Category Archives: Connecting the Dots

Sustainable Investing: Green Energy, Green Economy

PLEP_13.10.18

On Dec. 21, 2012, with $16 Imaginary Million, I created an investment simulation. I invested $1.0 Million in imaginary money in each of eight fossil fuel companies and eight sustainable energy companies. As of the close of trading 10 months later, Friday, Oct. 18, 2013, the trend, clearly evident after three months, in March of this year, continues.

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 17.64% from 12/21/12.
  • The S&P 500 is up 22.03%.
  • The Fossil Fuel Portfolio, dramatically underperforming the reference indices, is up 7.47%.
  • The Popular Logistics Sustainable Energy portfolio is up 156.14%.

As discussed last month, in “Investing for the Future,” the important question is:  Is this a trend or a bubble?  As I wrote, I think it’s a trend.

Jeremy Grantham, the “G” in GMO, invests with the expectation that all things being equal, a company’s valuation tends toward their arithmetic mean values. (Note that Mr. Grantham has not been contacted for this study.) But note that disruptive technologies are, by definition, game changers. Disruptive tech alters the landscape. If you looked at the airline, automobile and railroad industries over the 20th Century, automobiles and airlines waxed while railroads waned.

The future may be similar for Fossil Fuels and Sustainable Energy. The Market Capitalization of the Fossil Fuel portfolio is $1.13 Trillion. The Market Capitalization of the Sustainable Energy Portfolio is $0.06 Trillion ($60 Billion).  The value of the companies of the Sustainable Energy portfolio is roughly 5.3% of the market capitalization of the companies of the Fossil Fuel portfolio. It can almost be described as a rounding error compared to the value of the Fossil Fuel portfolio. But if Mr. Grantham’s analysis is valid, and you aggregate the portfolios into one called “Energy” as opposed to a “Fossil Fuel” portfolio and a “Sustainable Energy” portfolio, then the shareholders of these various companies are in for an interesting few years.

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Real Shutdown Increases Real Unemployment by 800,000 Real Americans. Unofficially: Unemployment Rate Now 7.82%. Actually: 1.8 Million Unemployed by Shutdown; Rate of 8.48%

Pres. Obama & Speaker Boehner

Old Picture of President Obama & Speaker Boehner

The NY Times Editorial Board describes the shutdown, here, as “John Boehner’s Leadership Failure.” USA Today wrote, here,

“This shutdown, the first in 17 years, isn’t the result of two parties acting equally irresponsibly. It is the product of an increasingly radicalized Republican Party, controlled by a disaffected base that demands legislative hostage-taking in an effort to get what it has not been able to attain by the usual means: winning elections.”

On Saturday Night Live, Saturday, 10/5/13, Miley Cyrus and the cast mock-umented the GOP celebration over the shutdown with “We Can Stop (The Government).”

But Art and Politics aside, what are the effects of the Shutdown on the Economy?

The Government Shutdown increased Unemployment by 1.8 million, the Unemployment Rate increased 16.2%,  from 7.31% on August 31, 2013 to 8.48% on October 2, 2013.  At the same time, GDP growth dropped 20%, from 2.5% to 2.0%. 

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Energy Portfolios – Investing for the Future

As of the close of trading Friday, Sept. 20, 2013, the trend, clearly evident by February 9, 2012 continues.

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 14.66% from 12/21/12.
  • The S&P 500 is up 16.36%.
  • The Fossil Fuel Portfolio, significantly underperforming the reference indices, is up 5.95%.
  • The Popular Logistics Sustainable Energy portfolio is up 110.10%.

PopLog.Port.13.09The important question is:  Is this a trend or a bubble?

I think it’s a trend. While I want to think it’s a trend, utility scale solar is at or below $4.00 per watt and getting cheaper.  Solar also scales from the 10 watts on a backpack to 10,000 watts or 10 KW on a rooftop to 500 million watts, 500 MW utilities are building. Wind is less expensive. Wind and solar are predictable. Continue reading →

Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios – an Exercise in Climate Capitalism

Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios

In December, 2012 I created two portfolios, a “Sustainable Energy” portfolio comprised of Cree, First Solar, GT Advanced Technology, Lighting Sciences, Next Era Energy, Sunpower Solar, Solazyme and Vestas, 8 stocks in the solar, LED lighting, wind and biofuel sectors, and a “Fossil Fuel” portfolio, comprised of BP, Chevron Texaco, Conoco Philips, Exxon Mobil, RD Shell, Haliburton, Transocean, and Peabody Coal, 8 stocks in the coal, oil, and fracking sectors. The results, after eight months, as illustrated above:

The Sustainable Energy portfolio, is now up 96.55%
The Reference Fossil Fuel portfolio is up 3.78%
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 14.66%
The S&P 500 is up 16.36%.

In a trend clearly evident in February, the Sustainable Energy portfolio has significantly outperformed the Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P 500, and the Fossil Fuel portfolio, which has significantly underperformed the indices.

These data are summarized in table 1 and below.

Summary Data
Portfolio 12/21/12 08/21/13 Delta %
Sustainable Energy $8,000,000 $15,724,266 $7,724,266 96.55%
Fossil Fuel $8,000,000 $8,302,069 $302,069 3.78%
DJI 13,091 15,010 1,919 14.66%
S&P 500 1,430 1,664 234 16.36%
Table 1

The details are below the fold.

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Nuclear Power – State of the Art in 2013

The Fires of Fukushima

The Fires of Fukushima

Back in the 1960’s Nuclear Power was pitched as “Too Cheap to Meter.” Today  the state of the art can be summarized in 15 words:

Chernobyl, Fukushima, San Onofre, Fort Calhoun, Indian Point, Radioactive Waste, Evacuation Plans and Emergency Response. Continue reading →

Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios. Sustainable Energy Doubles. Fossil Fuels increase by 5.4%

PLEP_13.7.22

In December, 2012 I created two portfolios, a “Sustainable Energy” portfolio comprised of 8 stocks in the solar, LED lighting, wind and biofuel sectors, and a “Fossil Fuel” portfolio, comprised of 8 stocks in the coal, oil, and fracking sectors. The results, after seven months, as illustrated above:

The Sustainable Energy portfolio more than doubled: it is up 101.77%
The Reference Fossil Fuel portfolio is up 5.4%
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 18.75%
The S&P 500 is up 18.6%.

The Sustainable Energy portfolio has significantly outperformed the Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P 500 and the Fossil Fuel portfolio.

These data are summarized in table 1 and below. Continue reading →

 

Frank Pallone, D. NJ

Frank Pallone, D. NJ

Sea Bright, New Jersey, July 11, 2013. I joined Cindy Zipf of Clean Ocean Action, (fact sheet)  U.S, Rep Frank Pallone, campaign, and many citizens, including two children, one about 6, the other about 9. We spoke with eloquence, passion, and wisdom of the need to protect the shore, the biosphere, the bio-human-sphere.

“We need to build a clean and sustainable energy infrastructure,” I concluded, “one based on solar, wind, wave, geothermal and sustainable biofuels; an infrastructure for the future.  These distributed systems can be designed to withstand natural disasters, human error and terrorist attack. Our future is at stake, and our children’s future.”

I spoke for about 3 minutes, cutting my prepared remarks about in half.

This is not a partisan issue. Rep Pallone and I are Democrats. Governor Christie is a Republican. The Governor wisely vetoed an identical project in 2011 has promised to veto new deepwater LNG transfer ports.  Senator Buono and environmental / citizens groups should hold the governor to his promises. This is a disaster waiting to happen.

We need to look to the rooftops for solar, the oceans for wind and wave power, to geothermal differentials for heat and electricity, to build an infrastructure for the 21st Century.

China Air Pollution: The Bitter Years Return?

China Air Pollution 中国空气污染

The Bitter Years Return 的苦涩年返回

Projection of air pollution deaths in China, based on reported deaths in 2006 and 2010.

Projection of air pollution deaths in China, based on reported deaths in 2006 and 2010.

During the “Bitter Years” from 1958 to 1962, an estimated 15 to 43 million people died of starvation in China (wikipedia). Mao, who ate well during that time, did not want help from the west. Fast forward to today. It has been reported that due to air pollution, an estimated 650,000 people died in China in 2006, and another estimated 1.2 million died in 2010. Knowing these 2 data points of this dynamic system, we can plot a curve. The blue line assumes a linear curve, the red line, the exponential uptick of a sigmoid curve.  Assuming reinforcing feedback, the red curve is more likely.

The three most important questions are

  1. “How serious is the air pollution?”
  2. “What will it take before the Chinese government acts?”
  3. “What will be the delay between action and results?

The short answer to Question 1 is “Very.” If this is as serious as I think it is, the challenge for the government of the People’s Republic of China as for other governments, will be to stop polluting and clean up the pollution it has allowed to be dispersed into the bio-humano-sphere. However, this conflicts with the apparent goal of the Chinese government to be the world’s biggest producer of stuff without regard to pollution.

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Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: At 6 Months

PLEnergyPort

After Six Months,

  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio is up 61.78%
  • The Reference Fossil Fuel portfolio is DOWN 0.39%
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 16.49%
  • The S&P 500 is up 14.76%.

These data are summarized in table 1 and discussed below the fold. Continue reading →

First Responder Deaths Demand Response

Ground Zero in Ruins. Courtesy CBS News

Ground Zero in Ruins. Courtesy CBS News

Adan Gonzalez, 69, died of throat cancer in April, 2015. Mr. Gonzalez had been a photographer and a volunteer at the World Trade Center site, working for two years as a photographer documenting the event and serving other volunteers.

Mr. Gonzalez is one of 1,712 First Responders who died due to the Sept. 11 attacks, 412 who died the day of the attacks (wikipedia) and 1,300 who died from medical complications arising from their search and rescue work. Over 40% of the 4,053 people who died in or resulting from the attack, not counting soldiers killed in Afghanistan or Iraq, or who died after returning home were first responders engaged in search and rescue or cleanup operations, a humanitarian mission.

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Leave Improvisation to Actors, Comedians, and Musicians – and Develop Coherent Disaster & Risk Policies

Craig Fugate

Craig Fugate

After bombs exploded at the Boston Marathon, April 15, 2013, the FBI and the Boston Police tracked down the alleged terrorists, who in the course of their flight killed a cop at MIT, hijacked a Mercedes, fired and threw bombs at police, and tried to ram the police with the stolen car. Continue reading →

Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: The Trend Continues.

 

Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios

The trend is clear – if 4 1/2 months is enough to establish a trend – the Sustainable Energy portfolio is up 58.78% from 12/21/12 while the Fossil Fuel portfolio is only up 6.71%. The Dow is up 15.49% and the S&P 500 is up 14.24% in that same period.

Is it because Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide has reached 400 PPM? (NPR / NY Times) Is Wall Street reacting because Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, and other investment banks and hedge funds are hiring analysts from Greenpeace or people like me with MBAs in Sustainability from Marlboro, the Presidio, and the Bainbridge Institute? Continue reading →