Energy Portfolios, 3 Years: Sustainable Energy Up 166.6%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 36.23%

PLPort.1512On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space.

As of the close of trading on December 21, 2015:

  • The Fossil Fuel portfolio was worth $5.1 Million, down 36.23% overall, down 12.08% on an annualized basis.
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio was worth $21.33 Million, up 166.6%, overall and 55.53% on an annualized basis.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 31.8% overall and 10.6% on an annualized basis, from 13,091 on 12/21/12 to close at 17,252 on 10/21/15.
  • The S&P 500 is up 41.33% overall and 13.78% on an annualized basis, from 1,430 on 12/21/12 to close at 2,021 on 10/21/15.
  • If there’s a war on coal, it’s part of the war on fossil fuel – and fossil fuel is losing.

The Sustainable Energy portfolio is composed of Cree (CREE) and Lighting Sciences (LSCG) in the LED space, GT Advanced Tech (GTAT), which at the time made solar ovens for cooking PV wafers. First Solar (FSLR) and Sunpower Corp. (SPWR) in the solar space, Vestas (VWSYF), a wind company, Solazyme (SZYM) a biofuel company and Next Era Energy (NEE), a utility.

The fossil fuel companies are the oil companies British Petroleum (BP), Chevron Texaco (CVX), Conoco Phillips (COP), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and RD Shell (RDS.A), the coal company Peabody Coal (BTU), and Haliburton (HAL) and Transocean (RIG), companies in the offshore oil and oil and gas drilling service industries.

The data are summarized beginning in Table 1, below.

Summary Data
Portfolio 12/21/12 12/21/15 Delta Delta % Annualized
Sustainable Energy 8,000,000 21,328,141 13,328,141 166.60% 55.53%
Fossil Fuel 8,000,000 5,101,815 -2,898,185 -36.23% -12.08%
DJI 13,091 17,252 4,161 31.79% 10.60%
S&P 500 1,430 2,021 591 41.33% 13.78%
Table 1

The stock price data for the Sustainable Energy portfolio are in Table 2, below.

Sustainable Energy Portfolio – Stock Prices
Item Company Symbol 12/21/12 12/21/15 Delta Delta %
1 Cree CREE 34.0 26.8 -7.23 -21.26%
2 First Solar FSLR 31.0 65.7 34.74 112.06%
3 GT Adv. Tech. GTAT 3.0 0.1 -2.92 -97.33%
4 Lighting Science LSCG 0.8 0.1 -0.66 -87.33%
5 Next Era Energy NEE 70.0 102.3 32.30 46.14%
6 Sun Power SPWR 5.4 30.0 24.61 453.22%
7 Solazyme SZYM 8.3 2.8 -5.52 -66.19%
8 Vestas VWS 6.3 69.0 62.69 993.50%
Note that GTAT is currently in bankruptcy protection.
Table 2

The stock price data for the Fossil Fuel Portfolio are in Table 3, below.

Fossil Fuel Portfolio – Stock Prices
Item Company Symbol 12/21/12 12/21/15 Delta Delta %
1 BP BP 42.1 30.1 -11.98 -28.44%
2 Chevron Texaco CVX 109.7 89.3 -20.46 -18.65%
3 Conoco Philips COP 58.6 45.1 -13.50 -23.04%
4 Exxon Mobil XOM 87.2 77.3 -9.97 -11.43%
5 Royal Dutch Shell RDS.A 69.3 43.5 -25.76 -37.18%
6 Haliburton HAL 34.7 33.4 -1.31 -3.77%
7 Transocean RIG 45.6 12.1 -33.52 -73.44%
8 Peabody Coal BTU 395.3 7.4 -387.84 -98.13%
Table 3

The valuation data for the Sustainable Energy Portfolio are in Table 4, below.

Sustainable Energy Portfolio – Valuation
    Value Delta
Item Company Symbol 12/21/12 12/21/15 Delta Delta %
1 Cree CREE 1,000 787 -213 -21.26%
2 First Solar FSLR 1,000 2,121 1,121 112.06%
3 GT Adv. Tech. GTAT 1,000 27 -973 -97.33%
4 Lighting Science LSCG 1,000 127 -873 -87.33%
5 Next Era Energy NEE 1,000 1,461 461 46.14%
6 Sun Power SPWR 1,000 5,532 4,532 453.22%
7 Solazyme SZYM 1,000 338 -662 -66.19%
8 Vestas VWS 1,000 10,935 9,935 993.50%
total 8,000 21,328 13,328 166.60%
Values in thousands.
Table 4

The valuation data for the Fossil Fuel Portfolio are in Table 5, below.

Fossil Fuel Portfolio – Valuations
Value Delta
Item Company Symbol 12/21/12 12/21/15 Amount Per Cent
1 BP BP 1,000 716 -284 -28.44%
2 Chevron Texaco CVX 1,000 814 -186 -18.65%
3 Conoco Philips COP 1,000 770 -230 -23.04%
4 Exxon Mobil XOM 1,000 886 -114 -11.43%
5 Royal Dutch Shell RDS.A 1,000 628 -372 -37.18%
6 Haliburton HAL 1,000 962 -38 -3.77%
7 Transocean RIG 1,000 266 -734 -73.44%
8 Peabody Coal BTU 1,000 19 -981 -98.10%
total 8,000 5,059 -2,941 -36.76%
Values in thousands.
Table 5

The market capitalization data for the Sustainable Energy Portfolio are in Table 6.

Sustainable Energy Portfolio
Market Capitalization (Billions)
Item Company 12/21/12 12/21/15
1 Cree 3.90 2.74
2 First Solar 2.69 6.40
3 GT Adv. Tech. 0.36 0.00
4 Lighting Science 0.15 0.00
5 Next Era Energy 29.60 47.03
6 Sun Power 0.88 3.91
7 Solazyme 0.52 0.20
8 Vestas 1.48 15.56
total 39.58 75.84
Table 6

The market capitalization data for the Fossil Fuel Portfolio are in Table 7.

Fossil Fuel Portfolio – Market Capitalization
Market Capitalization (Billions)
Item Company 12/21/12 12/21/15
1 BP 133.8 92.86
2 Chevron Texaco 214.7 169.03
3 Conoco Philips 71.2 56.71
4 Exxon Mobil 397.7 321.71
5 Royal Dutch Shell 216.8 141.18
6 Haliburton 32.2 28.62
7 Transocean 16.4 4.53
8 Peabody Coal 6.37 0.14
total 1089.2 814.78
Table 7

Posts in this series

  1. L. Furman, 12/21/12, Popular Logistics Sustainable Energy Portfolio
  2. L. Furman, 2/8/13, Nega-Watts, Nega-Fuel-Watts, Mega-Bucks
  3. L. Furman, 2/9/13, Gold Bricks and Sink-Holes – The Risk & Reward of Fossil Fuel, Solar & Wind
  4. L. Furman, 3/2/13, Sustainable Energy Portfolio UP 16% & Fossil Fuel Portfolio Up 1.7% – Since Dec.21, 2012
  5. L. Furman, 3/23/13, Portfolio Simulation At 3 Months: Sustainable Energy: Up 22%. Fossil Fuels: 3%
  6. L. Furman, 4/26/13, Earth Day, 2013. Oil Spills, Explosions, Fracking Business As Usual & The Stock Market Response
  7. L. Furman, 5/13/13, Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: The Trend Continues.
  8. L. Furman, 6/24/13, Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: At 6 months
  9. L. Furman, 7/22/13, Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: Sustainable Energy Doubles. Fossil Fuels increase 5.4%
  10. L. Furman, 8/22/13, Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: An Exercise in Climate Capitalism
  11. L. Furman, 9/20/13, Energy Portfolios – Investing for the Future
  12. L. Furman, 10/21/13, Sustainable Investing – Green Energy, Green Economy
  13. L. Furman, 11/22/13, Energy Portfolios: Minor Corrections, Overall Results In Line With the Trend
  14. L. Furman, 12/23/13, Energy Portfolios at One Year Sustainable Energy up 140%. Fossil Fuels up 9.85%
  15. L. Furman, 12/26/13, Energy Portfolios and Reference Indices, 2013 Summary.
  16. L. Furman, 1/22/14, Energy Portfolios: 13 Months, Sustainable Energy up 167.4%, Fossil Fuels up 9.44%
  17. L. Furman, 2/24/14, Energy Portfolios: 14 Months: Sustainable Energy up 184.4%, Fossil Fuels up 8.7%
  18. L. Furman, 3/23/14, Energy Portfolios: 15 Months: Sustainable Energy up 222.6, Fossil Fuel up 7.3%
  19. L. Furman, 4/22/14, Energy Portfolios, 16 Months: Sustainable Energy up 204.25%, Fossil Fuel up 15.38%
  20. L. Furman, 5/21/14, Energy Portfolios, 17 Months: Sustainable Energy up 211.6%, Fossil Fuels up 18.5%
  21. L. Furman, 6/24/14, Energy Portfolios, 18 Months: Sustainable Energy up 257%, Fossil Fuels up 24.6%
  22. L. Furman, 6/26/14, Energy Portfolios: 18 Months, Analysis
  23. L. Furman, 7/22/14, Energy Portfolios: 19 Months: Sustainable Energy up 222%, Fossil Fuels up 25%
  24. L. Furman, 8/23/14, Energy Portfolios: 20 Months: Sustainable Energy up 229%, Fossil Fuels up 18.4%
  25. L. Furman, 8/29 /14, Energy Portfolios: 20 Months: Conclusion & Observations
  26. L. Furman, 10/1/14, The Paradigm Is Shifting; Fossil Fuels Are Becoming Fossils
  27. L. Furman, 10/7/14, Cree: Strong Financials, But …
  28. L. Furman, 10/21/14, Energy Portfolios: 22 Months: Sustainable Energy Up But Dropping.
  29. L. Furman, 11/27/14, Energy Portfolios: 23 Months: Sustainable Energy DOUBLED, Fossil Fuel Down (slightly).
  30. L. Furman, 12/28/14, Energy Portfolios: 24 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 91%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 10%.
  31. L. Furman, 1/27/15, Energy Portfolios: 2 Years, 1 Month, Sustainable Up 85%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 15%
  32. L. Furman, 2/23/15, Energy Portfolios: 2 Years, 2 Months, Sustainable Up 109%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 12%.
  33. L. Furman, 3/21,15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 3 Months: Sustainable up 128%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 16%.
  34. L. Furman, 4/21/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 4 Months: Sustainable up 138%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 12%.
  35. L. Furman, 5/21/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 5 Months: Sustainable up 137%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 13.7%.
  36. L. Furman, 6/21/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 6 Months: Sustainable up 128%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 18%.
  37. L. Furman, 7/23/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 7 Months: Sustainable up 121%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 24%.
  38. L. Furman, 8/22/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 8 Months: Sustainable up 102%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 34.3%.
  39. L. Furman, 8/26/15, Energy Portfolios and “The Correction“.
  40. L. Furman, 10/1/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 9 Months: Sustainable up 111.3%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 33.5%.
  41. L. Furman, 10/22/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 10 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 125%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 27%.
  42. L. Furman, 11/23/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 11 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 129%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 29.6%.
  43. L. Furman, 12/22/15, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years: Sustainable Energy up 166.6%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 36.2%

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An analyst with Popular Logistics, I hold a BS and an MBA in “Managing for Sustainability” from Marlboro College, and over 20 years experience in Information Technology. Available as a speaker and consultant, I can be reached at “L Furman” at “Popular Logistics . com”.