The discovery of graphene by Andre Geim and Konstantin Novoselov, for which they won the 2010 Nobel Prize in Physics ( details at Nobel.org and at Graphene-Info) may be the most significant non-medical scientific event since the discovery or invention of the transistor in 1947. Graphene is a two-dimensional lattice of carbon – think of a flexible and one atom thick flat diamond – with very interesting physical and quantum properties.
And it may change the world.
Continue reading
Image of Block Island Wind, off of Rhode Island
As noted in the Asbury Park Press, here, Orsted (DKK, DNNGY). with support from PSEG, will build Ocean Wind, a 1.11 GW farm about 15 miles east of Atlantic City. “Ocean Wind” should come online in 2024. NJ’s Board of Public Utilities, BPU approved the $1.6 Billion, $1.44 per watt plan. (Press Release. Financial Information.)
That’s about twice the nameplate capacity of the Oyster Creek nuclear power plant, built in the late 1960’s and turned off in 2018, at 12.8% of the cost of new nuclear.
Back in 2008, NASA published this on Global Ocean Wind Energy Potential.
Ocean Wind will power roughly 500,000 homes beginning in 2024. NJ Gov. Phil Murphy set the state’s Energy Master Plan to build 3.5 GW offshore wind to power 1.5 million homes by 2030.
Meanwhile, in Georgia, the newest nuclear power plants, the 2.234 GW Vogtle 3 and 4, the first new nuclear reactors built in the United States in 30 years, are now 6 years late and estimated to cost $28 billion. (Taxpayer.net). That is a cost overrun of $14 billion, 100% over the initial cost of $14 billion. (Atlanta Journal Constitution, Power).
New nuclear is 8.7 times the cost of new wind power capacity. And nuclear needs fuel, waste management, and the safety and security concerns with nuclear power can not be understated.
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A co-founder of Popular Logistics, I hold an MBA in “Managing for Sustainability” from Marlboro College and a Bachelor’s of Science in Biology from the City University of New York College of Staten Island. I also hold a PMI’s PMP and CompTIA’sNetwork+ certifications. Available as a speaker and consultant, I can be reached at “Popular Logistics . com” as “L Furman.”
On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars into 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space, $1.0 Million into each. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space,
In recent months the Sustainable Energy portfolio has dropped and the Fossil Fuel portfolio has increased. However, this may prove to be a short term correction that has more to do with macro-geopolitical events emanating from Washington, DC than global macroeconomic factors.
As of the close of trading 59 months later,
In Addition
The details are below.
At 4 Years, 5 Months:
On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space,
As of the close of trading on May 19, 2017:
On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space,
As of the close of trading on March 21, 2017:
On Dec. 21, 2012, I imagined $16 Million dollars in equal investments in 16 real energy companies; eight Sustainable Energy companies and eight fossil fuel companies. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space.
As of the close of trading on September 21, 2016:
The Sustainable Energy portfolio is composed of Cree (CREE) and Lighting Sciences (LSCG) in the LED space, GT Advanced Tech (GTAT), which at the time made solar ovens for cooking PV wafers. First Solar (FSLR) and Sunpower Corp. (SPWR) in the solar space, Vestas (VWSYF), a wind company, Solazyme (SZYM) a biofuel company and Next Era Energy (NEE), a utility.
The fossil fuel companies are the oil companies British Petroleum (BP), Chevron Texaco (CVX), Conoco Phillips (COP), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and RD Shell (RDS.A), the coal company Peabody Coal (BTU), and Haliburton (HAL) and Transocean (RIG), companies in the offshore oil and oil and gas drilling service industries.
The data are summarized beginning in Table 1, below.
| Summary Data | |||||
| Portfolio | 12/21/12 | 09/21/16 | Delta | Delta % | Annualized |
| Sustainable Energy | 8,000,000 | 18,681,471 | 10,681,471 | 133.52% | 35.60% |
| Fossil Fuel | 8,000,000 | 5,515,027 | -2,484,973 | -31.06% | -8.28% |
| DJI | 13,091 | 18,294 | 5,203 | 39.74% | 10.60% |
| S&P 500 | 1,430 | 2,163 | 733 | 51.26% | 13.67% |
| Table 1 | |||||
The stock price data for the Sustainable Energy portfolio are in Table 2, below.
| Sustainable Energy Portfolio – Stock Prices | ||||||
| Item | Company | Symbol | 12/21/12 | 09/21/16 | Delta | Delta % |
| 1 | Cree | CREE | 34.0 | 24.6 | -9.42 | -27.71% |
| 2 | First Solar | FSLR | 31.0 | 34.1 | 3.07 | 9.90% |
| 3 | GT Adv. Tech. | GTAT | 3.0 | 0.0 | -2.98 | -99.28% |
| 4 | Lighting Science | LSCG | 0.8 | 0.1 | -0.67 | -89.33% |
| 5 | Next Era Energy | NEE | 70.0 | 127.8 | 57.84 | 82.63% |
| 6 | Sun Power | SPWR | 5.4 | 8.1 | 2.62 | 48.25% |
| 7 | Solazyme | SZYM | 8.3 | 2.2 | -6.19 | -74.22% |
| 8 | Vestas | VWS | 6.3 | 83.2 | 76.85 | 1217.91% |
| Note that GTAT is currently in bankruptcy protection. | ||||||
| Table 2 | ||||||
The stock price data for the Fossil Fuel Portfolio are in Table 3, below.
| Fossil Fuel Portfolio – Stock Prices | ||||||
| Item | Company | Symbol | 12/21/12 | 09/21/16 | Delta | Delta % |
| 1 | BP | BP | 42.1 | 33.6 | -8.51 | -20.20% |
| 2 | Chevron Texaco | CVX | 109.7 | 99.6 | -10.08 | -9.19% |
| 3 | Conoco Philips | COP | 58.6 | 40.1 | -18.54 | -31.64% |
| 4 | Exxon Mobil | XOM | 87.2 | 83.3 | -3.93 | -4.51% |
| 5 | Royal Dutch Shell | RDS.A | 69.3 | 48.0 | -21.30 | -30.74% |
| 6 | Haliburton | HAL | 34.7 | 42.7 | 8.02 | 23.11% |
| 7 | Transocean | RIG | 45.6 | 9.1 | -36.51 | -80.00% |
| 8 | Peabody Coal | BTU | 395.3 | 1.6 | -393.67 | -99.60% |
| Table 3 | ||||||
The valuation data for the Sustainable Energy Portfolio are in Table 4, below.
| Sustainable Energy Portfolio – Valuation | ||||||
| Value | Delta | |||||
| Item | Company | Symbol | 12/21/12 | 09/21/16 | Delta | Delta % |
| 1 | Cree | CREE | 1,000 | 723 | -277 | -27.71% |
| 2 | First Solar | FSLR | 1,000 | 1,099 | 99 | 9.90% |
| 3 | GT Adv. Tech. | GTAT | 1,000 | 7 | -993 | -99.28% |
| 4 | Lighting Science | LSCG | 1,000 | 107 | -893 | -89.33% |
| 5 | Next Era Energy | NEE | 1,000 | 1,826 | 826 | 82.63% |
| 6 | Sun Power | SPWR | 1,000 | 1,483 | 483 | 48.25% |
| 7 | Solazyme | SZYM | 1,000 | 258 | -742 | -74.22% |
| 8 | Vestas | VWS | 1,000 | 13,179 | 12,179 | 1217.91% |
| total | 8,000 | 18,681 | 10,681 | 133.52% | ||
| Values in thousands. | ||||||
| Table 4 | ||||||
The valuation data for the Fossil Fuel Portfolio are in Table 5, below.
| Fossil Fuel Portfolio – Valuations | ||||||
| Value | Delta | |||||
| Item | Company | Symbol | 12/21/12 | 09/21/16 | Amount | Per Cent |
| 1 | BP | BP | 1,000 | 798 | -202 | -20.20% |
| 2 | Chevron Texaco | CVX | 1,000 | 908 | -92 | -9.19% |
| 3 | Conoco Philips | COP | 1,000 | 684 | -316 | -31.64% |
| 4 | Exxon Mobil | XOM | 1,000 | 955 | -45 | -4.51% |
| 5 | Royal Dutch Shell | RDS.A | 1,000 | 693 | -307 | -30.74% |
| 6 | Haliburton | HAL | 1,000 | 1,231 | 231 | 23.11% |
| 7 | Transocean | RIG | 1,000 | 200 | -800 | -80.00% |
| 8 | Peabody Coal | BTU | 1,000 | 4 | -996 | -99.59% |
| total | 8,000 | 5,472 | -2528 | -31.60% | ||
| Values in thousands. | ||||||
| Table 5 | ||||||
The market capitalization data for the Sustainable Energy Portfolio are in Table 6.
| Sustainable Energy Portfolio | |||||
| Market Capitalization (Billions) | |||||
| Item | Company | 12/21/12 | 09/21/16 | Delta | Delta % |
| 1 | Cree | 3.90 | 2.54 | -1.36 | -34.87% |
| 2 | First Solar | 2.69 | 3.52 | 0.83 | 30.86% |
| 3 | GT Adv. Tech. | 0.36 | 0.00 | -0.353 | -98.88% |
| 4 | Lighting Science | 0.15 | 0.00 | -0.153 | -100.00% |
| 5 | Next Era Energy | 29.60 | 60.67 | 31.07 | 104.97% |
| 6 | Sun Power | 0.88 | 1.13 | 0.2521 | 28.72% |
| 7 | Solazyme | 0.52 | 0.18 | -0.3357 | -64.72% |
| 8 | Vestas | 1.48 | 18.42 | 16.94 | 1144.59% |
| total | 39.58 | 86.467 | 46.8904 | 118.48% | |
| Table 6 | |||||
The market capitalization data for the Fossil Fuel Portfolio are in Table 7.
| Fossil Fuel Portfolio – Market Capitalization | |||||
| Market Capitalization (Billions) | |||||
| Item | Company | 12/21/12 | 09/21/16 | Delta | Delta % |
| 1 | BP | 133.8 | 108.75 | -25.05 | -18.72% |
| 2 | Chevron Texaco | 214.7 | 192.42 | -22.28 | -10.38% |
| 3 | Conoco Philips | 71.2 | 52.04 | -19.16 | -26.91% |
| 4 | Exxon Mobil | 397.7 | 349.48 | -48.22 | -12.12% |
| 5 | Royal Dutch Shell | 216.8 | 204.67 | -12.13 | -5.60% |
| 6 | Haliburton | 32.2 | 38.22 | 6.02 | 18.70% |
| 7 | Transocean | 16.4 | 3.61 | -12.79 | -77.99% |
| 8 | Peabody Coal | 6.37 | 0.03 | -6.342 | -99.56% |
| total | 1089.2 | 949.22 | -139.952 | -12.85% | |
| Table 7 | |||||
The market capitalization data for the Big Oil portion of the Fossil Fuel Portfolio are in Table 8.
| Big Oil Portfolio – Market Capitalization | |||||
| Market Capitalization (Billions) | |||||
| Item | Company | 12/21/12 | 09/21/16 | Delta | Delta % |
| 1 | BP | 133.8 | 108.8 | -25.05 | -18.72% |
| 2 | Chevron Texaco | 214.7 | 192.4 | -22.28 | -10.38% |
| 3 | Conoco Philips | 71.2 | 52.0 | -19.16 | -26.91% |
| 4 | Exxon Mobil | 397.7 | 349.5 | -48.22 | -12.12% |
| 5 | Royal Dutch Shell | 216.8 | 204.7 | -12.13 | -5.60% |
| total | 1034.2 | 907.4 | -126.84 | -12.26% | |
| Table 8 | |||||
–
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A co-founder of Popular Logistics, I hold a BS and an MBA in “Managing for Sustainability” from Marlboro College, and over 20 years experience in Information Technology. Available as a speaker and consultant, I can be reached at “Popular Logistics . com” as “L Furman.”
On Dec. 21, 2012, I imagined $16 Million dollars in equal investments in 16 real energy companies; $1.0 M in each company in each of eight companies in the Sustainable Energy space and $1.0 M each of eight companies in the fossil fuel space. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of various companies in the sustainable energy space and coal industry.
As of the close of trading on June 21, 2016:
On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space, and one company in the fossil fuel space.
The big news this month is the bankruptcy filing of Peabody Coal (Bloomberg, here). Continue reading
BEIJING, CHINA – Tiananmen Square, January 23, 2013 (Photo by Feng Li/Getty Images)
Forbes, here, and reports that China is building a 200 MW solar farm in the Gobi Desert (Clean Technica, here, IFL Science, here.
However, Chinese authorities plan for carbon emissions to peak in 2030 – that is to keep increasing until 2030. Bellona, here, reported that Chinese authorities plan to increase renewables to 20% by 2030. This will include 200 GW of Wind, 100 GW of Solar. The plan is also to increase burning of Natural Gas to 10% of their electricity capacity, and to focus on coal with carbon capture. (Apparently the Chinese authorities don’t seem to realize how much carbon sequestration really costs. It is, as they say in New England, “wicked expensive.”)
Wall St. 1/21/16. On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space.
Today it is worth an imaginary $23.48 Million because while the Fossil Fuel portfolio dropped 42.8% of it’s total value, the Sustainable Energy portfolio increased 135.6%.
This excludes the value of dividends and transaction costs, but includes the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space.
This month’s post was delayed due to preparations for and digging out from Blizzard Jonas.
On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space.
As of the close of trading on December 21, 2015:
On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space.
As of the close of trading on October 21, 2015:
On August 17, 2015, I attended the Board of Public Utilities, BPU, hearings regarding New Jersey’s Energy Master Plan, EMP.
The beach and cyclone at Seaside Heights, NJ, before and after Hurricane Sandy, Oct. 2014
A lot of people, myself included, spoke about Sandy. (Photos, click here).
Many spoke of the need for the BPU to act independently of the Governor and think long term.
No one spoke about a need or want for more fossil fuels or more nuclear.
The lobbyist from the NJ GCA, The Gasoline, C-Store, Automotive Association told the commissioners how happy he was that he installed a solar energy system on his home and said that gas stations need robust electricity. They can’t simply install emergency generators that burn diesel or gasoline.
Lillgrund, Sweden, courtesy Siemens
I called for: 140% clean, renewable, sustainable electricity by 2030:
Including:
These, I explained, would make the grid more resilient.
I also added that Wall Street appears to be abandoning fossil fuels. This observation is based on the data collected from Dec. 12, 2012, and published on Popular Logistics, here, that show that for the period from Dec. 21, 2012 to July 21, 2015,
The full text of my prepared remarks is below:
On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space.
On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; Eight in the Sustainable Energy space and eight in the fossil fuel space. Between December 21, 2012 and October 21, 2014
By 10/15/14, GT Advanced Tech had filed for bankruptcy protection, and other stocks in the portfolio dropped to points near their Dec. 2012. The portfolio as a whole dropped 55% from Sept. 19, 2014. Stay tuned, and keep your seat belt on. Continue reading
