Category Archives: Renewable

Solar v Corn to Ethanol

Writing for “Virginia Mercury,” Ivy Main says,

What is certain is that improvements in wind, solar, battery storage and electric vehicles will continue these technologies’ march to dominance, while fossil fuels become niche. Concerns about the land needs of renewable energy are overblown; you could power the entire U.S. with solar panels on just one-third of the more than 30 million acres currently devoted to growing corn for climate-unfriendly ethanol. Indeed, solar doesn’t even have to displace farming. Agrivoltaics is already making solar and agriculture compatible and creating money-saving synergies.  

I am sure she is correct. Consider the the logistics and life cycles of the PV Solar and Corn to Ethanol systems and the Second Law of Thermodynamics. The 2nd law basically “The entropy of the universe increases.” (Entropy is randomness or disorder. And this is high school physics.)

Imagine a building w a solar roof. The sun shines on the roof, and it powers the building (except at night or when it’s raining or snowing). One stop shopping. 

Imagine a corn to ethanol operation. 

  1. Plant corn. 
  2. Apply fertilizer. 
  3. Apply pesticides. 
  4. Repeat 2 and 3 as needed. 
  5. Harvest the corn. 
  6. Process it into ethanol. 
  7. Ship the ethanol to a facility where it is mixed into gasoline. 
  8. Ship the gas-methanol mixture to gas stations. 
  9. Repeat. 

Not quite as simple. 

Solar modules generate electricity by converting photons into electric current.
Ethanol farms convert photons into corn, which must be harvested, then processed. Growing the crop probably uses fertilizer and pesticides, because the corn to ethanol operations are probably not organic farms. The tractors required for planting, harvesting, etc require fuel, maintenance. The factories in which the corn is transformed into ethanol require power and maintenance, and if they have moving parts, lubricants. Transporting the ethanol requires tankers, pipelines, etc. 
Solar is one step. Corn to ethanol is multiple steps. Entropy is created, energy is lost in each step. (Energy is also lost in solar when 1) the direct current generated by a PV solar module is inverted into DC and 2) the electricity travels thru transmission lines.)
And PV Solar works with low maintenance for 20 to 30 years. While corn to ethanol planting, harvesting, processing need to be repeated every year.

The Answer My Friends, Is Blowin’ in the Wind –

Image of Block Island Wind, off of Rhode Island

As noted in the Asbury Park Press, here, Orsted (DKK, DNNGY). with support from PSEG, will build Ocean Wind, a 1.11 GW farm about 15 miles east of Atlantic City.  “Ocean Wind” should come online in 2024. NJ’s Board of Public Utilities, BPU approved the $1.6 Billion, $1.44 per watt plan. (Press Release. Financial Information.)

That’s about twice the nameplate capacity of the Oyster Creek nuclear power plant, built in the late 1960’s and turned off in 2018, at 12.8% of the cost of new nuclear.

Back in 2008, NASA published this on Global Ocean Wind Energy Potential. 

Ocean Wind will power roughly 500,000 homes beginning in 2024. NJ Gov. Phil Murphy set the state’s Energy Master Plan to build 3.5 GW offshore wind to power 1.5 million homes by 2030.

Meanwhile, in Georgia, the newest nuclear power plants, the 2.234 GW Vogtle 3 and 4, the first new nuclear reactors built in the United States in 30 years, are now 6 years late and estimated to cost $28 billion. (Taxpayer.net).  That is a cost overrun of $14 billion, 100% over the initial cost of $14 billion.  (Atlanta Journal Constitution, Power).

New nuclear is 8.7 times the cost of new wind power capacity. And nuclear needs fuel, waste management, and the safety and security concerns with nuclear power can not be understated.

—

A co-founder of Popular Logistics, I hold an MBA in “Managing for Sustainability” from Marlboro College and a Bachelor’s of Science in Biology from the City University of New York  College of Staten Island. I also hold a PMI’s PMP and CompTIA’sNetwork+ certifications. Available as a speaker and consultant, I can be reached at “Popular Logistics . com” as “L Furman.”

3 Years, 9 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 134%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 31%

plp-1609

On Dec. 21, 2012, I imagined $16 Million dollars in equal investments in 16 real energy companies; eight Sustainable Energy companies and eight fossil fuel companies. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space.

As of the close of trading on September 21, 2016:

  • The Fossil Fuel portfolio went from $8.0 Million to $5.52 Million, down 31.05% overall, down 8.3% on an annualized basis.
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio went from $8 Million to $18.7 Million, up 133.5% overall and 35.6% on an annualized basis.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average went from 13.091 on 12/21/12 to 18,294, up 39.7%, overall and 10.6% on an annualized basis
  • The S&P 500 went from 1,430 on 12/21/12 to close at 2,165, up 51.3% overall and 13.7% on an annualized basis.

The Sustainable Energy portfolio is composed of Cree (CREE) and Lighting Sciences (LSCG) in the LED space, GT Advanced Tech (GTAT), which at the time made solar ovens for cooking PV wafers. First Solar (FSLR) and Sunpower Corp. (SPWR) in the solar space, Vestas (VWSYF), a wind company, Solazyme (SZYM) a biofuel company and Next Era Energy (NEE), a utility.

The fossil fuel companies are the oil companies British Petroleum (BP), Chevron Texaco (CVX), Conoco Phillips (COP), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and RD Shell (RDS.A), the coal company Peabody Coal (BTU), and Haliburton (HAL) and Transocean (RIG), companies in the offshore oil and oil and gas drilling service industries.

The data are summarized beginning in Table 1, below.

Summary Data
Portfolio 12/21/12 09/21/16 Delta Delta % Annualized
Sustainable Energy 8,000,000 18,681,471 10,681,471 133.52% 35.60%
Fossil Fuel 8,000,000 5,515,027 -2,484,973 -31.06% -8.28%
DJI 13,091 18,294 5,203 39.74% 10.60%
S&P 500 1,430 2,163 733 51.26% 13.67%
Table 1

The stock price data for the Sustainable Energy portfolio are in Table 2, below.

Sustainable Energy Portfolio – Stock Prices
Item Company Symbol 12/21/12 09/21/16 Delta Delta %
1 Cree CREE 34.0 24.6 -9.42 -27.71%
2 First Solar FSLR 31.0 34.1 3.07 9.90%
3 GT Adv. Tech. GTAT 3.0 0.0 -2.98 -99.28%
4 Lighting Science LSCG 0.8 0.1 -0.67 -89.33%
5 Next Era Energy NEE 70.0 127.8 57.84 82.63%
6 Sun Power SPWR 5.4 8.1 2.62 48.25%
7 Solazyme SZYM 8.3 2.2 -6.19 -74.22%
8 Vestas VWS 6.3 83.2 76.85 1217.91%
Note that GTAT is currently in bankruptcy protection.
Table 2

The stock price data for the Fossil Fuel Portfolio are in Table 3, below.

Fossil Fuel Portfolio – Stock Prices
Item Company Symbol 12/21/12 09/21/16 Delta Delta %
1 BP BP 42.1 33.6 -8.51 -20.20%
2 Chevron Texaco CVX 109.7 99.6 -10.08 -9.19%
3 Conoco Philips COP 58.6 40.1 -18.54 -31.64%
4 Exxon Mobil XOM 87.2 83.3 -3.93 -4.51%
5 Royal Dutch Shell RDS.A 69.3 48.0 -21.30 -30.74%
6 Haliburton HAL 34.7 42.7 8.02 23.11%
7 Transocean RIG 45.6 9.1 -36.51 -80.00%
8 Peabody Coal BTU 395.3 1.6 -393.67 -99.60%
Table 3

The valuation data for the Sustainable Energy Portfolio are in Table 4, below.

Sustainable Energy Portfolio – Valuation
    Value Delta
Item Company Symbol 12/21/12 09/21/16 Delta Delta %
1 Cree CREE 1,000 723 -277 -27.71%
2 First Solar FSLR 1,000 1,099 99 9.90%
3 GT Adv. Tech. GTAT 1,000 7 -993 -99.28%
4 Lighting Science LSCG 1,000 107 -893 -89.33%
5 Next Era Energy NEE 1,000 1,826 826 82.63%
6 Sun Power SPWR 1,000 1,483 483 48.25%
7 Solazyme SZYM 1,000 258 -742 -74.22%
8 Vestas VWS 1,000 13,179 12,179 1217.91%
total 8,000 18,681 10,681 133.52%
Values in thousands.
Table 4

The valuation data for the Fossil Fuel Portfolio are in Table 5, below.

Fossil Fuel Portfolio – Valuations
Value Delta
Item Company Symbol 12/21/12 09/21/16 Amount Per Cent
1 BP BP 1,000 798 -202 -20.20%
2 Chevron Texaco CVX 1,000 908 -92 -9.19%
3 Conoco Philips COP 1,000 684 -316 -31.64%
4 Exxon Mobil XOM 1,000 955 -45 -4.51%
5 Royal Dutch Shell RDS.A 1,000 693 -307 -30.74%
6 Haliburton HAL 1,000 1,231 231 23.11%
7 Transocean RIG 1,000 200 -800 -80.00%
8 Peabody Coal BTU 1,000 4 -996 -99.59%
total 8,000 5,472 -2528 -31.60%
Values in thousands.
Table 5

The market capitalization data for the Sustainable Energy Portfolio are in Table 6.

Sustainable Energy Portfolio
Market Capitalization (Billions)
Item Company 12/21/12 09/21/16 Delta Delta %
1 Cree 3.90 2.54 -1.36 -34.87%
2 First Solar 2.69 3.52 0.83 30.86%
3 GT Adv. Tech. 0.36 0.00 -0.353 -98.88%
4 Lighting Science 0.15 0.00 -0.153 -100.00%
5 Next Era Energy 29.60 60.67 31.07 104.97%
6 Sun Power 0.88 1.13 0.2521 28.72%
7 Solazyme 0.52 0.18 -0.3357 -64.72%
8 Vestas 1.48 18.42 16.94 1144.59%
total 39.58 86.467 46.8904 118.48%
Table 6

The market capitalization data for the Fossil Fuel Portfolio are in Table 7.

Fossil Fuel Portfolio – Market Capitalization
Market Capitalization (Billions)
Item Company 12/21/12 09/21/16 Delta Delta %
1 BP 133.8 108.75 -25.05 -18.72%
2 Chevron Texaco 214.7 192.42 -22.28 -10.38%
3 Conoco Philips 71.2 52.04 -19.16 -26.91%
4 Exxon Mobil 397.7 349.48 -48.22 -12.12%
5 Royal Dutch Shell 216.8 204.67 -12.13 -5.60%
6 Haliburton 32.2 38.22 6.02 18.70%
7 Transocean 16.4 3.61 -12.79 -77.99%
8 Peabody Coal 6.37 0.03 -6.342 -99.56%
total 1089.2 949.22 -139.952 -12.85%
Table 7

The market capitalization data for the Big Oil portion of the Fossil Fuel Portfolio are in Table 8.

Big Oil Portfolio – Market Capitalization
Market Capitalization (Billions)
Item Company 12/21/12 09/21/16 Delta Delta %
1 BP 133.8 108.8 -25.05 -18.72%
2 Chevron Texaco 214.7 192.4 -22.28 -10.38%
3 Conoco Philips 71.2 52.0 -19.16 -26.91%
4 Exxon Mobil 397.7 349.5 -48.22 -12.12%
5 Royal Dutch Shell 216.8 204.7 -12.13 -5.60%
total 1034.2 907.4 -126.84 -12.26%
Table 8

–

  1. L. Furman, 12/21/12, Popular Logistics Sustainable Energy Portfolio
  2. L. Furman, 2/8/13, Nega-Watts, Nega-Fuel-Watts, Mega-Bucks
  3. L. Furman, 2/9/13, Gold Bricks and Sink-Holes – The Risk & Reward of Fossil Fuel, Solar & Wind
  4. L. Furman, 3/2/13, Sustainable Energy Portfolio UP 16% & Fossil Fuel Portfolio Up 1.7% – Since Dec.21, 2012
  5. L. Furman, 3/23/13, Portfolio Simulation At 3 Months: Sustainable Energy: Up 22%. Fossil Fuels: 3%
  6. L. Furman, 4/26/13, Earth Day, 2013. Oil Spills, Explosions, Fracking Business As Usual & The Stock Market Response
  7. L. Furman, 5/13/13, Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: The Trend Continues.
  8. L. Furman, 6/24/13, Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: At 6 months
  9. L. Furman, 7/22/13, Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: Sustainable Energy Doubles. Fossil Fuels increase 5.4%
  10. L. Furman, 8/22/13, Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: An Exercise in Climate Capitalism
  11. L. Furman, 9/20/13, Energy Portfolios – Investing for the Future
  12. L. Furman, 10/21/13, Sustainable Investing – Green Energy, Green Economy
  13. L. Furman, 11/22/13, Energy Portfolios: Minor Corrections, Overall Results In Line With the Trend
  14. L. Furman, 12/23/13, Energy Portfolios at One Year Sustainable Energy up 140%. Fossil Fuels up 9.85%
  15. L. Furman, 12/26/13, Energy Portfolios and Reference Indices, 2013 Summary.
  16. L. Furman, 1/22/14, Energy Portfolios: 13 Months, Sustainable Energy up 167.4%, Fossil Fuels up 9.44%
  17. L. Furman, 2/24/14, Energy Portfolios: 14 Months: Sustainable Energy up 184.4%, Fossil Fuels up 8.7%
  18. L. Furman, 3/23/14, Energy Portfolios: 15 Months: Sustainable Energy up 222.6, Fossil Fuel up 7.3%
  19. L. Furman, 4/22/14, Energy Portfolios, 16 Months: Sustainable Energy up 204.25%, Fossil Fuel up 15.38%
  20. L. Furman, 5/21/14, Energy Portfolios, 17 Months: Sustainable Energy up 211.6%, Fossil Fuels up 18.5%
  21. L. Furman, 6/24/14, Energy Portfolios, 18 Months: Sustainable Energy up 257%, Fossil Fuels up 24.6%
  22. L. Furman, 6/26/14, Energy Portfolios: 18 Months, Analysis
  23. L. Furman, 7/22/14, Energy Portfolios: 19 Months: Sustainable Energy up 222%, Fossil Fuels up 25%
  24. L. Furman, 8/23/14, Energy Portfolios: 20 Months: Sustainable Energy up 229%, Fossil Fuels up 18.4%
  25. L. Furman, 8/29 /14, Energy Portfolios: 20 Months: Conclusion & Observations
  26. L. Furman, 10/1/14, The Paradigm Is Shifting; Fossil Fuels Are Becoming Fossils
  27. L. Furman, 10/7/14, Cree: Strong Financials, But … 
  28. L. Furman, 10/21/14, Energy Portfolios: 22 Months: Sustainable Energy Up But Dropping.
  29. L. Furman, 11/27/14, Energy Portfolios: 23 Months: Sustainable Energy DOUBLED, Fossil Fuel Down (slightly).
  30. L. Furman, 12/28/14, Energy Portfolios: 24 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 91%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 10%.
  31. L. Furman, 1/27/15, Energy Portfolios: 2 Years, 1 Month, Sustainable Up 85%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 15%
  32. L. Furman, 2/23/15, Energy Portfolios: 2 Years, 2 Months, Sustainable Up 109%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 12%.
  33. L. Furman, 3/21,15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 3 Months: Sustainable up 128%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 16%.
  34. L. Furman, 4/21/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 4 Months: Sustainable up 138%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 12%.
  35. L. Furman, 5/21/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 5 Months: Sustainable up 137%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 13.7%.
  36. L. Furman, 6/21/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 6 Months: Sustainable up 128%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 18%.
  37. L. Furman, 7/23/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 7 Months: Sustainable up 121%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 24%.
  38. L. Furman, 8/22/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 8 Months: Sustainable up 102%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 34.3%.
  39. L. Furman, 8/26/15, Energy Portfolios and “The Correction“.
  40. L. Furman, 10/1/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 9 Months: Sustainable up 111.3%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 33.5%.
  41. L. Furman, 10/22/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 10 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 125%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 27%.
  42. L. Furman, 11/23/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 11 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 129%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 29.6%.
  43. L. Furman, 12/22/15, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years: Sustainable Energy up 166.6%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 36.2%
  44. L. Furman, 1/26/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 1 Month: Sustainable Energy UP 135.6%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 42.8%.
  45. L. Furman, 2/22/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 2 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 139.5%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 40.7%.
  46. L. Furman, 3/24/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 3 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 159.7%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 33.2%.
  47. L. Furman, 4/22/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 4 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 139%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 29.3%.
  48. L. Furman, 5/22/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 5 Months, Sustainable Energy Up 122%, Fossil Fuels Down 30%.
  49. L. Furman, 8/20/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 6 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 139%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 29.3%.
  50. L. Furman, 8/20/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 7 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 125%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 26%.
  51. L. Furman, 8/22/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 8 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 138%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 27%.
  52. L. Furman, 9/26/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 9 Months, Sustainable Energy up 133.5%, Fossil Fuels Down 31%.

–

A co-founder of Popular Logistics, I hold a BS and an MBA in “Managing for Sustainability” from Marlboro College, and over 20 years experience in Information Technology. Available as a speaker and consultant, I can be reached at “Popular Logistics . com” as “L Furman.”

BEIJING, CHINA - JANUARY 23: A tourist and her daughter wearing the masks visit the Tiananmen Square at dangerous levels of air pollution on January 23, 2013 in Beijing, China. The air quality in Beijing on Wednesday hit serious levels again, as smog blanketed the city. (Photo by Feng Li/Getty Images)

BEIJING, CHINA – Tiananmen Square, January 23, 2013 (Photo by Feng Li/Getty Images)

Forbes, here, and reports that China is building a  200 MW solar farm in the Gobi Desert (Clean Technica, here, IFL Science, here.

However, Chinese authorities plan for carbon emissions to peak in 2030 – that is to keep increasing until 2030.  Bellona, here, reported that Chinese authorities plan to increase renewables to 20% by 2030. This will include 200 GW of Wind, 100 GW of Solar. The plan is also to increase burning of Natural Gas to 10% of their electricity capacity, and to focus on coal with carbon capture. (Apparently the Chinese authorities don’t seem to realize how much carbon sequestration really costs. It is, as they say in New England, “wicked expensive.”)

Continue reading →

Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 1 Month: Sustainable Energy Up 135.6, Fossil Fuel DOWN 42.8%

PLPort.1601Wall St. 1/21/16. On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space.

Today it is worth an imaginary $23.48 Million because while the Fossil Fuel portfolio dropped 42.8% of it’s total value, the Sustainable Energy portfolio increased 135.6%.

This excludes the value of dividends and transaction costs, but includes the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space.

This month’s post was delayed due to preparations for and digging out from Blizzard Jonas.

Continue reading →

Energy Portfolios, 3 Years: Sustainable Energy Up 166.6%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 36.23%

PLPort.1512On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space.

As of the close of trading on December 21, 2015:

  • The Fossil Fuel portfolio was worth $5.1 Million, down 36.23% overall, down 12.08% on an annualized basis.
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio was worth $21.33 Million, up 166.6%, overall and 55.53% on an annualized basis.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 31.8% overall and 10.6% on an annualized basis, from 13,091 on 12/21/12 to close at 17,252 on 10/21/15.
  • The S&P 500 is up 41.33% overall and 13.78% on an annualized basis, from 1,430 on 12/21/12 to close at 2,021 on 10/21/15.
  • If there’s a war on coal, it’s part of the war on fossil fuel – and fossil fuel is losing.

Continue reading →

Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 10 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 125%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 27%

PLPort.1510On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space.

As of the close of trading on October 21, 2015:

  • The Fossil Fuel portfolio was worth $5.82 Million, down 27.3% overall, down 9.64% on an annualized basis.
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio was worth $18.0 Million, up 125.0%, overall and 44.13% on an annualized basis.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 31.15% overall and 10.99% on an annualized basis, from 13,091 on 12/21/12 to close at 17,169 on 10/21/15.
  • The S&P 500 is up 41.19% overall and 14.54% on an annualized basis, from 1,430 on 12/21/12 to close at 2,019 on 10/21/15.

Continue reading →

On New Jersey’s Energy Master Plan

On August 17, 2015, I attended the Board of Public Utilities, BPU, hearings regarding New Jersey’s Energy Master Plan, EMP.

The beach and cyclone at Seaside Heights, NJ, before and after Hurricane Sandy, Oct. 2014

The beach and cyclone at Seaside Heights, NJ, before and after Hurricane Sandy, Oct. 2014

A lot of people, myself included, spoke about Sandy. (Photos, click here).

Many spoke of the need for the BPU to act independently of the Governor and think long term.

No one spoke about a need or want for more fossil fuels or more nuclear.

The lobbyist from the NJ GCA, The Gasoline, C-Store, Automotive Association told the commissioners how happy he was that he installed a solar energy system on his home and said that gas stations need robust electricity. They can’t simply install emergency generators that burn diesel or gasoline.

Image of the Lillgrund, Sweden wind farm, courtesy of Siemens

Lillgrund, Sweden, courtesy Siemens

I called for: 140% clean, renewable, sustainable electricity by 2030:

  • Solar: 3.5 GW
  • Wind: 3.5 GW
  • Batteries: 1.5 GW
  • Biofuel: 1.5 GW

Including:

  • 250 MW of solar in a 100 KW array on each of the 2500 public schools,
  • 125 MW of battery backups, in a 50 KW Tesla Powerwall or equivalent system on each public school,
  • These would give us emergency shelters, with power, in every community in New Jersey.
  • A Capstone microturbine, or the equivalent at each sewage treatment plant.

These, I explained, would make the grid more resilient.

I also added that Wall Street appears to be abandoning fossil fuels. This observation is based on the data collected from Dec. 12, 2012, and published on Popular Logistics, here, that show that for the period from Dec. 21, 2012 to July 21, 2015,

  • Sustainable Energy: Up 121%, 46.7% per year.
  • Fossil Fuel: DOWN 25% overall, -9.26% per year,
  • S&P 500: Up 47.54%, 18.41% per year.

The full text of my prepared remarks is below:

Continue reading →

In RE Carbon Dioxide – The EPA is Listening

Hurricane Sandy, NOAA handout satellite image taken on October 27, 2012.

Hurricane Sandy, via satellite, 10/27/12, NOAA

The people at the Environmental Protection Agency understand the issue of increasing atmospheric Carbon Dioxide above 350 PPM. And EPA is listening. EPA has held two public comment periods in New York City on 10/23/13 and will hold nine additional public comment hearings across the country to “solicit ideas and input from the public and stakeholders about the best Clean Air Act approaches to reducing carbon pollution from existing power plants.”

Boston, MA 11/04/13 Philadelphia, PA 11/08/13
Chicago, IL 11/08/13 San Francisco, CA 11/05/13
Dallas, TX 11/07/13 Seattle, WA 11/07/13
Denver, CO 10/30/13 Washington, DC 11/07/13
Lenexa, KS 11/04/13

 

Click HERE to register.

And as President Theodore Roosevelt said, “Speak softly …”

Continue reading →

Sustainable Investing: Green Energy, Green Economy

PLEP_13.10.18

On Dec. 21, 2012, with $16 Imaginary Million, I created an investment simulation. I invested $1.0 Million in imaginary money in each of eight fossil fuel companies and eight sustainable energy companies. As of the close of trading 10 months later, Friday, Oct. 18, 2013, the trend, clearly evident after three months, in March of this year, continues.

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 17.64% from 12/21/12.
  • The S&P 500 is up 22.03%.
  • The Fossil Fuel Portfolio, dramatically underperforming the reference indices, is up 7.47%.
  • The Popular Logistics Sustainable Energy portfolio is up 156.14%.

As discussed last month, in “Investing for the Future,” the important question is:  Is this a trend or a bubble?  As I wrote, I think it’s a trend.

Jeremy Grantham, the “G” in GMO, invests with the expectation that all things being equal, a company’s valuation tends toward their arithmetic mean values. (Note that Mr. Grantham has not been contacted for this study.) But note that disruptive technologies are, by definition, game changers. Disruptive tech alters the landscape. If you looked at the airline, automobile and railroad industries over the 20th Century, automobiles and airlines waxed while railroads waned.

The future may be similar for Fossil Fuels and Sustainable Energy. The Market Capitalization of the Fossil Fuel portfolio is $1.13 Trillion. The Market Capitalization of the Sustainable Energy Portfolio is $0.06 Trillion ($60 Billion).  The value of the companies of the Sustainable Energy portfolio is roughly 5.3% of the market capitalization of the companies of the Fossil Fuel portfolio. It can almost be described as a rounding error compared to the value of the Fossil Fuel portfolio. But if Mr. Grantham’s analysis is valid, and you aggregate the portfolios into one called “Energy” as opposed to a “Fossil Fuel” portfolio and a “Sustainable Energy” portfolio, then the shareholders of these various companies are in for an interesting few years.

Continue reading →

Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: The Trend Continues.

 

Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios

The trend is clear – if 4 1/2 months is enough to establish a trend – the Sustainable Energy portfolio is up 58.78% from 12/21/12 while the Fossil Fuel portfolio is only up 6.71%. The Dow is up 15.49% and the S&P 500 is up 14.24% in that same period.

Is it because Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide has reached 400 PPM? (NPR / NY Times) Is Wall Street reacting because Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, and other investment banks and hedge funds are hiring analysts from Greenpeace or people like me with MBAs in Sustainability from Marlboro, the Presidio, and the Bainbridge Institute? Continue reading →

Earth Day, 2013. Oil Spills, Explosions, Fracking Business As Usual & The Stock Market Response

PLPort_Results.2013.04

Wall St. NYC, April 26, 2013. Monday, April 22, 2013 was Earth Day.  At the close of trading Thursday, April 25, 2013,  as compared to my reference date of Dec. 21, 2012, the Dow Jones Industrials was up 12.3% , the S&P 500 closed up 10.84%, the “Popular Logistics Fossil Fuel Reference Portfolio was up 1.8% and the Popular Logistics Sustainable Energy portfolio was up 34.85%. (This is in line with the trend noted in my previous post, March 23, 2013., in the series that began Dec. 21, 2012.) And Shell Oil has temporarily suspended exploration and drilling operations in the Arctic. (Click here for Forbes). The stock portfolio data are summarized below, in Table 1. That’s the good news (unless you’re long on fossil fuels).

Here’s the bad news. “Fracking” is widespread and unregulated (click here).  An oil spill dumped 500,000 gallons from Exxon pipeline onto Mayflower, Arkansas and into Lake Conway (click here).  A fatal fire & explosion in West, Texas left 35 dead, probably including 16 firefighters and emergency responders (click here).  A fire and multiple explosions on gasoline transport barges docked in Mobile, Alabama injured 3 (click here).  Continue reading →

Mayflower Oil Spill – Economic Externalities

Image showing oil covering lake at Dawson's Cove, Mayflower, Arkansas

Image showing oil covering lake at Dawson’s Cove, Mayflower, Arkansas

Back in the mid-1970’s, Amory Lovins, currently with the Rocky Mountain Institute, said “The cheapest unit of energy is the one you don’t need to buy.” He called this the “Nega-Watt.” We now know that the Nega-Watt is also the cleanest unit of energy. And the second cheapest – and second cleanest – is the one which doesn’t need fuel and doesn’t create waste, which might be called the “Nega-Fuel-Watt” or “Nega-Waste-Watt.”

Edward McAllister, reported in Reuters, covered by Yahoo News,

Warren Andrews had just finished putting up balloons for his stepdaughter’s 18th birthday party at their suburban home in Mayflower, Arkansas, when his wife came inside and said something was wrong.

After stepping out of his house, and taking one glance, he immediately dialed 911.

“I don’t know what’s going on, but I’ve got a river of oil coming down the street at me,” Andrews told the operator.

Five minutes later, the slick of noxious black crude spewing from a ruptured Exxon Mobil pipeline was eight feet wide, six inches deep and growing fast.

We now know that an Exxon Mobil pipeline, like the proposed Keystone Pipeline, carrying Canadian crude oil ruptured on Friday, March 29, 2913, spilling an estimated 500,000 gallons of oil into the grounds of the town. 500,000 gallons is roughly 11,000 barrels.

Continue reading →

What Next? – For the 21st Century

Barack-Obamajoe-biden

What should we do now?

  1. Strengthen the safety net.
  2. Reverse the Citizens United and Florence v Burlington rulings.
  3. Place reasonable restrictions on Second Amendment rights, as  reasonable restrictions exist on First Amendment rights. And tax properties and income of religious institutions.
  4. Address Climate Change.
  5. Develop a Renewable & Sustainable Energy Infrastructure – Clean & Green within 15.

As President Obama said, in his Second Inauguration, (White House . Gov / The Atlantic)

“The commitments we make to each other …  do not sap our initiative; they strengthen us.  They do not make us a nation of takers; they free us to take the risks that make this country great.

“We will respond to the threat of climate change, knowing that the failure to do so would betray our children and future generations. 

“The path towards sustainable energy sources will be long and sometimes difficult.  But America cannot resist this transition, we must lead it. “

Continue reading →

Solar Power & Electric Utilities: Is The Paradigm Shifting?

Ground Mounted Array.

The 16-module solar array pictured above was built in 2005.  It probably has 2.5 Kilowatt (KW) to 2.8 KW of nameplate capacity. In New Jersey, residential solar systems range from 3 KW to 30 KW. Most are between 4 and 10 KW. Commercial systems range from 8KW to 200 KW. Utility scale systems are in the 10 Mega Watt (MW) to 550 MW range. In 2005, the costs for small scale residential systems were around $8.50 / watt, exclusive of any incentives. Today it is probably around half that, and cheaper for the larger utility scale systems. 1.0 MW system would require 4,000 modules of 250 watts each. The system pictured above requires about 50 square feet of land.As illustrated by the photo of the Topaz array, below, a 550 MW system, like Topaz, would require 2.2 million modules, and would cover a lot of ground.

First Solar Topaz

First Solar, FSLR, a $2.8 Billion company, and Sunpower, SPWR, an $840 Million company, two of the pillars of what is left of the American solar energy industry, made some interesting statements in their 2011 annual reports: Continue reading →