Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 4 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 139%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 29.3%

by L J Furman, MBA on April 22, 2016

in Alpha, Connecting the Dots, Energy Economics, Sustainable, Sustainable Investing

PL_Port.40On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space, and one company in the fossil fuel space.

The big news this month is the bankruptcy filing of Peabody Coal (Bloomberg, here).

As of the close of trading on April 21, 2016:

  • The Fossil Fuel portfolio went from $8.0 Million to $5.66 Million, down 29.3% overall, down 9.49% on an annualized basis.
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio went from $8 Million to $19.1 Million, up 139%, overall and 45.1% on an annualized basis.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 37.4% overall and 12.12% on an annualized basis, went from 13.091 on 12/21/12 to 17,983 on 4/21/16.
  • The S&P 500 is up 46.22% overall and 14.99% on an annualized basis, from 1,430 on 12/21/12 to close at 2,091 on 1/21/16.

The Sustainable Energy portfolio is composed of Cree (CREE) and Lighting Sciences (LSCG) in the LED space, GT Advanced Tech (GTAT), which at the time made solar ovens for cooking PV wafers. First Solar (FSLR) and Sunpower Corp. (SPWR) in the solar space, Vestas (VWSYF), a wind company, Solazyme (SZYM) a biofuel company and Next Era Energy (NEE), a utility.

The fossil fuel companies are the oil companies British Petroleum (BP), Chevron Texaco (CVX), Conoco Phillips (COP), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and RD Shell (RDS.A), the coal company Peabody Coal (BTU), and Haliburton (HAL) and Transocean (RIG), companies in the offshore oil and oil and gas drilling service industries.

The data are summarized beginning in Table 1, below.

Summary Data
Portfolio 12/21/12 04/21/16 Delta Delta % Annualized
Sustainable Energy 8,000,000 19,123,957 11,123,957 139.05% 45.10%
Fossil Fuel 8,000,000 5,659,383 -2,340,617 -29.26% -9.49%
DJI 13,091 17,983 4,892 37.37% 12.12%
S&P 500 1,430 2,091 661 46.22% 14.99%
Table 1

The stock price data for the Sustainable Energy portfolio are in Table 2, below.

Sustainable Energy Portfolio – Stock Prices
Item Company Symbol 12/21/12 04/21/16 Delta Delta %
1 Cree CREE 34.0 24.3 -9.69 -28.50%
2 First Solar FSLR 31.0 61.9 30.94 99.81%
3 GT Adv. Tech. GTAT 3.0 0.0 -3.00 -100.00%
4 Lighting Science LSCG 0.8 0.1 -0.66 -88.00%
5 Next Era Energy NEE 70.0 112.9 42.91 61.30%
6 Sun Power SPWR 5.4 21.5 16.03 295.21%
7 Solazyme SZYM 8.3 2.2 -6.12 -73.38%
8 Vestas VWS 6.3 66.0 59.69 945.96%
Note that GTAT is currently in bankruptcy protection.
Table 2

The stock price data for the Fossil Fuel Portfolio are in Table 3, below.

Fossil Fuel Portfolio – Stock Prices
Item Company Symbol 12/21/12 04/21/16 Delta Delta %
1 BP BP 42.1 31.7 -10.38 -24.64%
2 Chevron Texaco CVX 109.7 101.4 -8.28 -7.55%
3 Conoco Philips COP 58.6 46.2 -12.37 -21.11%
4 Exxon Mobil XOM 87.2 86.8 -0.43 -0.49%
5 Royal Dutch Shell RDS.A 69.3 52.6 -16.66 -24.04%
6 Haliburton HAL 34.7 40.3 5.62 16.19%
7 Transocean RIG 45.6 10.5 -35.11 -76.93%
8 Peabody Coal BTUUQ 395.3 1.0 -394.22 -99.74%
Table 3

The valuation data for the Sustainable Energy Portfolio are in Table 4, below.

Sustainable Energy Portfolio – Valuation
    Value Delta
Item Company Symbol 12/21/12 04/21/16 Delta Delta %
1 Cree CREE 1,000 715 -285 -28.50%
2 First Solar FSLR 1,000 1,998 998 99.81%
3 GT Adv. Tech. GTAT 1,000 0 -1,000 -100.00%
4 Lighting Science LSCG 1,000 120 -880 -88.00%
5 Next Era Energy NEE 1,000 1,613 613 61.30%
6 Sun Power SPWR 1,000 3,952 2,952 295.21%
7 Solazyme SZYM 1,000 266 -734 -73.38%
8 Vestas VWS 1,000 10,460 9,460 945.96%
total 8,000 19,124 11,124 139.05%
Values in thousands.
Table 4

The valuation data for the Fossil Fuel Portfolio are in Table 5, below.

Fossil Fuel Portfolio – Valuations
Value Delta
Item Company Symbol 12/21/12 04/21/16 Amount Per Cent
1 BP BP 1,000 754 -246 -24.64%
2 Chevron Texaco CVX 1,000 925 -75 -7.55%
3 Conoco Philips COP 1,000 789 -211 -21.11%
4 Exxon Mobil XOM 1,000 995 -5 -0.49%
5 Royal Dutch Shell RDS.A 1,000 760 -240 -24.04%
6 Haliburton HAL 1,000 1,162 162 16.19%
7 Transocean RIG 1,000 231 -769 -76.93%
8 Peabody Coal BTUUQ 1,000 3 -997 -99.74%
total 8,000 5,617 -2,383 -29.79%
Values in thousands.
Table 5

The market capitalization data for the Sustainable Energy Portfolio are in Table 6.

Sustainable Energy Portfolio
Market Capitalization (Billions)
Item Company 12/21/12 04/21/16 Delta Delta %
1 Cree 3.90 2.47 -1.43 -36.67%
2 First Solar 2.69 6.46 3.77 140.15%
3 GT Adv. Tech. 0.36 0.00 -0.35 -98.88%
4 Lighting Science 0.15 0.00 -0.15 -100.00%
5 Next Era Energy 29.60 50.96 21.36 72.16%
6 Sun Power 0.88 2.99 2.11 240.59%
7 Solazyme 0.52 0.19 -0.33 -63.76%
8 Vestas 1.48 15.24 13.76 929.73%
total 39.58 78.31 38.74 97.87%
Table 6

The market capitalization data for the Fossil Fuel Portfolio are in Table 7.

Fossil Fuel Portfolio – Market Capitalization
Market Capitalization (Billions)
Item Company 12/21/12 04/21/16 Delta Delta %
1 BP 133.8 91.94 -41.86 -31.29%
2 Chevron Texaco 214.7 175.01 -39.69 -18.49%
3 Conoco Philips 71.2 47.05 -24.15 -33.92%
4 Exxon Mobil 397.7 347.09 -50.61 -12.73%
5 Royal Dutch Shell 216.8 191.36 -25.44 -11.73%
6 Haliburton 32.2 29.45 -2.75 -8.54%
7 Transocean 16.4 3.17 -13.23 -80.67%
8 Peabody Coal 6.37 0.40 -5.97 -93.72%
total 1089.2 885.47 -203.7 -18.70%
Table 7

The market capitalization data for the Big Oil portion of the Fossil Fuel Portfolio are in Table 8.

Big Oil Portfolio – Market Capitalization
Market Capitalization (Billions)
Item Company 12/21/12 04/21/16 Delta Delta %
1 BP 133.8 91.9 -41.86 -31.29%
2 Chevron Texaco 214.7 175.0 -39.69 -18.49%
3 Conoco Philips 71.2 47.1 -24.15 -33.92%
4 Exxon Mobil 397.7 347.1 -50.61 -12.73%
5 Royal Dutch Shell 216.8 191.4 -25.44 -11.73%
total 1034.2 852.5 -181.75 -17.57%
Table 8

Posts in this series

  1. L. Furman, 12/21/12, Popular Logistics Sustainable Energy Portfolio
  2. L. Furman, 2/8/13, Nega-Watts, Nega-Fuel-Watts, Mega-Bucks
  3. L. Furman, 2/9/13, Gold Bricks and Sink-Holes – The Risk & Reward of Fossil Fuel, Solar & Wind
  4. L. Furman, 3/2/13, Sustainable Energy Portfolio UP 16% & Fossil Fuel Portfolio Up 1.7% – Since Dec.21, 2012
  5. L. Furman, 3/23/13, Portfolio Simulation At 3 Months: Sustainable Energy: Up 22%. Fossil Fuels: 3%
  6. L. Furman, 4/26/13, Earth Day, 2013. Oil Spills, Explosions, Fracking Business As Usual & The Stock Market Response
  7. L. Furman, 5/13/13, Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: The Trend Continues.
  8. L. Furman, 6/24/13, Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: At 6 months
  9. L. Furman, 7/22/13, Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: Sustainable Energy Doubles. Fossil Fuels increase 5.4%
  10. L. Furman, 8/22/13, Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: An Exercise in Climate Capitalism
  11. L. Furman, 9/20/13, Energy Portfolios – Investing for the Future
  12. L. Furman, 10/21/13, Sustainable Investing – Green Energy, Green Economy
  13. L. Furman, 11/22/13, Energy Portfolios: Minor Corrections, Overall Results In Line With the Trend
  14. L. Furman, 12/23/13, Energy Portfolios at One Year Sustainable Energy up 140%. Fossil Fuels up 9.85%
  15. L. Furman, 12/26/13, Energy Portfolios and Reference Indices, 2013 Summary.
  16. L. Furman, 1/22/14, Energy Portfolios: 13 Months, Sustainable Energy up 167.4%, Fossil Fuels up 9.44%
  17. L. Furman, 2/24/14, Energy Portfolios: 14 Months: Sustainable Energy up 184.4%, Fossil Fuels up 8.7%
  18. L. Furman, 3/23/14, Energy Portfolios: 15 Months: Sustainable Energy up 222.6, Fossil Fuel up 7.3%
  19. L. Furman, 4/22/14, Energy Portfolios, 16 Months: Sustainable Energy up 204.25%, Fossil Fuel up 15.38%
  20. L. Furman, 5/21/14, Energy Portfolios, 17 Months: Sustainable Energy up 211.6%, Fossil Fuels up 18.5%
  21. L. Furman, 6/24/14, Energy Portfolios, 18 Months: Sustainable Energy up 257%, Fossil Fuels up 24.6%
  22. L. Furman, 6/26/14, Energy Portfolios: 18 Months, Analysis
  23. L. Furman, 7/22/14, Energy Portfolios: 19 Months: Sustainable Energy up 222%, Fossil Fuels up 25%
  24. L. Furman, 8/23/14, Energy Portfolios: 20 Months: Sustainable Energy up 229%, Fossil Fuels up 18.4%
  25. L. Furman, 8/29 /14, Energy Portfolios: 20 Months: Conclusion & Observations
  26. L. Furman, 10/1/14, The Paradigm Is Shifting; Fossil Fuels Are Becoming Fossils
  27. L. Furman, 10/7/14, Cree: Strong Financials, But …
  28. L. Furman, 10/21/14, Energy Portfolios: 22 Months: Sustainable Energy Up But Dropping.
  29. L. Furman, 11/27/14, Energy Portfolios: 23 Months: Sustainable Energy DOUBLED, Fossil Fuel Down (slightly).
  30. L. Furman, 12/28/14, Energy Portfolios: 24 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 91%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 10%.
  31. L. Furman, 1/27/15, Energy Portfolios: 2 Years, 1 Month, Sustainable Up 85%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 15%
  32. L. Furman, 2/23/15, Energy Portfolios: 2 Years, 2 Months, Sustainable Up 109%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 12%.
  33. L. Furman, 3/21,15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 3 Months: Sustainable up 128%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 16%.
  34. L. Furman, 4/21/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 4 Months: Sustainable up 138%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 12%.
  35. L. Furman, 5/21/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 5 Months: Sustainable up 137%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 13.7%.
  36. L. Furman, 6/21/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 6 Months: Sustainable up 128%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 18%.
  37. L. Furman, 7/23/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 7 Months: Sustainable up 121%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 24%.
  38. L. Furman, 8/22/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 8 Months: Sustainable up 102%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 34.3%.
  39. L. Furman, 8/26/15, Energy Portfolios and “The Correction“.
  40. L. Furman, 10/1/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 9 Months: Sustainable up 111.3%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 33.5%.
  41. L. Furman, 10/22/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 10 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 125%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 27%.
  42. L. Furman, 11/23/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 11 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 129%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 29.6%.
  43. L. Furman, 12/22/15, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years: Sustainable Energy up 166.6%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 36.2%
  44. L. Furman, 1/26/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 1 Month: Sustainable Energy UP 135.6%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 42.8%.
  45. L. Furman, 2/22/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 2 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 139.5%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 40.7%.
  46. L. Furman, 3/24/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 3 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 159.7%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 33.2%.
  47. L. Furman, 4/22/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 4 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 139%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 29.3%.


A co-founder of Popular Logistics, I hold a BS and an MBA in “Managing for Sustainability” from Marlboro College, and over 20 years experience in Information Technology. Available as a speaker and consultant, I can be reached at “Popular Logistics . com” as “L Furman.”

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