Author Archives: L J Furman, MBA

About L J Furman, MBA

Analyst here and Director of Information Technology with an MBA in Managing for Sustainability.

In RE Carbon Dioxide – The EPA is Listening

Hurricane Sandy, NOAA handout satellite image taken on October 27, 2012.

Hurricane Sandy, via satellite, 10/27/12, NOAA

The people at the Environmental Protection Agency understand the issue of increasing atmospheric Carbon Dioxide above 350 PPM. And EPA is listening. EPA has held two public comment periods in New York City on 10/23/13 and will hold nine additional public comment hearings across the country to “solicit ideas and input from the public and stakeholders about the best Clean Air Act approaches to reducing carbon pollution from existing power plants.”

Boston, MA 11/04/13 Philadelphia, PA 11/08/13
Chicago, IL 11/08/13 San Francisco, CA 11/05/13
Dallas, TX 11/07/13 Seattle, WA 11/07/13
Denver, CO 10/30/13 Washington, DC 11/07/13
Lenexa, KS 11/04/13

 

Click HERE to register.

And as President Theodore Roosevelt said, “Speak softly …”

Continue reading →

Sustainable Investing: Green Energy, Green Economy

PLEP_13.10.18

On Dec. 21, 2012, with $16 Imaginary Million, I created an investment simulation. I invested $1.0 Million in imaginary money in each of eight fossil fuel companies and eight sustainable energy companies. As of the close of trading 10 months later, Friday, Oct. 18, 2013, the trend, clearly evident after three months, in March of this year, continues.

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 17.64% from 12/21/12.
  • The S&P 500 is up 22.03%.
  • The Fossil Fuel Portfolio, dramatically underperforming the reference indices, is up 7.47%.
  • The Popular Logistics Sustainable Energy portfolio is up 156.14%.

As discussed last month, in “Investing for the Future,” the important question is:  Is this a trend or a bubble?  As I wrote, I think it’s a trend.

Jeremy Grantham, the “G” in GMO, invests with the expectation that all things being equal, a company’s valuation tends toward their arithmetic mean values. (Note that Mr. Grantham has not been contacted for this study.) But note that disruptive technologies are, by definition, game changers. Disruptive tech alters the landscape. If you looked at the airline, automobile and railroad industries over the 20th Century, automobiles and airlines waxed while railroads waned.

The future may be similar for Fossil Fuels and Sustainable Energy. The Market Capitalization of the Fossil Fuel portfolio is $1.13 Trillion. The Market Capitalization of the Sustainable Energy Portfolio is $0.06 Trillion ($60 Billion).  The value of the companies of the Sustainable Energy portfolio is roughly 5.3% of the market capitalization of the companies of the Fossil Fuel portfolio. It can almost be described as a rounding error compared to the value of the Fossil Fuel portfolio. But if Mr. Grantham’s analysis is valid, and you aggregate the portfolios into one called “Energy” as opposed to a “Fossil Fuel” portfolio and a “Sustainable Energy” portfolio, then the shareholders of these various companies are in for an interesting few years.

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Real Shutdown Increases Real Unemployment by 800,000 Real Americans. Unofficially: Unemployment Rate Now 7.82%. Actually: 1.8 Million Unemployed by Shutdown; Rate of 8.48%

Pres. Obama & Speaker Boehner

Old Picture of President Obama & Speaker Boehner

The NY Times Editorial Board describes the shutdown, here, as “John Boehner’s Leadership Failure.” USA Today wrote, here,

“This shutdown, the first in 17 years, isn’t the result of two parties acting equally irresponsibly. It is the product of an increasingly radicalized Republican Party, controlled by a disaffected base that demands legislative hostage-taking in an effort to get what it has not been able to attain by the usual means: winning elections.”

On Saturday Night Live, Saturday, 10/5/13, Miley Cyrus and the cast mock-umented the GOP celebration over the shutdown with “We Can Stop (The Government).”

But Art and Politics aside, what are the effects of the Shutdown on the Economy?

The Government Shutdown increased Unemployment by 1.8 million, the Unemployment Rate increased 16.2%,  from 7.31% on August 31, 2013 to 8.48% on October 2, 2013.  At the same time, GDP growth dropped 20%, from 2.5% to 2.0%. 

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Government Shutdown – Partial – OK, But What’s Next? Default?

Paul Krugman, PhD

Paul Krugman, PhD, Nobel Laureate

The House Republicans, led (or maybe followed) by John Boehner, R, Ohio, are ready to shut down the government in order to force President Obama to delay implementation of various components of the Affordable Care Act, aka “Obamacare.”

They are not shutting down the entire government. The government will halt so-called “non-essential services.” The EPA, FDA, IRS help desk will be furloughed. This is precisely what Grover Norquist, Charles and David Koch and other big Republican donors want. It’s what they mean by “Starve the Beast.” Oddly enough the shutdown does not include Congress, which will remain in session, so our Representatives in the House and the Senate can continue to work, or at least draw paychecks. Continue reading →

Energy Portfolios – Investing for the Future

As of the close of trading Friday, Sept. 20, 2013, the trend, clearly evident by February 9, 2012 continues.

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 14.66% from 12/21/12.
  • The S&P 500 is up 16.36%.
  • The Fossil Fuel Portfolio, significantly underperforming the reference indices, is up 5.95%.
  • The Popular Logistics Sustainable Energy portfolio is up 110.10%.

PopLog.Port.13.09The important question is:  Is this a trend or a bubble?

I think it’s a trend. While I want to think it’s a trend, utility scale solar is at or below $4.00 per watt and getting cheaper.  Solar also scales from the 10 watts on a backpack to 10,000 watts or 10 KW on a rooftop to 500 million watts, 500 MW utilities are building. Wind is less expensive. Wind and solar are predictable. Continue reading →

Fracking Earthquakes … Fracking Causes Earthquakes

frackingmap

This map shows the intensity of shaking in the area of a magnitude-3.9 earthquake that struck near Youngstown, Ohio, on Dec. 31, 2011. Research has linked this earthquake to the underground injection of wastewater from fracking. Courtesy USGS

As reported on Live Science, here, and NBC News, here, disposal of wastewater from Hydraulic Fracturing, “Fracking,” has been linked to earthquakes in Ohio. As reported in Green, a the NY Times blog, here, fracking has also been linked to increased seismic activity in Oklahoma, altho scientists are uncertain whether the earthquakes are because of the injection of wastewater underground or the extraction of oil and methane via fracking.

This makes perfect sense. Fracking is, after all, injecting explosives under tremendous pressure into underground rock formations, then exploding the rock formations. To expect that not to have other effects – such as earthquakes – would be naive.

Continue reading →

Jersey Shore 350.org:Tues. 9/3/13, Stay Gold Cafe, Belmar, NJ, 6:00 PM

Jersey Shore Damage from Hurricane Sandy. U.S. Air Force photo by Master Sgt. Mark C. Olsen

Jersey Shore Damage from Hurricane Sandy. U.S. Air Force photo by Master Sgt. Mark C. Olsen

Approximately 97% of climate scientists agree that climate-warming trends over the past century are very likely due to human activities, which have increased atmospheric CO2 from roughly 265 parts per million, PPM, in 1800 to 400 PPM today. Many of these scientists and climate experts agree we must reduce the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere from current levels to below 350 PPM.

Along with climate-warming comes extreme weather, and events like Hurricane Irene, 2011, Hurricane Sandy, 2012. 350 Jersey Shore aims to inform New Jersey residents of our climate challenges, and provide solutions to help reduce carbon emissions locally and beyond.

Organized by Stephen Fowler of Echo Movement, 350 Jersey Shore, an arm of 350.0rg is meeting on Tuesday, Sept. 3, 2013 at 6:00 PM at the Stay Gold Cafe, Belmar, NJ. ( Event Link )

Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios – an Exercise in Climate Capitalism

Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios

In December, 2012 I created two portfolios, a “Sustainable Energy” portfolio comprised of Cree, First Solar, GT Advanced Technology, Lighting Sciences, Next Era Energy, Sunpower Solar, Solazyme and Vestas, 8 stocks in the solar, LED lighting, wind and biofuel sectors, and a “Fossil Fuel” portfolio, comprised of BP, Chevron Texaco, Conoco Philips, Exxon Mobil, RD Shell, Haliburton, Transocean, and Peabody Coal, 8 stocks in the coal, oil, and fracking sectors. The results, after eight months, as illustrated above:

The Sustainable Energy portfolio, is now up 96.55%
The Reference Fossil Fuel portfolio is up 3.78%
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 14.66%
The S&P 500 is up 16.36%.

In a trend clearly evident in February, the Sustainable Energy portfolio has significantly outperformed the Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P 500, and the Fossil Fuel portfolio, which has significantly underperformed the indices.

These data are summarized in table 1 and below.

Summary Data
Portfolio 12/21/12 08/21/13 Delta %
Sustainable Energy $8,000,000 $15,724,266 $7,724,266 96.55%
Fossil Fuel $8,000,000 $8,302,069 $302,069 3.78%
DJI 13,091 15,010 1,919 14.66%
S&P 500 1,430 1,664 234 16.36%
Table 1

The details are below the fold.

Continue reading →

Fukushima. Steam Rising from Sarcophagus

Fukushima Steam   
Rising from Sarcophagus
Rad-Waste flows to clouds

Rad-waste flows thru EAARTH
Carried on the  Jet Stream’s winds
any-every-where

NYTimes … ABC … BBC … Guardian, UK

With Nuclear power,
an accident anywhere is an accident everywhere.”

If the cheapest unit of energy is
the one that we don’t need, the “Nega-Watt,” then

the next cheapest is the one that
doesn’t need fuel and doesn’t create waste.
The “Nega-Fuel-Watt / Nega-Waste-Watt.”

Nuclear Power – State of the Art in 2013

The Fires of Fukushima

The Fires of Fukushima

Back in the 1960’s Nuclear Power was pitched as “Too Cheap to Meter.” Today  the state of the art can be summarized in 15 words:

Chernobyl, Fukushima, San Onofre, Fort Calhoun, Indian Point, Radioactive Waste, Evacuation Plans and Emergency Response. Continue reading →

Fort Calhoun Nuclear Power Station: Offline Since April, 2011, Two Years Four Months, and Counting

Fort Calhoun Nuclear Station

Fort Calhoun Nuclear Station

Two Years Ago, April, 2011, the Fort Calhoun nuclear power station, on the banks of the Missouri River, north of Omaha, Nebraska, was shut down for refueling. It should have been a routine operation. According to the Nuclear Energy Institute, NEI.Org, here, “U.S. nuclear reactors shut down once every 18 to 24 months to refuel approximately one-third of the reactor. In the 1980s and early ’90s the average refueling outage lasted about three months. Over the past decade, refueling outage durations have improved substantially. Now a typical refueling outage lasts one month.” Clearly Fort Calhoun, shut down for refueling 28 months ago in April, 2011, is not typical. Continue reading →

Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios. Sustainable Energy Doubles. Fossil Fuels increase by 5.4%

PLEP_13.7.22

In December, 2012 I created two portfolios, a “Sustainable Energy” portfolio comprised of 8 stocks in the solar, LED lighting, wind and biofuel sectors, and a “Fossil Fuel” portfolio, comprised of 8 stocks in the coal, oil, and fracking sectors. The results, after seven months, as illustrated above:

The Sustainable Energy portfolio more than doubled: it is up 101.77%
The Reference Fossil Fuel portfolio is up 5.4%
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 18.75%
The S&P 500 is up 18.6%.

The Sustainable Energy portfolio has significantly outperformed the Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P 500 and the Fossil Fuel portfolio.

These data are summarized in table 1 and below. Continue reading →

 

Frank Pallone, D. NJ

Frank Pallone, D. NJ

Sea Bright, New Jersey, July 11, 2013. I joined Cindy Zipf of Clean Ocean Action, (fact sheet)  U.S, Rep Frank Pallone, campaign, and many citizens, including two children, one about 6, the other about 9. We spoke with eloquence, passion, and wisdom of the need to protect the shore, the biosphere, the bio-human-sphere.

“We need to build a clean and sustainable energy infrastructure,” I concluded, “one based on solar, wind, wave, geothermal and sustainable biofuels; an infrastructure for the future.  These distributed systems can be designed to withstand natural disasters, human error and terrorist attack. Our future is at stake, and our children’s future.”

I spoke for about 3 minutes, cutting my prepared remarks about in half.

This is not a partisan issue. Rep Pallone and I are Democrats. Governor Christie is a Republican. The Governor wisely vetoed an identical project in 2011 has promised to veto new deepwater LNG transfer ports.  Senator Buono and environmental / citizens groups should hold the governor to his promises. This is a disaster waiting to happen.

We need to look to the rooftops for solar, the oceans for wind and wave power, to geothermal differentials for heat and electricity, to build an infrastructure for the 21st Century.

Fracking – As Clean As Chlorine & Benzene

Benzene Ring Currents, Quantum chemically calculated magnetically induced probability current density vectors in benzene. The magnetic field is pointing out of the molecular plane upwards. Displayed are vectors with modulus between 0.01 and 0.1 nA/T. Left subfigure is in the molecular plane, right subfigure is 1.0 a.u. above the molecular plane. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Benzene_ring_currents.png

Quantum chemically calculated magnetically induced probability current density vectors in benzene. Wikimedia Commons

As noted in my post March 24, here, the petrochemical industry says,

“Trust us. The Fracking fluids are water mixed with sand, a few other chemicals, and 5% is household chemicals, like chlorine and benzine.”

The thing is, chlorine and benzene are hazardous.  So when the people in the petrochemical industry imply, “This is safe,” because it is household chemicals, I don’t know what they mean. And as documented elsewhere in the series, here, pollution from Fracking is not regulated at the Federal level.

Continue reading →