Energy Portfolios, 4 Years, 3 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 120.9%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 25.1%

by L J Furman, MBA on April 23, 2017

in Connecting the Dots, Energy Economics, Solar, Sustainable, Sustainable Investing, Wind Power

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On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 Million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; $8.0 in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 in the fossil fuel space. Excluding the value of dividends and transaction costs, but including the bankruptcy or crash of three companies in the sustainable energy space,

As of the close of trading on March 21, 2017:

  • The Fossil Fuel portfolio went from $8.0 Million to $5.995 Million, down 25.05% overall, down 5.9% on an annualized basis.
  • The Sustainable Energy portfolio went from $8 Million to $17.7 Million, up 120.9%, overall and 28.43% on an annualized basis.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 58.45% overall and 13.75% on an annualized basis, went from 13.091 on 12/21/12 to 20,743 on 3/21/17.
  • The S&P 500 is up 65.38% overall and 15.38% on an annualized basis, from 1,430 on 12/21/12 to close at 2,365 on 3/21/17.

The Sustainable Energy portfolio includes First Solar (FSLR) and Sunpower Corp. (SPWR) in the solar space, Vestas (VWSYF), a wind company, Next Era Energy (NEE), a utility, Solazyme (SZYM) a biofuel company, Cree (CREE) and Lighting Sciences (LSCG) in the LED space and GT Advanced Tech (GTAT), which in Dec. 2012 made solar ovens for cooking PV wafers.

The fossil fuel companies are the oil companies British Petroleum (BP), Chevron Texaco (CVX), Conoco Phillips (COP), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and RD Shell (RDS.A), the coal company Peabody Coal (BTU), and Haliburton (HAL) and Transocean (RIG), companies in the offshore oil and oil and gas drilling service industries.

The data are summarized beginning in Table 1, below.

Summary Data
Portfolio 12/21/12 03/21/17 Delta Delta % Annualized
Sustainable Energy 8,000,000 17,667,654 9,667,654 120.85% 28.43%
Fossil Fuel 8,000,000 5,995,693 -2,004,307 -25.05% -5.90%
DJI 13,091 20,743 7,652 58.45% 13.75%
S&P 500 1,430 2,365 935 65.38% 15.38%
NASDAQ 3,012 5,251 2,239 74.34% 17.49%
Table 1

The stock price data for the Sustainable Energy portfolio are in Table 2, below.

Sustainable Energy Portfolio – Stock Prices
Item Company Symbol 12/21/12 03/21/17 Delta Delta %
1 Cree CREE 34.0 26.2 -7.85 -23.09%
2 First Solar FSLR 31.0 29.0 -1.96 -6.32%
3 GT Adv. Tech. GTAT 3.0 0.0 -2.98 -99.28%
4 Lighting Science LSCG 0.8 0.1 -0.69 -92.00%
5 Next Era Energy NEE 70.0 132.0 62.00 88.57%
6 Sun Power SPWR 5.4 6.2 0.76 14.00%
7 Solazyme SZYM 8.3 2.2 -6.19 -74.22%
8 Vestas VWS 6.3 79.5 73.14 1159.11%
Note that GTAT is currently in bankruptcy protection.
Table 2

The stock price data for the Fossil Fuel Portfolio are in Table 3, below.

Fossil Fuel Portfolio – Stock Prices
Item Company Symbol 12/21/12 03/21/17 Delta Delta %
1 BP BP 42.1 34.2 -7.88 -18.71%
2 Chevron Texaco CVX 109.7 108.0 -1.67 -1.52%
3 Conoco Philips COP 58.6 45.8 -12.77 -21.79%
4 Exxon Mobil XOM 87.2 81.8 -5.40 -6.19%
5 Royal Dutch Shell RDS.A 69.3 52.7 -16.56 -23.90%
6 Haliburton HAL 34.7 50.2 15.44 44.48%
7 Transocean RIG 45.6 12.2 -33.43 -73.25%
8 Peabody Coal BTU 395.3 1.7 -393.51 -99.56%
Table 3

The valuation data for the Sustainable Energy Portfolio are in Table 4, below.

Sustainable Energy Portfolio – Valuation
    Value Delta
Item Company Symbol 12/21/12 03/21/17 Delta Delta %
1 Cree CREE 1,000 769 -231 -23.09%
2 First Solar FSLR 1,000 937 -63 -6.32%
3 GT Adv. Tech. GTAT 1,000 7 -993 -99.28%
4 Lighting Science LSCG 1,000 80 -920 -92.00%
5 Next Era Energy NEE 1,000 1,886 886 88.57%
6 Sun Power SPWR 1,000 1,140 140 14.00%
7 Solazyme SZYM 1,000 258 -742 -74.22%
8 Vestas VWS 1,000 12,591 11,591 1159.11%
total 8,000 17,668 9,668 120.85%
Values in thousands.
Table 4

The valuation data for the Fossil Fuel Portfolio are in Table 5, below.

Fossil Fuel Portfolio – Valuations
Value Delta
Item Company Symbol 12/21/12 03/21/17 Amount Per Cent
1 BP BP 1,000 813 -187 -18.71%
2 Chevron Texaco CVX 1,000 985 -15 -1.52%
3 Conoco Philips COP 1,000 782 -218 -21.79%
4 Exxon Mobil XOM 1,000 938 -62 -6.19%
5 Royal Dutch Shell RDS.A 1,000 761 -239 -23.90%
6 Haliburton HAL 1,000 1,445 445 44.48%
7 Transocean RIG 1,000 268 -732 -73.25%
8 Peabody Coal BTU 1,000 4 -996 -99.55%
total 8,000 5,996 -2004 -25.05%
Values in thousands.
Table 5

The market capitalization data for the Sustainable Energy Portfolio are in Table 6.

Sustainable Energy Portfolio
Market Capitalization (Billions)
Item Company 12/21/12 03/21/17 Delta Delta %
1 Cree 3.90 0.82 -3.08 -78.97%
2 First Solar 2.69 2.65 -0.04 -1.49%
3 GT Adv. Tech. 0.36 0.00 -0.35 -98.88%
4 Lighting Science 0.15 0.00 -0.15 -100.00%
5 Next Era Energy 29.60 55.37 25.77 87.06%
6 Sun Power 0.88 0.98 0.1 11.06%
7 Solazyme 0.52 0.18 -0.34 -64.72%
8 Vestas 1.48 14.09 12.61 852.03%
total 39.58 74.09 34.52 87.21%
Table 6

The market capitalization data for the Fossil Fuel Portfolio are in Table 7.

Fossil Fuel Portfolio – Market Capitalization
Market Capitalization (Billions)
Item Company 12/21/12 03/21/17 Delta Delta %
1 BP 133.8 118.90 -14.9 -11.14%
2 Chevron Texaco 214.7 217.59 2.89 1.35%
3 Conoco Philips 71.2 63.43 -7.77 -10.91%
4 Exxon Mobil 397.7 354.55 -43.15 -10.85%
5 Royal Dutch Shell 216.8 228.55 11.75 5.42%
6 Haliburton 32.2 49.97 17.77 55.19%
7 Transocean 16.4 5.60 -10.8 -65.85%
8 Peabody Coal 6.37 0.03 -6.34 -99.53%
total 1089.2 1038.62 -50.55 -4.64%
Table 7

The market capitalization data for the Big Oil portion of the Fossil Fuel Portfolio are in Table 8.

Big Oil Portfolio – Market Capitalization
Market Capitalization (Billions)
Item Company 12/21/12 03/21/17 Delta Delta %
1 BP 133.8 118.9 -14.9 -11.14%
2 Chevron Texaco 214.7 217.6 2.89 1.35%
3 Conoco Philips 71.2 63.4 -7.77 -10.91%
4 Exxon Mobil 397.7 354.6 -43.15 -10.85%
5 Royal Dutch Shell 216.8 228.6 11.75 5.42%
total 1034.2 983.0 -51.18 -4.95%
Table 8

Posts in this series:

  1. L. Furman, 12/21/12, Popular Logistics Sustainable Energy Portfolio
  2. L. Furman, 2/8/13, Nega-Watts, Nega-Fuel-Watts, Mega-Bucks
  3. L. Furman, 2/9/13, Gold Bricks and Sink-Holes – The Risk & Reward of Fossil Fuel, Solar & Wind
  4. L. Furman, 3/2/13, Sustainable Energy Portfolio UP 16% & Fossil Fuel Portfolio Up 1.7% – Since Dec.21, 2012
  5. L. Furman, 3/23/13, Portfolio Simulation At 3 Months: Sustainable Energy: Up 22%. Fossil Fuels: 3%
  6. L. Furman, 4/26/13, Earth Day, 2013. Oil Spills, Explosions, Fracking Business As Usual & The Stock Market Response
  7. L. Furman, 5/13/13, Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: The Trend Continues.
  8. L. Furman, 6/24/13, Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: At 6 months
  9. L. Furman, 7/22/13, Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: Sustainable Energy Doubles. Fossil Fuels increase 5.4%
  10. L. Furman, 8/22/13, Popular Logistics Energy Portfolios: An Exercise in Climate Capitalism
  11. L. Furman, 9/20/13, Energy Portfolios – Investing for the Future
  12. L. Furman, 10/21/13, Sustainable Investing – Green Energy, Green Economy
  13. L. Furman, 11/22/13, Energy Portfolios: Minor Corrections, Overall Results In Line With the Trend
  14. L. Furman, 12/23/13, Energy Portfolios at One Year Sustainable Energy up 140%. Fossil Fuels up 9.85%
  15. L. Furman, 12/26/13, Energy Portfolios and Reference Indices, 2013 Summary.
  16. L. Furman, 1/22/14, Energy Portfolios: 13 Months, Sustainable Energy up 167.4%, Fossil Fuels up 9.44%
  17. L. Furman, 2/24/14, Energy Portfolios: 14 Months: Sustainable Energy up 184.4%, Fossil Fuels up 8.7%
  18. L. Furman, 3/23/14, Energy Portfolios: 15 Months: Sustainable Energy up 222.6, Fossil Fuel up 7.3%
  19. L. Furman, 4/22/14, Energy Portfolios, 16 Months: Sustainable Energy up 204.25%, Fossil Fuel up 15.38%
  20. L. Furman, 5/21/14, Energy Portfolios, 17 Months: Sustainable Energy up 211.6%, Fossil Fuels up 18.5%
  21. L. Furman, 6/24/14, Energy Portfolios, 18 Months: Sustainable Energy up 257%, Fossil Fuels up 24.6%
  22. L. Furman, 6/26/14, Energy Portfolios: 18 Months, Analysis
  23. L. Furman, 7/22/14, Energy Portfolios: 19 Months: Sustainable Energy up 222%, Fossil Fuels up 25%
  24. L. Furman, 8/23/14, Energy Portfolios: 20 Months: Sustainable Energy up 229%, Fossil Fuels up 18.4%
  25. L. Furman, 8/29 /14, Energy Portfolios: 20 Months: Conclusion & Observations
  26. L. Furman, 10/1/14, The Paradigm Is Shifting; Fossil Fuels Are Becoming Fossils
  27. L. Furman, 10/7/14, Cree: Strong Financials, But … 
  28. L. Furman, 10/21/14, Energy Portfolios: 22 Months: Sustainable Energy Up But Dropping.
  29. L. Furman, 11/27/14, Energy Portfolios: 23 Months: Sustainable Energy DOUBLED, Fossil Fuel Down (slightly).
  30. L. Furman, 12/28/14, Energy Portfolios: 24 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 91%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 10%.
  31. L. Furman, 1/27/15, Energy Portfolios: 2 Years, 1 Month, Sustainable Up 85%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 15%
  32. L. Furman, 2/23/15, Energy Portfolios: 2 Years, 2 Months, Sustainable Up 109%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 12%.
  33. L. Furman, 3/21,15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 3 Months: Sustainable up 128%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 16%.
  34. L. Furman, 4/21/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 4 Months: Sustainable up 138%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 12%.
  35. L. Furman, 5/21/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 5 Months: Sustainable up 137%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 13.7%.
  36. L. Furman, 6/21/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 6 Months: Sustainable up 128%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 18%.
  37. L. Furman, 7/23/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 7 Months: Sustainable up 121%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 24%.
  38. L. Furman, 8/22/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 8 Months: Sustainable up 102%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 34.3%.
  39. L. Furman, 8/26/15, Energy Portfolios and “The Correction“.
  40. L. Furman, 10/1/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 9 Months: Sustainable up 111.3%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 33.5%.
  41. L. Furman, 10/22/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 10 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 125%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 27%.
  42. L. Furman, 11/23/15, Energy Portfolios, 2 Years 11 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 129%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 29.6%.
  43. L. Furman, 12/22/15, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years: Sustainable Energy up 166.6%, Fossil Fuel DOWN 36.2%
  44. L. Furman, 1/26/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 1 Month: Sustainable Energy UP 135.6%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 42.8%.
  45. L. Furman, 2/22/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 2 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 139.5%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 40.7%.
  46. L. Furman, 3/24/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 3 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 159.7%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 33.2%.
  47. L. Furman, 4/22/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 4 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 139%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 29.3%.
  48. L. Furman, 5/22/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 5 Months, Sustainable Energy Up 122%, Fossil Fuels Down 30%.
  49. L. Furman, 8/20/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 6 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 139%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 29.3%.
  50. L. Furman, 8/20/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 7 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 125%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 26%.
  51. L. Furman, 8/22/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 8 Months: Sustainable Energy Up 138%, Fossil Fuels DOWN 27%.
  52. L. Furman, 9/26/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 9 Months: Sustainable Energy up 133.5%, Fossil Fuels Down 31%.
  53. L. Furman, 10/23/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 10 Months: Sustainable Energy up 130%, Fossil Fuels Down 26%
  54. L. Furman, 11/25/16, Energy Portfolios, 3 Years, 11 Months: Sustainable Energy up 93%, Fossil Fuels Down 20%
  55. L. Furman, 1/1/17, Energy Portfolios: 4 Years: Sustainable Energy up 130%, Fossil Fuels Down 26%
  56. L. Furman, 1/23/17, Energy Portfolios: 4 Years, 1 Month: Sustainable Energy Effectively Doubled, Fossil Fuels Down 18.3%.
  57. L. Furman, 3/5/17, Energy Portfolios: 4 Years, 2 Months: Sustainable Energy up 117.25%, Fossil Fuel Down 33.99%
  58. L. Furman, 4/23/17, Energy Portfolios: 4 Years, 3 Months: Sustainable Energy up 120.9%, Fossil Fuel Down 25.05%

A co-founder of Popular Logistics, I hold a BS in Biology, with additional concentrations in Computer Science and Environmental Studies and an MBA in “Managing for Sustainability” from Marlboro College. Available as a speaker and consultant, I can be reached at “Popular Logistics . com” as “L Furman.”

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