Energy Portfolios, 2 years 2 Months: Sustainable Energy up 109%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 11.8%

by L J Furman, MBA on February 23, 2015

in Connecting the Dots, Energy Economics, Solar, Sustainable Investing, Wind Power

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On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs,

  • Fossil Fuel portfolio: from $8.0 M to $7.06 Million, down 11.76%.
  • Sustainable Energy portfolio: from $8.0 M to $16.73 Million, up 109.18%.
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: from 13,091 to 18,140, up 34.15 %,
  • The S&P 500: from 1,430 to 2,110,  up 42.10%.

The Sustainable Energy portfolio is composed of Cree (CREE) and Lighting Sciences (LSCG) in the LED space, GT Advanced Tech (GTAT), which at the time made solar ovens for cooking PV wafers. First Solar (FSLR) and Sunpower Corp. (SPWR) in the solar space, Vestas (VWSYF), a wind company, Solazyme (SZYM) a biofuel company and Next Era Energy (NEE), a utility.

The fossil fuel companies are the oil companies British Petroleum (BP), Chevron Texaco (CVX), Conoco Phillips (COP), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and RD Shell (RDS.A), the coal company Peabody Coal (BTU), and Haliburton (HAL) and Transocean (RIG), companies in the offshore oil and oil and gas drilling service industries.

The data are summarized beginning in Table 1, below.

Summary Data
Portfolio 12/21/12 02/20/15 Delta %
Sustainable Energy 8,000,000 16,734,352 8,734,352 109.18%
Fossil Fuel 8,000,000 7,058,816 -941,184 -11.76%
DJI 13,091 18,140 5,049 38.57%
S&P 500 1,430 2,110 680 47.55%
Table 1

The stock price data for the Sustainable Energy portfolio are in Table 2, below.

Sustainable Energy Portfolio – Stock Prices
Item Company Symbol 12/21/12 02/20/15 Delta Delta %
1 Cree CREE 34.0 39.2 5.19 15.26%
2 First Solar FSLR 31.0 49.0 18.02 58.13%
3 GT Adv. Tech. GTAT 3.0 0.4 -2.65 -88.33%
4 Lighting Science LSCG 0.8 0.1 -0.61 -81.33%
5 Next Era Energy NEE 70.0 105.6 35.60 50.86%
6 Sun Power SPWR 5.4 28.0 22.60 416.21%
7 Solazyme SZYM 8.3 2.6 -5.78 -69.30%
8 Vestas VWS 6.3 42.4 36.09 571.95%
Note that these data are old. GTAT is currently in bankruptcy protection.
Table 2

The stock price data for the Fossil Fuel Portfolio are in Table 3, below.

Fossil Fuel Portfolio – Stock Prices
Item Company Symbol 12/21/12 02/20/15 Delta Delta %
1 BP BP 42.1 41.3 -0.84 -1.99%
2 Chevron Texaco CVX 109.7 108.6 -1.11 -1.01%
3 Conoco Philips COP 58.6 67.4 8.78 14.98%
4 Exxon Mobil XOM 87.2 89.9 2.69 3.08%
5 Royal Dutch Shell RDS.A 69.3 65.8 -3.49 -5.04%
6 Haliburton HAL 34.7 43.4 8.65 24.92%
7 Transocean RIG 45.6 17.0 -28.63 -62.73%
8 Peabody Coal BTU 26.4 7.7 -18.69 -70.93%
Table 3

The valuation data for the Sustainable Energy Portfolio are in Table 4, below.

Sustainable Energy Portfolio – Valuation
    Value Delta
Item Company Symbol 12/21/12 02/20/15 Delta Delta %
1 Cree CREE 1,000 1,153 153 15.26%
2 First Solar FSLR 1,000 1,581 581 58.13%
3 GT Adv. Tech. GTAT 1,000 117 -883 -88.33%
4 Lighting Science LSCG 1,000 187 -813 -81.33%
5 Next Era Energy NEE 1,000 1,509 509 50.86%
6 Sun Power SPWR 1,000 5,162 4,162 416.21%
7 Solazyme SZYM 1,000 307 -693 -69.30%
8 Vestas VWS 1,000 6,719 5,719 571.95%
total 8,000 16,734 8,734 109.18%
Note that the values are in thousands.
Table 4

The valuation data for the Fossil Fuel Portfolio are in Table 5, below.

Fossil Fuel Portfolio – Valuations
Value Delta
Item Company Symbol 12/21/12 02/20/15 Amount Per Cent
1 BP BP 1,000 980 -20 -1.99%
2 Chevron Texaco CVX 1,000 990 -10 -1.01%
3 Conoco Philips COP 1,000 1,150 150 14.98%
4 Exxon Mobil XOM 1,000 1,031 31 3.08%
5 Royal Dutch Shell RDS.A 1,000 950 -50 -5.04%
6 Haliburton HAL 1,000 1,249 249 24.92%
7 Transocean RIG 1,000 373 -627 -62.73%
8 Peabody Coal BTU 1,000 295 -705 -70.54%
total 8,000 7,017 -983 -12.29%
Note that the values are in thousands.
Table 5

The market capitalization data for the Sustainable Energy Portfolio are in Table 6.

Sustainable Energy Portfolio
Market Capitalization (Billions)
Item Company 12/21/12 02/20/15
1 Cree 3.9 4.4
2 First Solar 2.69 4.9
3 GT Adv. Tech. 0.36 0.0
4 Lighting Science 0.15 0.0
5 Next Era Energy 29.6 46.9
6 Sun Power 0.88 3.7
7 Solazyme 0.52 0.2
8 Vestas 1.48 9.5
total 39.58 69.64
Table 6

The market capitalization data for the Fossil Fuel Portfolio are in Table 7.

Fossil Fuel Portfolio – Market Capitalization
Market Capitalization (Billions)
Item Company 12/21/12 02/20/15
1 BP 133.8 125.5
2 Chevron Texaco 214.7 205.3
3 Conoco Philips 71.2 82.9
4 Exxon Mobil 397.7 377.8
5 Royal Dutch Shell 216.8 210.7
6 Haliburton 32.2 36.8
7 Transocean 16.4 6.3
8 Peabody Coal 6.37 2.1
total 1089.2 1047.5
Table 7

Posts in this series

  1. L. Furman, 12/21/12, Popular Logistics Sustainable Energy Portfolio
  2. L. Furman, 2/8/13, Nega-Watts, Nega-Fuel-Watts, Mega-Bucks
  3. L. Furman, 2/9/13, Gold Bricks and Sink-Holes – The Risk & Reward of Fossil Fuel, Solar & Wind
  4. L. Furman, 3/2/13, Sustainable Energy Portfolio UP 16% & Fossil Fuel Portfolio Up 1.7% – Since Dec.21, 2012
  5. L. Furman, 3/23/13, Portfolio Simulation At 3 Months: Sustainable Energy: Up 22%. Fossil Fuels: 3%
  6. L. Furman, 4/26/13, Earth Day, 2013. Oil Spills, Explosions, Fracking Business As Usual & The Stock Market Response
  7. L. Furman, 5/13/13, Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: The Trend Continues.
  8. L. Furman, 6/24/13, Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: At 6 months
  9. L. Furman, 7/22/13, Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: Sustainable Energy Doubles. Fossil Fuels increase 5.4%
  10. L. Furman, 8/22/13, Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: An Exercise in Climate Capitalism
  11. L. Furman, 9/20/13, Energy Portfolios – Investing for the Future
  12. L. Furman, 10/21/13, Sustainable Investing – Green Energy, Green Economy
  13. L. Furman, 11/22/13, Energy Portfolios: Minor Corrections, Overall Results In Line With the Trend
  14. L. Furman, 12/23/13, Energy Portfolios at One Year Sustainable Energy up 140%. Fossil Fuels up 9.85%
  15. L. Furman, 12/26/13, Energy Portfolios and Reference Indices, 2013 Summary.
  16. L. Furman, 1/22/14, Energy Portfolios: 13 Months, Sustainable Energy up 167.4%, Fossil Fuels up 9.44%
  17. L. Furman, 2/24/14, Energy Portfolios: 14 Months: Sustainable Energy up 184.4%, Fossil Fuels up 8.7%
  18. L. Furman, 3/23/14, Energy Portfolios: 15 Months: Sustainable Energy up 222.6, Fossil Fuel up 7.3%
  19. L. Furman, 4/22/14, Energy Portfolios, 16 Months: Sustainable Energy up 204.25%, Fossil Fuel up 15.38%
  20. L. Furman, 5/21/14, Energy Portfolios, 17 Months: Sustainable Energy up 211.6%, Fossil Fuels up 18.5%
  21. L. Furman, 6/24/14, Energy Portfolios, 18 Months: Sustainable Energy up 257%, Fossil Fuels up 24.6%
  22. L. Furman, 6/26/14, Energy Portfolios: 18 Months, Analysis
  23. L. Furman, 7/22/14, Energy Portfolios: 19 Months: Sustainable Energy up 222%, Fossil Fuels up 25%
  24. L. Furman, 8/23/14, Energy Portfolios: 20 Months: Sustainable Energy up 229%, Fossil Fuels up 18.4%
  25. L. Furman, 8/29 /14, Energy Portfolios: 20 Months: Conclusion & Observations
  26. L. Furman, 10/1/14, The Paradigm Is Shifting; Fossil Fuels Are Becoming Fossils
  27. L. Furman, 10/7/14, Cree: Strong Financials, But …
  28. L. Furman, 10/21/14, Energy Portfolios: 22 Months: Sustainable Energy Up But Dropping.
  29. L. Furman, 11/27/14, Energy Portfolios: 23 Months: Sustainable Energy DOUBLED, Fossil Fuel Down (slightly)
  30. L. Furman, 12/28/14, Energy Portfolios: 24 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 91%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 10%
  31. L. Furman, 1/27/15, Energy Portfolios: 2 Years, 1 Month, Sustainable Up 85%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 15%
  32. L. Furman, 2/23/15, Energy Portfolios: 2 Years, 2 Months, Sustainable Up 109%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 12%

An analyst with Popular Logistics, I hold a BS and an MBA and over 20 years experience in Information Technology. Available as a speaker and consultant, I can be reached at “LFurman . MBA” at G Mail.  The goal in these posts is to present and discuss phenomena which I find interesting and which appear indicative of systemic shifts in the economy. Investments in equities of various companies are risky.  I do NOT hold a “Series 6″ or “Series 7″ license from the SEC or any similar license from any other licensing body. I am NOT a licensed stock broker, investment adviser or financial adviser and this should n0t be considered “Financial Advice” or “Investment Advice.”

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