enforcement agencies have been on heightened alert since Wednesday, when authorities first learned of a suspected plot involving one or more car bombs in New York and Washington timed around Sunday’s 9/11 anniversary.

Agents have been looking for three people allegedly involved, but officials said on Sunday it remained unclear whether the car-bomb plot was actually under way or if they were chasing a false lead intended to trip up U.S. security and scare Americans.

John Brennan, President Barack Obama’s top counterterrorism adviser, said on Fox News Sunday that the administration was taking the threat very seriously. “I want everything to be done to find out whether this information from these sources has any credibility to it,” he said.

The car-bomb tip was obtained by U.S. intelligence officials from a source in Afghanistan who has been reliable in the past, officials said.

The source told the Americans that al Qaeda’s leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, believed to be in Pakistan, approved the plot. But U.S. officials stressed that the information has yet to be corroborated. Mr. Zawahiri took the reins of al Qaeda after the U.S. killed Osama bin Laden in May.

Underlining heightened concerns about the threat, Mr. Obama huddled Saturday with his national-security team to assess the latest threat information. At the meeting, Mr. Obama said the U.S. couldn’t afford to “relax its counterterrorism efforts in the weeks and months that follow” the anniversary on Sunday, reflecting concerns that attacks could still be in the works.

In addition to the suspected car-bomb plot linked to al Qaeda in Pakistan, U.S. authorities believe Yemen-based al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has ambitions for its own attacks.

On Sunday, top officials from various departments and agencies involved in counterterrorism and law enforcement met again at the White House to review information on the threat.

The suspected car-bomb plot spurred law-enforcement officials late last week to roll out extra security precautions, including vehicle checkpoints in New York, where police officers were scrutinizing trucks and vans.

New York also beefed up the number of state troopers at the World Trade Center site, Pennsylvania Station, Grand Central Terminal and the region’s bridges and tunnels.

Many of the security measures were already planned around Sunday’s Sept. 11 anniversary but some measures were stepped up in response to the threat, which was first reported Thursday.

In the wake of the raid that killed bin Laden in May, the U.S. has characterized the threat from al Qaeda’s central leadership in Pakistan as waning.

But a counterterrorism official said the information the U.S. received about the suspected car-bomb plot raised alarm bells because of its level of specificity.

The source in Afghanistan gave the U.S. a description of the individuals involved, their tactics, target locations and the plot’s timing for the days immediately before or after Sunday’s anniversary.

Even as they search for leads in the investigation, authorities don’t have enough information about the three described individuals to know their true identities. While multiple officials have said the original source of the information provided highly detailed information about the plot, the details about the alleged plotters is frustratingly vague, U.S. officials said.

Officials have repeatedly said the information remained unconfirmed and could be an al Qaeda attempt to misdirect the U.S., or the operatives could have overstated their capabilities. U.S. officials had said that in the limited time left before the 10th anniversary on Sunday, they might not be able to verify the intelligence.

Emphasis supplied. Via Authorities Try to Discern if Bomb Plot Is Real – WSJ.com.

Why you need a "POTS" phone, and where to get them

“POTS” is phone-geek and industry slang for “Plain Old Telephone Service.” A P.O.T.S. pone is a telephone, rotary (that’s a “dial,” a big wheel on the front of the phone, for our younger readers) or touch-tone, which doesn’t have a whole bunch of extra features requiring, usually, direct current (DC), which in the United States, usually means an unwieldy black “power brick,” which is plugged into a wall socket or extension cord, converts the alternating current to direct current, powers the extra features (speakers, lights, answering machine) but not the voice connection itself – which is powered by the telephone system at the nearest phone company facility, usually referred to as the “central office,” although, unlike regular offices, they’re often unattended. One can’t walk in and pay a bill, or request service; in that sense, it’s not an office at all. Think of it as network hub. Better-run telephone companies, certainly including the company we now refer to as “Verizon,” but which others of us grew up thinking of as “New York Telephone,” have their own emergency generators.

So – when the power grid fails, assuming the copper wires which connect you to your central office haven’t been cut (more likely in suburban or rural areas where the cost of laying underground cable for a relatively sparse population is prohibited your “POTS” phone will still work in a power outage. You can still call 911, for instance.

However, if you have a “POTS” phone but no one you care about does – not so good.

So – what we at Popular Logistics would like you to do is this: buy yourself a POTS phone, better yet, buy several of them, and then use your powers of persuasion to make sure that the people you care about and who care about you have them, too.

If you’re only going to have one, we suggest a touch-tone phone, because there are systems which will want you to enter data via the keypad.

Reasons for ignoring this advice, and why they don’t stand up to scrutiny

“They don’t make them anymore.” That’s not true, and we’re going to show you here to get them.

“They must be really expensive.” Also not true – we’ve found reliable reconditioned touch-tone desk telephones for as low as $10 with shipping, and if you buy a few at once, the shipping costs get lower. And if we can get enough readers to do this, we might be able to work out a bulk purchase.

“They’re ugly.” We don’t think so. Neither do the Museum of Modern Art, which has telephone by the industrial designer Henry Dreyfuss in its Design Collection, as does the Cooper-Hewitt design museum, which is part of the Smithsonian Institution.

“I’ve already got a mobile phone, and ‘regular’ service is an extra expense.” (1) If the power goes out your smart phone i s going to be hard to recharge; (2) depending on your plan, using a landline for outbound calls from home can actually reduce your mobile bill.

One last point – of the many elegant features of telephone design, it’s worth noting two which make them exceptionally “green” devices. First, the older (and recent, but better-made) telephones use so little power that they can be powered from the central office. They use much more power, in fact, to ring the bell than to carry two-way voice conversations. Second, telephones designed in the 1950’s with a planned lifespan of 25 years are still in service. How many electrical or electronic devices do you own that have worked for that long and not ended up in a landfill? And when they do break, telephone enthusiasts both amateur and professional often scavenge the parts or fix broken parts, further extending their life. I have on my desk a green model 2500 ITT desk telephone which is nearly as old as I am, much older than my children both recently graduated from college with all sorts of honors, thank you very much – not that either has a POTS line. But if the test of good advice were whether one’s own children took it, we’d be living in an entirely different society.

So – in the hopes that we’ve persuaded you that this small purchase will reduce the risk of your being incommunicado in an emergency, and might also save you some money and reduce your carbon footprint – we will, in sort order, tell you about some individual phones and source.

My green desk phone, BTW, came from the excellent Jonathan Finder of OldPhones.com

President Obama – Report Card

Tweet To Say “I hope he fails” about the President is to advocate treason. To question the wisdom in his decisions is citizenship. This post outlines 10 things we think Obama has done right, and three things we think Obama has not done right, at least not yet. We hope Obama’s presidency is successful and effective, if for no other reason than when the President is successful and effective then the nation will be strong and prosperous.

(As noted previously, Popular Logistics is a POLICY blog, not a POLITICS blog. But, to make Policy, you must be effective at Politics.)

Obama Presidency – First Term – What he’s done right.

At his inauguration, Obama corrected Chief Justice John Roberts of the Supreme Court on the text of the Oath of Office.
Obama delivered incremental changes to health insurance. These are steps in the right direction, however, our lack of a single payer system puts the United States at a competitive disadvantage compared to Canada, Denmark, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, and basically all other industrialized countries.
Obama took steps to allow gay people to serve alongside straight people in defense of our country, which I view as a Second Amendment right.
Obama rescued GM, Chrysler, AIG and Wall Street, which was and remains good for the economy.
Obama took steps to more strongly regulate banks and financial institutions.
Immediately after the Deepwater Horizon disaster, Obama ordered a moratorium on deep water drilling for oil.
FEMA today is arguably more professional and more competent under Obama’s watch than it was under his predecessor.
Obama ordered the CIA to find bin Laden, which it did. Subsequently ordered a “Capture or Kill” mission against bin Laden; which was flawlessly executed and, it was reported, gathered a treasure trove of actionable intelligence against Al Queda.
Obama ordered US armed forces to help the Libyan rebels remove Gadaffi from power. People on the far left appear to believe that we have invaded Libya for oil. People on the far right appear to believe that we should have. I think Obama took a reasonable approach: to provide cover and support to a legitimate insurgency.
Obama extended tax incentives for residential and commercial solar energy, which have since lapsed.

What Obama has not done right.

Obama did not develop public works programs to shift the energy paradigm away from fuel based technologies such as coal, oil, methane, and nuclear power, to one based on solar, wind, geothermal, wave, and other clean, renewable, sustainable energy systems and efficiency. As Amory Lovins said, “The cheapest unit of energy is the one you don’t have to pay for, the Negawatt.” The next cheapest unit of energy is the one which consumes no fuel, which might be called the “Negafuel power.” And as Franklin D. Roosevelt and John Maynard Keynes proved, during economic times such as these, when private sector employers are able but unwilling to risk capital to hire, the only employer able and willing to hire is the government.
Obama did not create a single-payer health care system, or extend Medicare to cover every American.
Obama did not end what he has previously described as the “Paris Hilton Tax Breaks.” Altho it is Congress’ responsibility, he is not demanding Congress raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans.

Treason versus Wisdom

It’s one thing to question the President’s judgment, wisdom, intelligence, capabilities and character. We should do that, not just for this president, or his predecessor, but for each president and every viable candidate for every elected office. That is our right as citizens of the United States, and it is a right not granted to “citizens” of Iran, N. Korea, or China, or subjects to the King of Saudi Arabia. More than our right, it is our obligation.

Further, it is one thing to say “I am concerned that the President has made a decision that will have disastrous consequences… I am concerned that the President will fail.” Because when the President fails the country suffers; we the citizens – and our children – suffer. But saying “I hope he [the President] fails” is the same as saying “I hope the country fails.” (Not because the President is King – he isn’t – but because the President is, by the power vested in the President by the Constitution, the Chief Executive of the Federal Government and the Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces.) This, “I hope he fails” is to advocate treason. People who say that should be recognized for what they are.

In Jersey Three Strikes Equals a Home Run

Tweet

Strike 1 – Solar Power

When the NJ Clean Energy Program started in 2001, there were six (6) solar energy systems and a nameplate capacity of nine (9) kilowatts. By December 31, 2010 there were over 7000 systems with a combined capacity close to 300 megawatts, MW, of solar electric generating capacity. In the first six months of 2011, another 100 MW was added, bringing the total to 400 MW by June 30, 2011. By these metrics, the NJ Clean Energy Program has been successful.

Continue reading →

Hal Needham on Fresh Air

Fresh Air interviews Hal Needham, screenwriter, director, send-unit director, stunt arranger, stun performer, and pioneer of high-speed automobiles, specifically rocket-powered automobiles. Needham was also a paratrooper during the Korean War, but we haven’t been able to determine with which division he served.

Why do we mention Hal Needham, apart from the intrinsic interest in such a cool guy, whose interview with Terry Gross is well worth the time? He’s relevant because he’s spent a career – perhaps several careers, learning new things, and carefully judging risk. As regular readers have no doubt divined, we’re keenly interested in both of those things: learning in general and learning about risk.

Happy Labor Day.

First Solar-Powered Satellite: Vanguard I, 1958

Image courtesy of NASA

The Vanguard I satellite was and is remarkable in a number of ways: it’s the fifth publicly known launched satellite, the first to use solar power, and, as of this writing, the longest-lasting artificial satellite, at 53 years and counting.

NASA diagram, courtesy of Wikipedia Commons

Six solar cells powered a 5-milliwatt transmitter (a second transmitter was powered by a battery). The solar powered transmitter lasted for six years.
This post is part of an occasional series through which we hope to investigate the progress and promise of solar power. And its limitations. So we’re looking for data points, landmarks, so we can plot the vector of solar power over time. One of our first posts on Solar, “Staten Island Ferry – Sailing to the Future,” posted here, March 8, 2007, noted the 40 KW array on the Staten Island Ferry Terminal, at the base of Whitehall Street in New York City.

Promise and Progress of Solar Power

First Solar Powered Satellite, the Vanguard 1, 1958, posted here, September 3, 2011.
In Jersey Three Strikes Equals a Home Run, posted here, September 7, 2011.

"US court case reveals CIA rendition details" – BBC

The BBC reports that litigation between a charter company and an aviation company involving a fee dispute has led to new details of rendition flights. US court case reveals CIA rendition details summarizes the new details and previous disclosures from other sources, including leaked documents and reports from human rights organizations.

Some of the details noted by the BBC:

Airport invoices and other commercial records provide a paper trail for the movements of some terrorism suspects allegedly held in secret CIA prisons, along with government operatives who flew to the scenes of their detention.

The records include flight itineraries coordinated with the arrest of accused 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheik Mohammed and the suspected transport of other detainees.

The private jets were given US state department transit letters providing diplomatic cover for their flights.

The private business jets sometimes landed several times during a single mission, and in at least one case cost the US government as much as $300,000 for one flight.

The crew of one of the jets involved made expenses claims for items such as $20 sandwiches and $40 wine bottles, court documents published by the Guardian show.

There’s more in this excellent piece; we haven’t yet seen any coverage in other English-language outlets, but hope to. Any readers having seen other relevant reports are encouraged to share them in comments.

Nuclear Power, Natural Disasters, and Security

Tweet Nuclear power diminishes National Security and the stability of the electric grid.

Consider the Brunswick, Fort Calhoun, Millstone, North Anna, and Oyster Creek nuclear power plants, and the Fukushima melt-downs. And consider the “Mobley Factor.”

The Brunswick nuclear plants in North Carolina, and the Millstone nuclear power plants in Connecticut were brought to “reduced power” in preparation for Hurricane Irene. The Oyster Creek plant in New Jersey was shut down. The North Anna nuclear plant, about 90 miles from Richmond, Virginia, was shut down Because of the earthquake that hit the east coast of the United States on Tuesday, August, 23, 2011( Popular Logistics coverage here). The Fort Calhoun, Nebraska, nuclear plant, pictured above, near Omaha, Nebraska, shut down in May, 2011, for refueling, remains shut down (losing $1.0 million per day) due to the flooding of the Missouri River that began June 6, 2011. (Popular Logistics coverage here and here, photos are here).

In an emergency we know that nuclear plants will be shut down, and therefore not generating power. However, they will require emergency power and emergency response resources.

“The Mobley Factor” refers to Sharif Mobley, an American currently in prison in Yemen, suspected of ties to Al Queda. Before going to Yemen, Mr. Mobley worked as a laborer in six nuclear power plants in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Maryland, including the Salem and Hope Creek plants in New Jersey, the Peach Bottom, Limerick and Three Mile Island plants in Pennsylvania, and the Calvert Cliffs plant in Maryland. Mr. Mobley had unrestricted access to those plants. Equipped with a cell phone he could have taken pictures, lots of pictures, also known as “Actionable Intelligence.”

Bloomberg News reported (here) “Federal regulations require nuclear reactors to be in a ‘safe shutdown condition,’ cooled to less than 300 degrees Fahrenheit, two hours before hurricane-force winds strike.” Paradoxical, but nuclear power plants – a source of power – depend on fossil fuel.

The Bloomberg News article continues, “Plant operators typically begin shutting down reactors 12 hours before winds exceeding 74 miles per hour are predicted to arrive, said Roger Hannah, a spokesman with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s Region II office in Atlanta.”

Reuters (here) reported that the operators are working to bring online the various nuclear power plants shut down due to the hurricane and the earthquake.

STATE         OWNER      PLANT          STATUS   RESTART      CAPACITY MW
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Connecticut   Dominion   Millstone 2    REDUCED  UNKNOWN         884
Connecticut   Dominion   Millstone 3    REDUCED  UNKNOWN       1,227
New Jersey    Exelon     Oyster Creek   OFFLINE  UNKNOWN         619
N. Carolina   Progress   Brunswick 1    REDUCED  24-36 Hours     938
N. Carolina   Progress   Brunswick 1    REDUCED  24-36 Hours     937
Virginia      Dominion   North Anna 1   OFFLINE  UNKNOWN         980.5
Virginia      Dominion   North Anna 2   OFFLINE  UNKNOWN         972.9
Nebraska                 Fort Calhoun   OFFLINE  UNKNOWN         484
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

BBC News – After the sludge: Rebuilding Hungary's towns

After the sludge: Rebuilding Hungary’s towns

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-14575564

By Nick Thorpe BBC News, Hungary

Last October a toxic waste spill from an aluminium factory swallowed homes in Western Hungary in what was the country’s worst environmental disaster. Nick Thorpe visited the town for One Planet from the BBC World Service to see what had become of its residents.

There is nothing to photograph beyond the stream in Kolontar anymore, just weeds and puddles and a track down the middle that turns right, then peters out on a piece of wasteground beside a ditch. It is astonishing how short a road appears when all the houses are gone. All that is left of Kossuth Street and Mill Street.

Erzsebet and Zoltan Juhasz walk down this way sometimes, to see where their home used to be. They even found a tomato plant, growing among the tall weeds where their garden was.

“I dug it up and replanted it in my new garden and now it’s full of fruit!” Erzsebet explains.

“It is the only light moment in a conversation about a subject which is still usually too painful to talk about – the moment when her 14-month-old daughter, Angyalka, was swept from her arms when a tidal wave of red sludge hit their house on 4 October last year.

As we speak in her new kitchen, another little girl, Dori, runs in, laughing hilariously, three years old, wanting to play. Seven-year-old Gergo comes in to listen solemnly to the grown-ups

His father asks him to go out again – both he and Erzsebet are crying – as they tell their story. But the boy stays, and Dori plays, and outside 13-year-old Renata stands by the slide. And Erzsebet is expecting a new baby, a boy, in November.

“We’ve very grateful for all the help we received, from the Red Cross, from the Baptist charity, from the state too, for giving us this house. I mean, they didn’t have to, did they? They could have waited for the aluminium company to pay up.”

Instead, the missing half of Kolontar has been rebuilt in record time, 21 brand new houses on the highest ground in the village.

Promise kept

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban promised when he came here to oversee the evacuation of the village on 9 October that everyone would be fully compensated, everyone would get new homes or the cash equivalent.

And to everyone’s surprise, the promise has been fulfilled, the houses are white and gleaming, each one slightly different, the woodwork is varnished, children are playing in the gardens again, and in the distance, Somlo Hill, Hungary’s table mountain, stands firm as a rock, rising out of the summer haze.

“I wouldn’t have wanted to move out of sight of that,” laughs Endre Csipszer, jabbing his finger at the horizon. We are standing in Devecser now, further down the valley from Kolontar.

Here there is a bigger housing estate, 87 new houses, each with flowers in the window, and workmen carrying new sofas and beds and kitchen furniture in through the door. “Look at all this… some even call it the golden sludge now.”

“We never dreamed of living in a new house, one like this,” says his partner Tereza, showing us from room to room. A few pieces of furniture they managed to salvage from the old house stand in one room. Otherwise, everything is new.

By the ruins of the post office in Devecser, we meet Tamas Toldi, the mayor. The post office is one of the last of nearly 300 buildings to be knocked down in his town, their walls and foundations fatally weakened by the caustic, alkaline waters of the disaster.

“This area in front of us will be turned into a beautiful memorial park,” says the mayor.

“There’ll be lots of park benches, playgrounds, fishermen fishing in the little ponds there. Behind that there’ll be a sportsground with a football pitch. And beyond that, a new light industrial park where we hope to develop renewable energy and create jobs for the town.”

Renewable energy, he stresses. “People here have had enough environmental destruction. It’s very important for them that any jobs created here are not at the cost of more damage to the environment.”

Compensation battle

In the fields between Kolontar and Devecser, the government commissioner for the agricultural rehabilitation of the area, Csaba Szabo, proudly shows us the maize crop, tall and dark green, growing in the middle of a valley at the centre of the path of the red mud.

“We had originally planned for the corn to be burnt as biomass, but the analyses show that it is safe to eat.”

So it will be fed as fodder to the cattle, after all. Nearby, there is a plantation of fast-growing poplars, in an area just before Devecser where the red mud once stood deepest.

Here, all the top soil was removed and replaced, and the poplars will be harvested in just two years’ time, as an energy crop.

People speak of the remarkable regenerative power of nature, and of the unexpected speed and generosity of the state, in a clean-up and rebuilding operation that has cost over $150m (£90.5m) so far, and still continues. But the government remains determined to get that money back from MAL Zrt, the aluminium company.

“For the company to be able to pay compensation to all the victims of this disaster, it is in our interest for them to continue production, to continue generating an income,” says Gyorgy Bakondy, the head of the Hungarian disaster management authority, who supervised the company until last month.

He also oversaw a switch from wet, red-sludge producing technology, to dry disposal of the waste.

Caught in a pincer movement of criminal claims, civil claims and the prospect of a massive fine for destroying the environment, the company is involved in discussions behind closed doors with the government.

So might there be an out-of-court settlement? I ask Zoltan Illes, secretary of state for the environment.

“There might be, easily,” he replies.

And if there is, that is likely to happen soon – before the first anniversary of the disaster.

via BBC News – After the sludge: Rebuilding Hungary’s towns.

See also, from the BBC:

Hungary country profile 16 FEBRUARY 2011, COUNTRY PROFILES
‘New risk’ at Hungary sludge site 08 FEBRUARY 2011, EUROPE
Inquiry into Hungary sludge spill 06 OCTOBER 2010, EUROPE

BBC News – Nigeria blast eyewitness: 'I almost cried'

26 August 2011 Last updated at 10:14 ET Help

A car bomb attack has struck the UN building in the Nigerian capital Abuja, killing at least 16 people.

The powerful blast wrecked the bottom floor of the building.

A witness, named only as Raphael, spoke of his fear and anguish at the scenes he was confronted with.

via BBC News – Nigeria blast eyewitness: ‘I almost cried’.

BBC News – Iran embassy SAS commander John McAleese dies

Ex-SAS soldier John McAleese, who led the raid that ended the 1980 siege at Iran’s embassy in London, has died.

Mr McAleese, who was in his early 60s, died on Friday in Thessaloniki, Greece, the Foreign Office said.

The former sergeant led the team which blew out the building’s windows and rescued 24 hostages from gunmen.

His daughter said he had been reunited with his son, a soldier killed in Afghanistan. “Two great heroes taking their place in heaven,” she said.

A Ministry of Defence spokesman said: “We are aware of the death of John McAleese, a hero who served his country bravely and professionally in a military career that spanned many years.

“Our thoughts are with his family and friends at this time.”

Millions of television viewers watched Mr McAleese and his team, dressed in black, storm the embassy on 5 May 1980 to end the six-day siege within 15 minutes of entering.

Six Iranian separatists took over the embassy and demanded the release of 91 political prisoners held in Iran as well as an aircraft to take them and 26 hostages out of the UK.

Then Home Secretary William Whitelaw ordered the SAS attack after the gunmen shot dead Iranian press attaché Abbas Lavasani and dumped his body outside the building.

During the SAS operation, five of the gunmen and one of the remaining hostages were killed.

BBC presenter

Hayley, 28, said her father – who went on to present the BBC programme SAS: Are You Tough Enough? – never got over the death of his son Serjeant Paul McAleese, 29, who was killed by a roadside bomb in Afghanistan in 2009 as he went to help a fatally injured colleague.

via BBC News – Iran embassy SAS commander John McAleese dies.

How Deficits In Planning Lead, Inevitably To Deficits

Photo courtesy of Liz Roll of FEMA, the FEMA Photo Library.

Tweet In New Orleans, during Katrina – or rather prior to Katrina – school buses weren’t accounted for in planning, either as a resource to be protected, or as a tool to be used in evacuation. The result: insufficient resources for evacuation, and flood-damaged school buses requiring repair or replacement – and taxpayer funds.

Latest Updates on Hurricane Irene – NYTimes.com

Latest Updates on Hurricane Irene

By ROBERT MACKEY

On Friday, The Lede is tracking preparations for the expected landfall of Hurricane Irene, a powerful storm heading for the Northeastern United States.

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5:46 P.M. |Even if Storm Weakens, Flooding Could Be a Problem

Jeff Masters, a founder of the Weather Underground Web site who studied storms from the air for four years with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Hurricane Hunters, is tracking Irene’s progress in great detail on his WunderBlog.

In his most recent post, Dr. Masters reports: "Satellite data and measurements from the Hurricane Hunters show that Irene is weakening." He explains that an Air Force flight over the storm this morning "found that Irene’s eyewall had collapsed," this morning. He adds: "The winds measured in Irene near the surface support classifying it as a strong Category 1 hurricane or weak Category 2."

Based on the latest data, Dr. Masters produced a good news/bad news forecast: predicting that the storm could cause dramatic flooding even if it weakens to a Category 1 hurricane as it moves north. He explains:

With its eyewall collapsed and just 18 more hours over water before landfall, Irene does not have time to build a new eyewall and intensify. The storm is too large to weaken quickly, and the best forecast is that Irene will be a strong Category 1 hurricane at landfall in North Carolina on Saturday.

Based on the latest wind analysis from NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division and Irene’s continued weakening trend, I predict that the 80-mile section of North Carolina coast to the right of where Irene makes landfall will receive sustained hurricane-force winds of 75-85 m.p.h. on Saturday at landfall; the 80-mile section of coast to the left will receive 55-75 m.p.h. winds. High wind shear of 30 knots will begin ripping into Irene Sunday morning when it is near Southern New Jersey, and more rapid weakening will occur.

By the time Irene arrives on Long Island Sunday afternoon, it will probably have top sustained winds in the 65-75 m.p.h. range. However, since Irene is such a huge storm — tropical storm force winds extend out up to 290 miles from the center — it has set a massive amount of the ocean’s surface in motion, which will cause a much larger storm surge than the winds would suggest. At 3:30 pm EDT this afternoon, a wind analysis from NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division indicated that the potential storm surge damage from Irene still rated a 5.0 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is equivalent to the storm surge a typical Category 4 hurricane would have.

While this damage potential should steadily decline as Irene moves northwards and weakens, we can still expect a storm surge one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than Irene’s winds when it impacts the coast. Since tides are at their highest levels of the month this weekend due to the new moon, storm surge flooding will be at a maximum during the high tidal cycles that will occur at 8 p.m. Saturday night and 8 a.m. Sunday morning. Wherever Irene happens to be at those times, the storm surge damage potential will be maximized. I continue to give a 20 percent chance that a 3-4 foot storm surge high enough to over-top the Manhattan flood walls and swamp the New York City subway system will occur on Sunday. The latest 11 a.m. probabilistic storm surge map from the National Hurricane Center shows a 20-30 percent chance of a storm surge in excess of 3 feet in New York Harbor. Keep in mind that these maps are calculated for normal tide level, and this weekend’s high tides will be nearly 1 foot above normal.

5:18 P.M. |Looking at Simulations of the Possible Storm Surge

MITA simulation of the storm surge from Hurricane Irene (using the Slosh model) shows severe flooding in New Haven and New London, Conn., (the scale is in feet) and parts of New Jersey, with extra sea height of around four feet (on top of the tide) in New York City.

In a new post on his Dot Earth blog, "New York Surge From Irene Looks Bad, But Not Off Charts," my colleague Andrew Revkin reports:

Researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology focused on coastal impacts from hurricanes have run fresh simulations of the possible storm surge as Hurricane Irene hits the New York metropolitan region. Simulations using two surge models (known by their acronyms, SLOSH and ADCIRC) found 1.22 and 1.05 meters of surge (4 and 3.44 feet) of surge at the Battery, at the southern tip of Manhattan.

This would pose serious risks to low installations and the subways but is nowhere near a worst case (think 13 feet, as in 1821)….

The surge model also does not include waves* and the extra tide expected because it’s a new moon. They’re in the process of running a simulation with that factor included.

In an update to the post, he adds:

The Storm Surge Research Group at the State University of New York, Stony Brook, has a great online tool that provides an advance estimate of storm surge at important spots around New York City and Long Island Sound. Click on a buoy to see the current state of sea level and what’s anticipated over the next 24 hours (the models are run twice a day). The group emphasizes that this is a work in progress and should not be used to make evacuation decisions or the like.

via Latest Updates on Hurricane Irene – NYTimes.com.