Energy Portfolios, 16 Months: Sustainable Energy up 204.25%, Fossil Fuel up 15.38%

PL_Port.14.4aOn Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; Eight in the Sustainable Energy space and eight in the fossil fuel space. The results:

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 24.54% from Dec. 21, 2012.
  • The S&P 500 is up 30.56% from Dec. 21, 2012.
  • The Fossil Fuel Portfolio had a great month, however, it continues to dramatically underperform the reference indices. It is up 15.38% from Dec. 21, 2012.
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio had a bad month, however, it continues to dramatically outperform the averages, and is up 204.25% from Dec. 21, 2012

 

PL_Port.14.4bThe data are summarized beginning in Table 1, below.

Summary Data
Portfolio 12/21/12 04/21/14 Delta %
Sustainable Energy 8,000,000 24,340,264 16,340,264 204.25%
Fossil Fuel 8,000,000 9,230,491 1,230,491 15.38%
DJI 13,091 16,449 3,358 25.65%
S&P 500 1,430 1,872 442 30.91%
Table 1

The Sustainable Energy portfolio is composed of Cree and Lighting Sciences in the LED space, GTAT, which in Dec. 2012 focused on ovens for cooking PV wafers, and today is diversifying, First Solar and Sunpower in the solar space, Vestas, a wind company, Solazyme, a biofuel company and Next Era, a utility. The fossil fuel companies are the oil companies BP, Chevron Texaco, Conoco Phillips, Exxon Mobil and Royal Dutch Shell, the coal company Peabody Energy, and Haliburton and Transocean, companies in the offshore oil and oil and gas drilling service industries.

If I was building these portfolios today I would add SolarCity, and I might add Tesla Motors. However, the Tesla is as clean as the power system that charges the batteries. Solar and wind are one thing. Nuclear, coal and gas are another.

A similar experiment could be to look at companies in the “Sustainable Business” space. That, however, is subjective. Does WalMart do business in a sustainable manner? It conserves energy in its operations. However, it sells “disposable” merchandise that is not designed to last, and its human resource policies have been criticized in the press and in courts for driving competitors out of business and paying most of its employees significantly less than a living wage.

How about Apple, Inc? Apple builds products that last a long time, and is shifting, or has shifted to solar and wind for its headquarters in Cupertino and data in Oregon and the Carolina. However, Apple iPhones are often discarded after 2 years – as soon as the carrier contracts expire. Apple, like WalMart, has been criticized for the conditions in the factories in which Apple products are made.

As the late Ray Anderson, of Interface, Inc., has observed, much of business is inherently unsustainable.

The stock price data for the Sustainable Energy portfolio are in Table 2, below.

Sustainable Energy Portfolio – Stock Prices
Item Company Symbol 12/21/12 04/21/14 Delta Delta %
1 Cree CREE 34.0 57.6 23.56 69.29%
2 First Solar FSLR 31.0 69.2 38.21 123.26%
3 GT Adv. Tech. GTAT 3.0 16.8 13.78 459.33%
4 Lighting Science LSCG 0.8 0.4 -0.37 -49.60%
5 Next Era Energy NEE 70.0 96.7 26.68 38.11%
6 Sun Power SPWR 5.4 27.5 22.09 406.81%
7 Solazyme SZYM 8.3 11.4 3.09 37.05%
8 Vestas VWS 6.3 41.0 34.69 549.76%
Table 2

The stock price data for the Fossil Fuel Portfolio are in Table 3, below.

Fossil Fuel Portfolio – Stock Prices
Item Company Symbol 12/21/12 04/21/14 Delta Delta %
1 BP BP 42.1 49.0 6.91 16.41%
2 Chevron Texaco CVX 109.7 124.2 14.53 13.24%
3 Conoco Philips COP 58.6 74.6 16.00 27.30%
4 Exxon Mobil XOM 87.2 100.9 13.70 15.71%
5 Royal Dutch Shell RDS.A 69.3 75.6 6.29 9.08%
6 Haliburton HAL 34.7 62.9 28.21 81.27%
7 Transocean RIG 45.6 40.5 -5.10 -11.17%
8 Peabody Coal BTU 26.4 17.4 -8.92 -33.85%
Table 3

The valuation data for the Sustainable Energy Portfolio are in Table 4, below.

Sustainable Energy Portfolio – Valuation
    Value Delta
Item Company Symbol 12/21/12 04/21/14 Delta Delta %
1 Cree CREE 1,000 1,693 693 69.29%
2 First Solar FSLR 1,000 2,233 1,233 123.26%
3 GT Adv. Tech. GTAT 1,000 5,593 4,593 459.33%
4 Lighting Science LSCG 1,000 504 -496 -49.60%
5 Next Era Energy NEE 1,000 1,381 381 38.11%
6 Sun Power SPWR 1,000 5,068 4,068 406.81%
7 Solazyme SZYM 1,000 1,371 371 37.05%
8 Vestas VWS 1,000 6,498 5,498 549.76%
total 8,000 24,340 16,340 204.25%
Note that the values are in thousands.
Table 4

The valuation data for the Fossil Fuel Portfolio are in Table 5, below.

Fossil Fuel Portfolio – Valuations
Value Delta
Item Company Symbol 12/21/12 04/21/14 Amount Per Cent
1 BP BP 1,000 1,164 164 16.41%
2 Chevron Texaco CVX 1,000 1,132 132 13.24%
3 Conoco Philips COP 1,000 1,273 273 27.30%
4 Exxon Mobil XOM 1,000 1,157 157 15.71%
5 Royal Dutch Shell RDS.A 1,000 1,091 91 9.08%
6 Haliburton HAL 1,000 1,813 813 81.27%
7 Transocean RIG 1,000 888 -112 -11.17%
8 Peabody Coal BTU 1,000 670 -330 -32.96%
total 8,000 9,189 1,189 14.86%
Note that the values are in thousands.
Table 5

The market capitalization data for the Sustainable Energy Portfolio are in Table 6.

Sustainable Energy Portfolio
Market Capitalization
Item Company Market Cap
1 Cree 8.8
2 First Solar 5.2
3 GT Adv. Tech. 1.1
4 Lighting Science 0.1
5 Next Era Energy 35.6
6 Sun Power 3.1
7 Solazyme 0.7
8 Vestas 5.8
total 60.39
Table 6

The market capitalization data for the Fossil Fuel Portfolio are in Table 7.

Fossil Fuel Portfolio
Market Capitalization
Item Company Market Cap
1 BP 137.1
2 Chevron Texaco 231.5
3 Conoco Philips 89.3
4 Exxon Mobil 383.4
5 Royal Dutch Shell 211.8
6 Haliburton 50.7
7 Transocean 16.8
8 Peabody Coal 5.1
total 1125.7
Table 7

Posts in this series

  1. L. Furman, 12/21/12, Popular Logistics Sustainable Energy Portfolio,
  2. L. Furman, 2/8/13, Nega-Watts, Nega-Fuel-Watts, Mega-Bucks,
  3. L. Furman, 2/9/13, Gold Bricks and Sink-Holes – The Risk & Reward of Fossil Fuel, Solar & Wind,
  4. L. Furman, 3/2/13, Sustainable Energy Portfolio UP 16% & Fossil Fuel Portfolio Up 1.7% – Since Dec.21, 2012..
  5. L. Furman, 3/23/13, Portfolio Simulation At 3 Months: Sustainable Energy: Up 22%. Fossil Fuels: 3%.
  6. L. Furman, 4/26/13, Earth Day, 2013. Oil Spills, Explosions, Fracking Business As Usual & The Stock Market Response
  7. L. Furman, 5/13/13, Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: The Trend Continues.
  8. L. Furman, 6/24/13, Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: At 6 months
  9. L. Furman, 7/22/13, Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: Sustainable Energy Doubles. Fossil Fuels increase 5.4%
  10. L. Furman, 8/22/13, Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: An Exercise in Climate Capitalism
  11. L. Furman, 9/20/13, Energy Portfolios – Investing for the Future
  12. L. Furman, 10/21/13, Sustainable Investing – Green Energy, Green Economy
  13. L. Furman, 11/22/13, Energy Portfolios: Minor Corrections, Overall Results In Line With the Trend
  14. L. Furman, 12/23/13, Energy Portfolios at One Year Sustainable Energy up 140%. Fossil Fuels up 9.85%.
  15. L. Furman, 12/26/13, Energy Portfolios and Reference Indices, 2013 Summary.
  16. L. Furman, 1/22/14, Energy Portfolios: 13 Months, Sustainable Energy up 167.4%, Fossil Fuels up 9.44%.
  17. L. Furman, 2/24/14, Energy Portfolios: 14 Months: Sustainable Energy up 184.4%, Fossil Fuels up 8.7%
  18. L. Furman, 3/23/14, Energy Portfolios: 15 Months: Sustainable Energy up 222.6, Fossil Fuel up 7.3%
  19. L. Furman, 4/22/14, Energy Portfolios, 16 Months: Sustainable Energy up 204.25%, Fossil Fuel up 15.38%

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I, Larry Furman, an analyst with Popular Logistics, hold a BS and an MBA, am available for consulting in various domains and can be reached at “lfurman97” at G Mail.  My goal in these posts is to present and discuss phenomena which I find interesting and which appear indicative of systemic shifts in the economy. Investments in equities of various companies are risky.  I do NOT hold a “Series 6” or “Series 7” license from the SEC or any similar licensing body. I am NOT a licensed stock broker, investment adviser or financial adviser and this should n0t be considered “Financial Advice” or “Investment Advice.”