Energy Portfolios: Minor Corrections, Overall Results In Line with the Trend

by L J Furman, MBA on November 24, 2013

in Connecting the Dots, Energy, Sustainable Energy, Sustainable Investing, Sustainable Investing, Value Investing

PlPort_2013_11On Dec. 21, 2011, with $16 Imaginary Million, I created an investment simulation. I invested $1.0 Million in imaginary money in each of eight fossil fuel companies and eight sustainable energy companies. As of the close of trading 11 months later, Friday, Nov. 22, 2013, the trend, clearly evident after three months, in March of this year, continues.

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 22.72% from 12/21/12.
  • The S&P 500 is up 26.22%.
  • The Fossil Fuel Portfolio, dramatically underperforming the reference indices, is up 13.37% from Dec. 21, 2012.
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio is up 145.37% from Dec. 21, 2012.
  • The Sustainable Energy Portfolio is also down 4.39% from October 18, 2013.

Note  that this represents a retreat of 4.39% from the high of 156.14%, in October, 2013.

As discussed in September and October, last month, in Septermber, 2013, in “Investing for the Future,” and October, in “Sustainable Investing: Green Energy, Green Economy,” the important question is:  Is this a trend or a bubble?  As I wrote, I think it’s a trend.

The 2,000 pound question, after Typhoon Haiyon, Hurricanes Sandy,  Irene and Katrina, after the fires of 2012 and 2013, the Missouri River Floods of 2011 – which knocked out the Fort Calhoun nuclear plant – the super-tornadoes of 2013 – one with a two mile wide contact point on land, which tore through Oklahoma (CNN / National Geographic / Zerohedge) is will we survive to make the transition to clean sustainable energy?

or rather:

  1. “How many of us survive to make this transition?”
  2. “What will be the carrying capacity of earth for humans?”

The data are summarized beginning in Table 1, below.

Summary Data
Portfolio 12/21/12 11/22/13 Delta %
Sustainable Energy 8,000,000 19,629,393 11,629,393 145.37%
Fossil Fuel 8,000,000 9,069,551 1,069,551 13.37%
DJI 13,091 16,065 2,974 22.72%
S&P 500 1,430 1,805 375 26.22%
Table 1

The stock price data for the Sustainable Energy portfolio are in Table 2, below.

Sustainable Energy Portfolio – Stock Prices
Item Company Symbol 12/21/12 11/22/13 Delta Delta %
1 Cree CREE 34.0 55.6 21.63 63.62%
2 First Solar FSLR 31.0 60.4 29.35 94.68%
3 GT Adv. Tech. GTAT 3.0 9.8 6.82 227.33%
4 Lighting Science LSCG 0.8 0.4 -0.38 -50.67%
5 Next Era Energy NEE 70.0 86.6 16.59 23.70%
6 Sun Power SPWR 5.4 31.0 25.52 469.98%
7 Solazyme SZYM 8.3 8.2 -0.14 -1.68%
8 Vestas VWS 6.3 27.5 21.20 335.97%
Table 2

The stock price data for the Fossil Fuel Portfolio are in Table 3, below.

Fossil Fuel Portfolio – Stock Prices
Item Company Symbol 12/21/12 11/22/13 Delta Delta %
1 BP BP 42.1 48.0 5.91 14.03%
2 Chevron Texaco CVX 109.7 124.0 14.32 13.05%
3 Conoco Philips COP 58.6 74.0 15.42 26.31%
4 Exxon Mobil XOM 87.2 95.0 7.78 8.92%
5 Royal Dutch Shell RDS.A 69.3 68.2 -1.13 -1.63%
6 Haliburton HAL 34.7 54.5 19.79 57.02%
7 Transocean RIG 45.6 52.1 6.45 14.13%
8 Peabody Coal BTU 26.4 18.5 -7.90 -29.98%
Table 3

The valuation data for the Sustainable Energy Portfolio are in Table 4, below.

Sustainable Energy Portfolio – Valuation
    Value Delta
Item Company Symbol 12/21/12 11/22/13 Delta Delta %
1 Cree CREE 1,000 55,630 54,630 5463.00%
2 First Solar FSLR 1,000 60,350 59,350 5935.00%
3 GT Adv. Tech. GTAT 1,000 9,820 8,820 882.00%
4 Lighting Science LSCG 1,000 370 -630 -63.00%
5 Next Era Energy NEE 1,000 86,590 85,590 8559.00%
6 Sun Power SPWR 1,000 30,950 29,950 2995.00%
7 Solazyme SZYM 1,000 8,200 7,200 720.00%
8 Vestas VWS 1,000 27,510 26,510 2651.00%
total 8,000 279,420 271,420 3392.75%
Note that the values are in thousands.
Table 4

The valuation data for the Fossil Fuel Portfolio are in Table 5, below.

Fossil Fuel Portfolio – Values
Value Delta
Item Company Symbol 12/21/12 11/22/13 Amount Per Cent
1 BP BP 1,000 48,030 47,030 4703.00%
2 Chevron Texaco CVX 1,000 124,030 123,030 12303.00%
3 Conoco Philips COP 1,000 74,020 73,020 7302.00%
4 Exxon Mobil XOM 1,000 95,010 94,010 9401.00%
5 Royal Dutch Shell RDS.A 1,000 68,160 67,160 6716.00%
6 Haliburton HAL 1,000 54,500 53,500 5350.00%
7 Transocean RIG 1,000 52,090 51,090 5109.00%
8 Peabody Coal BTU 1,000 18,450 17,450 1745.00%
total 8,000 534,290 526,290 6578.63%
Note that the values are in thousands.
Table 5

The market capitalization data for the Sustainable Energy Portfolio are in Table 6.

Sustainable Energy Portfolio
Market Capitalization
Item Company Market Cap (Billions)
1 Cree 8.8
2 First Solar 5.2
3 GT Adv. Tech. 1.1
4 Lighting Science 0.1
5 Next Era Energy 35.6
6 Sun Power 3.1
7 Solazyme 0.7
8 Vestas 5.8
total 60.39
Table 6

The market capitalization data for the Fossil Fuel Portfolio are in Table 7.

Fossil Fuel Portfolio
Market Capitalization
Item Company Market Cap (Billions)
1 BP 137.1
2 Chevron Texaco 231.5
3 Conoco Philips 89.3
4 Exxon Mobil 383.4
5 Royal Dutch Shell 211.8
6 Haliburton 50.7
7 Transocean 16.8
8 Peabody Coal 5.1
total 1125.7
Table 7

As noted above, stay tuned.

 

Posts in this series

  1. L. Furman, 12/21/12, Popular Logistics Sustainable Energy Portfolio,
  2. L. Furman, 2/8/13, Nega-Watts, Nega-Fuel-Watts, Mega-Bucks,
  3. L. Furman, 2/9/13, Gold Bricks and Sink-Holes – The Risk & Reward of Fossil Fuel, Solar & Wind,
  4. L. Furman, 3/2/13, Sustainable Energy Portfolio UP 16% & Fossil Fuel Portfolio Up 1.7% – Since Dec.21, 2012..
  5. L. Furman, 3/23/13, Portfolio Simulation At 3 Months: Sustainable Energy: Up 22%. Fossil Fuels: 3%.
  6. L. Furman, 4/26/13, Earth Day, 2013. Oil Spills, Explosions, Fracking Business As Usual & The Stock Market Response
  7. L. Furman, 5/13/13, Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: The Trend Continues.
  8. L. Furman, 6/24/13, Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: At 6 months
  9. L. Furman, 7/22/13, Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: Sustainable Energy Doubles. Fossil Fuels increase 5.4%
  10. L. Furman, 8/22/13, Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: An Exercise in Climate Capitalism
  11. L. Furman, 9/20/13, Energy Portfolios – Investing for the Future
  12. L. Furman, 10/21/13, Sustainable Investing – Green Energy, Green Economy
  13. L. Furman, 11/22/13, Energy Portfolios: Minor Corrections, Overall Results In Line With the Trend

I, Larry Furman, an analyst with Popular Logistics, hold a BS and an MBA, am available for consulting in various domains and can be reached at “lfurman97” at G Mail.  My goal in these posts is to present and discuss phenomena which I find interesting and which appear indicative of systemic shifts in the economy. Investments in equities of various companies are risky.  I do NOT hold a “Series 6” or “Series 7” license from the SEC or any similar licensing body. I am NOT a licensed stock broker, investment adviser or financial adviser and this should n0t be considered “Financial Advice” or “Investment Advice.”

 

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